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MSU

Michigan State 19 at Boston College 23

BC
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-4.9BC 57.4%Jonathan Kim 51 yd FG GOODAWAY 16 - HOME 16 · Q3 9:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:06 · Jonathan Kim 51 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+5.9Home team on offense−2.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:10: Aidan Chiles run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 12:35: Luca Lombardo 39 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +7.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:22: Treshaun Ward run for 36 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) — BC win probability +17.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:12: Jonathan Kim 27 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +18.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:28: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 42 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) — BC win probability +50.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:08BC 4th & 13 at BC 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:11MSU 4th & 11 at BC 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:40MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:24BC 4th & 4 at MSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:06BC 4th & 9 at BC 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:51BC 4th & 14 at BC 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:20MSU 4th & 3 at BC 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:35BC 4th & 21 at MSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−4.2
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−9.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:06MSU 4th & 8 at BC 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:03BC 4th & 10 at MSU 35, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    59.9%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:13MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−5.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:42BC 4th & 1 at MSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−6.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−22.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:58MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.2%−5.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:12MSU 4th & 8 at BC 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−2.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−26.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:22BC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:10MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:22BC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:28BC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:5265% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
64.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for no gain to the BC 26Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
64.7%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Quindarius Dunnigan for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 22Similar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
64.6%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 27 yds, downed at the BC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:4736% → 36%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
64.5%
Nate Carter run for 5 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+9
64.3%
Aidan Chiles run for 9 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
64.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
64.1%
Nate Carter run for no gain to the BC 35Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+13
64.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 13 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
63.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-1
63.7%
Nate Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 23Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
63.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+41
63.9%
Jonathan Kim 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3FUMBLE
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:0663% → 64%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
63.4%
Boston College Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BC 27Similar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 18
OWN 27
+11
63.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 11 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+12
63.6%
Turbo Richard run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
50
+2
63.9%
Turbo Richard run for 2 yds to the MSU 48Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+15
63.9%
Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Khris Bogle) to the MSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
64.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 11 yds to the MSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
63.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the MSU 13Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+6
63.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the MSU 7 Treshaun Ward fumbled, recovered by MSU Wayne Matthews III W. Matthews III return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3137% → 37%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
63.2%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the MSU 11Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+3
63.0%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 3 yds to the MSU 14Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
63.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
63.4%
Ryan Eckley punt for 50 yds, downed at the BC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 6:0762% → 67%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
62.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
62.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the BC 41Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+9
62.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
50
+12
62.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 12 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
62.8%
Turbo Richard run for 4 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+1
63.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the MSU 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+1
62.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the MSU 32Similar
Q2 14:24
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+5
61.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 5 yds to the MSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
63.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the MSU 21Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+10
62.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 10 yds to the MSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
66.5%
Turbo Richard run for 11 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1235% → 47%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.6%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
64.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
65.4%
Aidan Chiles run for 11 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
63.9%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 7 yds to the MSU 43Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
63.0%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
62.9%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
62.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 12 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+40
62.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 40 yds to the BC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.4%
Aidan Chiles run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5557% → 55%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
57.1%
Turbo Richard run for 1 yd to the BC 20Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
56.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
55.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+4
54.9%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 50 yds , Montorie Foster Jr. returns for 4 yds to the MSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:3145% → 47%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
55.0%
Nate Carter run for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 27Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+17
56.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 17 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
53.4%
Aidan Chiles run for 22 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
51.7%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the BC 33Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-3
51.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 36Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
53.1%
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted Carter Davis return for no gain to the BC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2455% → 50%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
55.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
54.9%
Turbo Richard run for 2 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-10
53.5%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Khris Bogle and Jalen Satchell for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 18Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
50.4%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 1:2350% → 59%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
50.1%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
50.7%
Nate Carter run for 12 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
48.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 14 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
47.4%
Aidan Chiles run for 18 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
46.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 9 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 1
OPP 6
-2
46.8%
Nate Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 8Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
46.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
41.4%
Jonathan Kim 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
45.2%
(00:15) [SG] Kneel down by CASTELLANOS, Thomas at BC22 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12FG
5 plays · -16 yds · 1:5652% → 52%
Q3 14:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
51.7%
Turbo Richard run for 2 yds to the MSU 3Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
51.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for no gain to the MSU 3Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-13
49.7%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Jordan Turner for a loss of 13 yards to the MSU 16Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
-5
44.4%
Boston College Penalty, Delay Of Game (Luca Lombardo) to the MSU 21Similar
Q3 12:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 21
+39
52.0%
Luca Lombardo 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13INT
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
51.8%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSU 20Similar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
52.0%
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted Amari Jackson return for no gain to the MSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14TD
1 play · 36 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
69.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 36 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:1435% → 43%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.4%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
65.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 13 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
63.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 3 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+21
62.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 21 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
60.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
60.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
62.3%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+51
57.4%
Jonathan Kim 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:0361% → 60%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
61.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 15 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
63.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 25 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
65.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
65.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
63.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
60.4%
Liam Connor punt for 33 yds, downed at the MSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 3:4042% → 40%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
58.4%
Nate Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 6Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+3
58.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Michael Masunas for 3 yds to the MSU 9Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+4
59.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for 4 yds to the MSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
57.6%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 12Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 11
OWN 12
0
57.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 11
OWN 12
-1
58.7%
Quindarius Dunnigan run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 11Similar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 12
OWN 11
0
59.9%
Ryan Eckley punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Cameron Martinez at the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 57 yds · 5:2263% → 62%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
62.8%
Turbo Richard run for 7 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
64.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
64.5%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Anthony Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 49Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
62.4%
Boston College Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on KENDALL, Drew (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+27
61.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 27 yds to the MSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
65.7%
CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass short to the right incomplete intended for WARD, Treshaun thrown to the MSU20, clock 01:46. PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the MSU22 to the MSU17. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 5
OPP 17
+1
65.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the MSU 16Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
65.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 3 yds to the MSU 13Similar
Q3 0:26
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+4
64.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
65.7%
Turbo Richard run for 4 yds to the MSU 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
65.7%
Turbo Richard run for 1 yd to the MSU 4Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
64.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the MSU 1 Thomas Castellanos fumbled, recovered by BC return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 13:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
61.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19FG
18 plays · 89 yds · 9:2444% → 73%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
56.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the MSU 6Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
56.4%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+26
58.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 26 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-12
53.9%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku for a loss of 12 yards to the MSU 20Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 22
OWN 20
+14
55.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 14 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+7
55.5%
Aidan Chiles run for 7 yds to the MSU 41Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+4
53.9%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the MSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
50.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Aziah Johnson for 19 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
48.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 5 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
46.4%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
47.1%
Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
44.8%
Nate Carter run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 30Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
47.2%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+19
50.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 19 yds to the BC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
43.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
43.5%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
45.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
27.3%
Jonathan Kim 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4438% → 91%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
37.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 7 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+16
38.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 16 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
39.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
40.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the MSU 42Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+42
91.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 42 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21INT
5 plays · 39 yds · 0:4622% → 30%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+21
75.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 21 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
71.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 12 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
69.9%
Boston College Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Carter Davis) for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
89.5%
[SG] Kneel down by CASTELLANOS, Thomas at BC8 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-3
89.6%
[SG] Kneel down by CASTELLANOS, Thomas at BC5 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 5
-3
89.7%
[SG] Kneel down by CASTELLANOS, Thomas at BC2 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:28
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 42 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
+50.8
FG · Q4 4:12
Jonathan Kim 27 yd FG GOOD
-18.5
TD · Q3 12:22
Treshaun Ward run for 36 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
+17.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com