Try the model
VILL

Villanova 20 at Maryland 38

MD
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · SECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadVILL aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreVILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.4MD 97.6%Ethan Gettman 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 31 · Q4 10:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:33 · Ethan Gettman 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Pregame prior+11.3Home team on offense+25.2Score differential+9.9Garbage-time factor+7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.4Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:39: Nolan Ray run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +1.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:15: Connor Watkins pass complete to Devin Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Gettman KICK) — VILL win probability +5.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:36: Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 9 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:33: Ethan Gettman 37 yd FG GOOD — VILL win probability +1.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:11: Tanner Maddocks run for 8 yds for a TD (Ethan Gettman KICK) — VILL win probability +1.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 3VILL made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 10:51MD 4th & 1 at VILL 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:45VILL 4th & 10 at VILL 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:52VILL 4th & 6 at VILL 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:29MD 4th & 6 at VILL 28, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.9%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:50VILL 4th & 1 at MD 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%−1.0
    72% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:29VILL 4th & 7 at MD 16, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:50VILL 4th & 16 at VILL 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:03VILL 4th & 4 at MD 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:17VILL 4th & 16 at MD 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:33VILL 4th & 16 at MD 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:29VILL 4th & 11 at VILL 22, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:33MD 4th & 3 at VILL 39, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 5VILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:38MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:52MD Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:39MD Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:15VILL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:36MD Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:06MD Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:11VILL Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2295% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 3 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
94.5%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 27Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
94.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 11 yds to the MD 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
94.3%
Roman Hemby run for 9 yds to the MD 47Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+3
94.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
50
+9
94.1%
Roman Hemby run for 9 yds to the VILL 41Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-5
94.1%
Maryland Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VILL 46Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
94.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 4 yds to the VILL 42Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
93.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the VILL 41Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+11
93.7%
Roman Hemby run for 11 yds to the VILL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
93.7%
Roman Hemby run for 12 yds to the VILL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
94.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 18 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:426% → 6%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Isaiah Ragland run for no gain to the VILL 25Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Ethan Gettman punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:4494% → 95%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
93.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
93.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 3
50
+17
93.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 17 yds to the VILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
93.7%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the VILL 31Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+13
93.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 13 yds to the VILL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
93.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 12 yds to the VILL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
94.5%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:546% → 6%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.1%
Connor Watkins run for 4 yds to the VILL 29Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
94.0%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+27
94.1%
Ethan Gettman punt for 55 yds , Braeden Wisloski returns for 27 yds to the MD 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:1495% → 95%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for no gain to the MD 43Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
94.4%
Nolan Ray run for 4 yds to the MD 47Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+7
94.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 7 yds to the VILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
94.4%
Nolan Ray run for 14 yds to the VILL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
94.4%
MJ Morris run for 7 yds to the VILL 25Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
94.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-3
94.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for a loss of 3 yards to the VILL 28Similar
Q1 1:29
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
94.8%
Jack Howes 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 6MISSED FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 7:006% → 6%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.5%
David Avit run for 2 yds to the VILL 27Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
94.5%
Maryland Penalty, Delay Of Game (5 Yards) to the VILL 32Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
94.3%
David Avit run for 3 yds to the VILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
94.7%
Ja'briel Mace run for 23 yds to the MD 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
94.4%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 3 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+8
94.4%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Devin Smith for 8 yds to the MD 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
94.3%
Connor Watkins run for 5 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+1
94.2%
Ja'briel Mace run for 1 yd to the MD 25Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+3
94.4%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Kenyon Miles for 3 yds to the MD 22Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+3
94.5%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 3 yds to the MD 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
94.2%
Connor Watkins run for 3 yds to the MD 16Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
94.2%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
94.4%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
94.5%
Ethan Gettman 33 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:4596% → 98%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
95.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Nolan Ray for 7 yds to the MD 27Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+23
95.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
50
+2
95.8%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the VILL 48Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
95.5%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the VILL 42Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
95.5%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the VILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
95.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Shane Hartzell for a loss of 7 yards to the VILL 45Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 17
OPP 45
-5
95.6%
Maryland Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 22
50
+11
95.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 11 yds to the VILL 39Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+19
95.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 19 yds to the VILL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
95.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+13
95.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 13 yds to the VILL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
95.8%
Nolan Ray run for 1 yd to the VILL 6Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
95.8%
Nolan Ray run for 5 yds to the VILL 1Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.6%
Nolan Ray run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:493% → 3%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.0%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.0%
(02:35) WATKINS, Connor pass short to the left complete for 3 yards to RAGLAND, Isaiah caught at the VIL27 and advanced to the VIL28 (HARRIS, Michael), clock 02:23. PENALTY VIL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on CREGAN, Ryan enforced 5 yards from the VIL25 to the VIL20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
97.1%
WATKINS, Connor pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SANCHEZ, Jaylan thrown to the VIL45, clock 02:10. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on HUMES, Kevyn enforced 15 yards to the VIL35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
96.9%
Isaiah Wright run for a loss of 6 yards to the VILL 29Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
97.0%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
97.0%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
97.0%
Ethan Gettman punt for 51 yds, downed at the MD 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9FUMBLE
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:0498% → 98%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
97.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 16 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
97.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 3 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+10
97.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Colby McDonald for 10 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
97.9%
Colby McDonald run for 20 yds to the VILL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
97.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 17 yds to the VILL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
97.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for a loss of 1 yard to the VILL 15Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+10
97.9%
Colby McDonald run for 10 yds to the VILL 5 Chris Colby fumbled, recovered by VILL Isas Waxter I. Waxter return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
97.0%
(00:20) [NHSG] Kneel down by WATKINS, Connor at VIL4 (team loss of 1), clock 00:11.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 11DOWNS
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:483% → 2%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
97.1%
Isaiah Ragland run for no gain to the VILL 24Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+24
97.2%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Isaiah Ragland for 24 yds to the VILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
96.9%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Kenyon Miles for 3 yds to the MD 49Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
97.3%
Isaiah Ragland run for 5 yds to the MD 44Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+2
97.3%
Connor Watkins run for 2 yds to the MD 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
97.5%
Connor Watkins run for no gain to the MD 42Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
97.8%
(10:47) WATKINS, Connor pass deep to the left incomplete dropped by SANCHEZ, Jaylan thrown to the UMD18, clock 10:39. PENALTY VIL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on CREGAN, Ryan enforced 5 yards from the UMD42 to the UMD47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 15
OPP 47
0
97.8%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+15
97.9%
(10:31) WATKINS, Connor pass deep to the right incomplete intended for KOPECKY, Lucas thrown to the UMD10, clock 10:24. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on HUSKEY, Jalen enforced 15 yards to the UMD32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.5%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-4
97.6%
David Avit run for a loss of 4 yards to the MD 36Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+10
98.0%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Daniel Lopes for 10 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 4
OPP 26
0
97.9%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-24
97.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass intercepted Ty Trinh return for 24 yds to the MD 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 13FG
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:172% → 2%
Q3 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
97.7%
Connor Watkins run for 1 yd to the MD 7Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
97.7%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-9
97.8%
Connor Watkins sacked by Tommy Akingbesote for a loss of 9 yards to the MD 16Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
97.8%
Ethan Gettman 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 14TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 3:002% → 8%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
97.7%
Isaiah Ragland run for 11 yds to the MD 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
97.7%
(06:41) RAGLAND, Isaiah rush to the right for a loss of 2 yards to the UMD44 (OWENS, Daniel), clock 06:27. PENALTY UMD Personal Foul on MILLER, Glendon enforced 15 yards from the UMD42 to the UMD27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
97.4%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
97.5%
David Avit run for 5 yds to the MD 22Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+10
97.6%
Connor Watkins run for 10 yds to the MD 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
97.8%
Connor Watkins sacked by Michael Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the MD 17Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+17
92.2%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Devin Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Gettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3995% → 99%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.8%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 26Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
94.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 11 yds to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
94.9%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-1
95.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 38Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+37
96.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 37 yds to the VILL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
96.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 15 yds to the VILL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
96.6%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the VILL 9Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 9 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 16FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:581% → 2%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.8%
Isaiah Ragland run for 3 yds to the VILL 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
98.8%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Isaiah Ragland for 6 yds to the VILL 34Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+17
98.9%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Devin Smith for 17 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
99.0%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Lucas Kopecky for 9 yds to the MD 40Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+7
99.0%
Connor Watkins run for 7 yds to the MD 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
98.9%
David Avit run for 6 yds to the MD 27Similar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
98.9%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
98.9%
David Avit run for 1 yd to the MD 13Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-7
99.0%
Connor Watkins sacked by Taizse Johnson and Daniel Owens for a loss of 7 yards to the MD 20Similar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 16
OPP 20
+37
97.6%
Ethan Gettman 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2798% → 100%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
98.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for a loss of 3 yards to the MD 22Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+61
98.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 61 yds to the VILL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
98.5%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the VILL 14Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
99.8%
MJ Morris run for 14 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.7%
Connor Watkins pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 3 yds to the VILL 26Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-5
99.7%
Villanova Penalty, False Start (Kenyon Miles) to the VILL 21Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+1
99.7%
Connor Watkins run for 1 yd to the VILL 22Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Connor Watkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
99.8%
Ethan Gettman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Braeden Wisloski at the MD 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
99.8%
Cameron Edge pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 10 yds to the VILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
99.8%
Colby McDonald run for 8 yds to the VILL 38Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Cameron Edge pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-1
99.8%
MJ Morris run for a loss of 1 yard to the VILL 39Similar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
99.8%
Bryce McFerson punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 20TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:120% → 2%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.8%
Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Devin Smith for 5 yds to the VILL 25Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
David Avit run for 1 yd to the VILL 26Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+15
99.8%
(04:15) MADDOCKS, Tanner pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SANCHEZ, Jaylan thrown to the VIL50, clock 04:07. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on JENKINS, Judah enforced 15 yards to the VIL41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
99.8%
Isaiah Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the VILL 39Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+15
99.8%
Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Devin Smith for 15 yds to the MD 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
99.7%
Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Nate Hill for 6 yds to the MD 40Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+4
99.7%
Isaiah Wright run for 4 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
99.8%
Tanner Maddocks pass complete to Chris Colby for 24 yds to the MD 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
99.7%
Eli Smith run for 4 yds to the MD 8Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
97.9%
Tanner Maddocks run for 8 yds for a TD (Ethan Gettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:3299% → 99%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.1%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the MD 26Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
99.2%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the MD 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:15
Connor Watkins pass complete to Devin Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Gettman KICK)
-5.6
TD · Q3 0:36
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 9 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q4 1:11
Tanner Maddocks run for 8 yds for a TD (Ethan Gettman KICK)
-1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com