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USC

USC 24 at Michigan 27

MICH
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:10 · Eddie Czaplicki punt for 57 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 3 yds to the MICH 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Home team on offense−17.1Pregame prior−0.8Garbage-time factor−6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Score differential−4.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:10: Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +13.3 pts (now 43%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:26: Miller Moss pass intercepted Will Johnson return for 42 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada PAT BLOCKED) — MICH win probability +15.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:27: Miller Moss pass complete to Jay Fair for 16 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +20.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 7:01: Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 24 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +36.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:37: Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +62.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 8 of 11USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:56MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:26MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:44USC 4th & 15 at USC 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:42MICH 4th & 2 at USC 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:59USC 4th & 14 at USC 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:00MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.8%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:05USC 4th & 1 at USC 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:14MICH 4th & 9 at USC 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:52USC 4th & 9 at USC 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:15USC 4th & 11 at MICH 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−5.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:47MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 48, up 11
    Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:11MICH 4th & 11 at MICH 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−3.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:55MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:41USC 4th & 2 at USC 18, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:00MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−3.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:43USC 4th & 7 at USC 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:09MICH 4th & 14 at MICH 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−3.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:10USC 4th & 13 at USC 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−5.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:37MICH 4th & 1 at USC 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%−32.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−41.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:12USC 4th & 9 at USC 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 3:10MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:14MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:10USC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:26MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:27USC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:01USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:37MICH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 4:3238% → 40%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MICH 30Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
38.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
38.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 34Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
39.0%
Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
39.4%
Alex Orji pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 5 yds to the MICH 42Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-3
39.8%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 39Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+5
39.7%
Alex Orji run for 5 yds to the MICH 44Similar
Q1 10:26
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
40.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3460% → 59%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
40.0%
Woody Marks run for no gain to the USC 6Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-3
40.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (Paige) to the USC 3Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 13
OWN 3
0
40.3%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 13
OWN 3
-2
40.6%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 1Similar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 15
OWN 1
0
40.9%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 60 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 19 yards to the USC 42. MICH Personal Foul on Brandyn Hillman, enforced 15 yards from the end of the play at the USC 42 to the MICH 43,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4741% → 41%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
41.1%
Kalel Mullings run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 42Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+4
41.0%
Alex Orji run for 4 yds to the MICH 46Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+5
41.2%
Alex Orji pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 5 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
41.4%
Tommy Doman punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3859% → 58%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
41.1%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-9
41.0%
Miller Moss sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 16Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
41.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for no gain to the USC 16Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+12
42.4%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 59 yds, Semaj Morgan returns for 12 yds to the MICH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:3842% → 48%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
42.1%
Alex Orji pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
42.0%
Alex Orji pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+9
41.5%
Alex Orji pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 9 yds to the MICH 46Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+1
42.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
48.2%
Kalel Mullings run for 53 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0353% → 52%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
46.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
46.1%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd to the USC 34Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
47.0%
Woody Marks run for no gain to the USC 34Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
48.1%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:4649% → 51%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
49.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
48.9%
Alex Orji run for 6 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
50.2%
Alex Orji run for 14 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
51.9%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 49Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
51.4%
Alex Orji pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+3
50.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
50.6%
Tommy Doman punt for 35 yds, downed at the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:1549% → 47%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
50.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 10 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
51.1%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd to the USC 24Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
51.5%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
52.3%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
53.0%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:3152% → 66%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
52.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 8 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
53.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
53.6%
Fredrick Moore run for 15 yds to the MICH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
55.6%
Alex Orji run for 6 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+7
57.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 7 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
65.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 41 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:5738% → 38%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
61.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 24 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
60.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Quinten Joyner for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 48Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
61.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+42
62.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 42 yds to the MICH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
60.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
60.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 11Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
62.2%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
61.7%
Michael Lantz 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 23 yds · 2:3562% → 70%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
63.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
67.3%
Alex Orji run for 9 yds to the MICH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
70.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 45Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
71.8%
Alex Orji pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 2 yds to the MICH 47Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+1
73.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 48Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
72.4%
Tommy Doman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 8Similar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
69.8%
Miller Moss pass to Kyron Hudson for 2 yards to the USC 10. PENALTY USC Illegal Block in the Back (McRee) enforced half the distance from the goalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12END OF HALF
12 plays · 41 yds · 1:1930% → 30%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 14
OWN 4
0
70.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+15
70.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 15 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
69.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
70.2%
Miller Moss pass incomplete. PENALTY MICH Offsides on (Moore) enforced 5 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+11
69.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 11 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.7%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+24
69.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jay Fair for 24 yds to the MICH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
68.0%
Kyron Hudson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
68.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jay Fair for 2 yds to the MICH 39Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-12
70.4%
Miller Moss sacked by Kenneth Grant for a loss of 12 yards to the USC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4832% → 43%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.6%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.8%
Woody Marks run for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
67.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 4 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
67.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+13
67.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 13 yds to the MICH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
66.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 48Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+7
68.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Quinten Joyner for 7 yds to the MICH 41Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+15
68.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 15 yds to the MICH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
66.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 12 yds to the MICH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
66.9%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the MICH 12Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+3
70.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 3 yds to the MICH 9Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
57.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4861% → 60%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.3%
Alex Orji pass complete to Kalel Mullings for 2 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
61.8%
Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the MICH 30Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-6
61.2%
Alex Orji sacked by Eric Gentry for a loss of 6 yards to the MICH 24Similar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+8
60.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 50 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for 8 yds to the USC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15INT TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:3239% → 25%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
61.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 6 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+1
59.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 1 yd to the USC 41Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 3
OWN 41
-42
75.2%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Will Johnson return for 42 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:4623% → 24%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.6%
Woody Marks run for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
76.2%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+65
77.2%
Woody Marks run for 65 yds to the MICH 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
74.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (Alani Noa) to the MICH 7Similar
Q3 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
74.3%
Miller Moss run for 1 yd to the MICH 6Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
74.8%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
76.1%
Miller Moss sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 9 Miller Moss fumbled, recovered by MICH Kenneth Grant , return for 18 yards fumbled, recovered by USC , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:3725% → 45%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
75.4%
Quinten Joyner run for 11 yds to the MICH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
54.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jay Fair for 16 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3262% → 61%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.5%
Alex Orji run for 4 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
62.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
61.6%
Alex Orji run for no gain to the MICH 32Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
60.9%
punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:1137% → 32%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
62.8%
Miller Moss sacked by Mason Graham for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 6Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+5
66.0%
Quinten Joyner run for 5 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+7
66.5%
Quinten Joyner run for 7 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
67.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2968% → 64%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
68.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
68.4%
Alex Orji pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-1
65.5%
Alex Orji pass complete to Semaj Morgan for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 34Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+5
64.2%
Tommy Doman punt for 51 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for 5 yds to the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1735% → 33%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
64.6%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
65.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+12
66.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 12 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
63.5%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
62.4%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
64.3%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
67.1%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 50 yds, downed at the MICH 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:1669% → 57%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
69.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MICH 18 Donovan Edwards fumbled, recovered by USC Eric Gentry return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
56.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 2 yards to the MICH 16. PENALTY USC Holding (Eldridge) enforced 10 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:5041% → 77%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+4
59.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 4 yds to the MICH 24Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 16
OPP 24
0
59.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 16
OPP 24
+24
23.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 24 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4735% → 30%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
34.8%
Alex Orji run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 15Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+1
33.7%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 16Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 16
-4
31.8%
Alex Orji sacked by Braylan Shelby for a loss of 4 yards to the MICH 12Similar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 14
OWN 12
+6
30.2%
Tommy Doman punt for 56 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for 6 yds to the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5178% → 75%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
22.1%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
20.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-5
20.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 35Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
24.2%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+3
25.0%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 57 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 3 yds to the MICH 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26TD
14 plays · 89 yds · 3:2531% → 95%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
31.2%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the MICH 15Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-5
29.4%
Michigan Penalty, False Start (Dominick Giudice) to the MICH 10Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+10
29.0%
Alex Orji pass complete to Marlin Klein for 10 yds to the MICH 20Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+63
28.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 63 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
36.0%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the USC 16Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+8
35.2%
Kalel Mullings run for 8 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
34.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
35.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
35.5%
Alex Orji pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
31.5%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:2512% → 11%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.2%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
86.4%
USC Penalty, False Start (Mason Murphy) to the USC 31Similar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+6
88.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 6 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
86.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
87.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+8
89.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 8 yds to the USC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
95.4%
(00:03) Kneel down by ORJI, Alex at USC46 (team loss of 1), clock 00:01.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:37
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+62.1
TD · Q4 7:01
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 24 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-36.1
TD · Q3 1:27
Miller Moss pass complete to Jay Fair for 16 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-20.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com