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IOWA

Iowa 31 at Minnesota 14

MINN
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:04 · Mark Crawford punt for 40 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 8 yds to the IOWA 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Home team on offense+0.1Score differential+0.0Pregame prior−7.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:20: Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 3 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +13.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:21: Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 11 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +10.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:56: Kaleb Johnson run for 15 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +12.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:43: Kaleb Johnson run for 40 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +17.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:13: Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +10.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:04MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:42IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:29MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:04IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:02MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:59IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:31MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:58IOWA 4th & 21 at IOWA 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−2.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:50IOWA 4th & 11 at IOWA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:06MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.7%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:45MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−1.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:47MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:43IOWA 4th & 4 at MINN 28, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.3%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−7.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:58MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:15IOWA 4th & 5 at MINN 31, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:03IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:20MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:21MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:56IOWA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:43IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:13IOWA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:5143% → 44%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
42.7%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
42.7%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for 5 yds to the MINN 26Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+11
42.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 11 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
43.2%
Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the MINN 40Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
43.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 2 yds to the MINN 42Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
43.7%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+8
43.5%
Mark Crawford punt for 40 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 8 yds to the IOWA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1256% → 56%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
43.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Lachey for 6 yds to the IOWA 32Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
43.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the IOWA 32Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
44.0%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
44.2%
Rhys Dakin punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3INT
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:2444% → 44%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
44.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 20 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
44.4%
Max Brosmer pass intercepted Jay Higgins return for no gain to the MINN 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 2:0456% → 59%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
43.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 5 yds to the MINN 33Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+8
43.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Jacob Gill for 8 yds to the MINN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
43.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the MINN 24Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+23
43.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 23 yds to the MINN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3142% → 42%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.2%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the MINN 28Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
42.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for 2 yds to the MINN 30Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
41.9%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
41.6%
Mark Crawford punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1859% → 58%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
41.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 38Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
41.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Kaleb Johnson for no gain to the IOWA 38Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
41.2%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
41.8%
Rhys Dakin punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:5242% → 41%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
41.9%
Max Brosmer run for 1 yd to the MINN 17Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+5
41.8%
Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the MINN 22Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+7
41.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 7 yds to the MINN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
42.0%
Marcus Major run for 18 yds to the MINN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
42.5%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
42.3%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 49Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-5
42.0%
Minnesota Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MINN 44Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
41.0%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
40.8%
Mark Crawford punt for 54 yds, downed at the IOWA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:5559% → 59%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
41.4%
Jaziun Patterson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 4Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+13
41.4%
Jaziun Patterson run for 13 yds to the IOWA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
40.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 6 yds to the IOWA 23Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+3
40.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Lachey for 3 yds to the IOWA 26Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
40.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
40.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the IOWA 29Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+1
40.3%
Jaziun Patterson run for 1 yd to the IOWA 30Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
40.6%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
41.3%
Rhys Dakin punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2141% → 38%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
40.6%
Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the MINN 19Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
40.7%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 21Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
38.8%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
38.3%
Mark Crawford punt for 45 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for no gain to the IOWA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:2261% → 59%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 27Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
38.9%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-13
39.8%
Cade McNamara sacked by Cody Lindenberg for a loss of 13 yards to the IOWA 14Similar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
40.7%
Rhys Dakin punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 4:3040% → 54%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
39.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 16 yds to the IOWA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
41.2%
Minnesota Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MINN 47Similar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+9
38.7%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 9 yds to the IOWA 44Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+7
40.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 7 yds to the IOWA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
40.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for 1 yd to the IOWA 36Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+5
40.0%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for 5 yds to the IOWA 31Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+28
39.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 28 yds to the IOWA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 3 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2853% → 51%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.6%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
46.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Kaleb Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the IOWA 24Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
48.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for no gain to the IOWA 24Similar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
48.9%
Rhys Dakin punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Koi Perich at the MINN 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:2351% → 65%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
50.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 6 yds to the MINN 38Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+28
52.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 28 yds to the IOWA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
54.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jacob Simpson for 4 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
54.5%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+17
53.0%
Darius Taylor run for 17 yds to the IOWA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
54.4%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
54.4%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the IOWA 11Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
64.7%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 11 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:1938% → 38%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
62.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 21 yds to the IOWA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
59.8%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
60.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Lachey for no gain to the IOWA 46Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+24
62.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 24 yds to the MINN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:5938% → 55%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
61.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 20 yds to the MINN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+32
59.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 17 yds to the MINN 30 for a 1ST down Minnesota Penalty, Personal Foul (Cody Lindenberg) to the MINN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
57.4%
Jaziun Patterson run for no gain to the MINN 15Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
57.4%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
45.0%
Kaleb Johnson run for 15 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 4:1152% → 50%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.5%
Marcus Major run for 7 yds to the MINN 32Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
53.3%
Marcus Major run for 1 yd to the MINN 33Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
51.2%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the MINN 34Similar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
49.8%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
52.5%
Max Brosmer sacked by Nick Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the MINN 31Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+6
51.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 6 yds to the MINN 37Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
51.2%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
49.6%
Mark Crawford punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:5652% → 74%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
47.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the IOWA 27Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
48.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the IOWA 31Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+18
48.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 18 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
44.6%
Jaziun Patterson run for 9 yds to the MINN 42Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
43.8%
Jaziun Patterson run for 2 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
26.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 40 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5032% → 29%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
32.2%
Max Brosmer run for 3 yds to the MINN 24Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
32.2%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
30.2%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
29.4%
Mark Crawford punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:5774% → 78%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
26.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the IOWA 41Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
26.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Hayden Large for 5 yds to the IOWA 46Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
25.7%
Jaziun Patterson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
50
+9
24.6%
Jacob Gill run for 9 yds to the MINN 41Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+7
24.2%
Jaziun Patterson run for 7 yds to the MINN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
23.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the MINN 31Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
23.2%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+3
24.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the MINN 28Similar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
22.3%
Drew Stevens 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3822% → 20%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
21.5%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
21.4%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-1
20.3%
Darius Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 20Similar
Q4 14:58
4TH & 11
OWN 20
+11
19.5%
Mark Crawford punt for 43 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 11 yds to the IOWA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 3:3880% → 95%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+33
19.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 33 yds to the MINN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
18.9%
Kaden Wetjen run for 6 yds to the MINN 13Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+4
18.4%
Jaziun Patterson run for 4 yds to the MINN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
16.2%
Brendan Sullivan run for 4 yds to the MINN 5Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
16.0%
Jaziun Patterson run for 4 yds to the MINN 1Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.5%
Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22INT
7 plays · 42 yds · 3:037% → 6%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
7.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 8 yds to the MINN 27Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+1
6.5%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the MINN 28Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
6.2%
Max Brosmer run for 3 yds to the MINN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
6.0%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 2 yds to the MINN 33Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+15
5.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 15 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
6.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 13 yds to the IOWA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
6.4%
Max Brosmer pass intercepted Quinn Schulte return for 15 yds to the IOWA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 21 yds · 6:3995% → 98%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
4.6%
Jaziun Patterson run for 4 yds to the IOWA 45Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
4.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Hayden Large for 3 yds to the IOWA 48Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+1
3.9%
Jaziun Patterson run for 1 yd to the IOWA 49Similar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+5
3.8%
(05:48) DAKIN, Rhys punt 38 yards to the MINN13, fair catch by PERICH, Koi, clock 05:43. PENALTY MINN Running Into the kicker on JOYNER, Jah enforced 5 yards from the IOWA49 to the MINN46 and results in a 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
3.3%
Jaziun Patterson run for 5 yds to the MINN 41Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
3.1%
Jaziun Patterson run for 2 yds to the MINN 39Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+3
2.6%
Jaziun Patterson run for 3 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
2.2%
Jaziun Patterson run for 2 yds to the MINN 34Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+4
1.6%
Jaziun Patterson run for 4 yds to the MINN 30Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 4
OPP 30
-1
1.6%
Jaziun Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 31Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 5
OPP 31
-7
1.8%
Brendan Sullivan run for a loss of 7 yards to the MINN 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:402% → 2%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
1.9%
Jordan Nubin run for 5 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
1.9%
Jordan Nubin run for 5 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:43
Kaleb Johnson run for 40 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
-17.4
TD · Q2 4:20
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 3 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q3 12:56
Kaleb Johnson run for 15 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
-12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com