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MD

Maryland 27 at Virginia 13

UVA
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:38 · Bryce McFerson punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense+2.6Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Pregame prior+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:54: Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 19 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +17.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:01: Anthony Colandrea run for 10 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +14.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:55: Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 26 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +14.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:31: Jack Howes 33 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +6.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:10: Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +10.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8MD made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 12:16MD 4th & 15 at MD 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:16MD 4th & 15 at MD 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:07UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:33MD 4th & 13 at MD 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:09MD 4th & 11 at MD 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:59MD 4th & 9 at UVA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:50UVA 4th & 2 at MD 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:34MD 4th & 2 at MD 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:27UVA 4th & 3 at MD 12, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%−0.6
    86% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:38MD 4th & 6 at UVA 46, down 6
    Close callPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:17UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 13, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:29UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:25MD 4th & 2 at midfield, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:03UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 20, down 1
    Close callPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:49MD 4th & 19 at UVA 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−5.8
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−14.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:18UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:00MD 4th & 2 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.8%−2.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:31MD 4th & 5 at UVA 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−14.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:46MD 4th & 1 at UVA 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−4.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−15.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:09UVA 4th & 10 at MD 37, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%
    40% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 0:54MD Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:01UVA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:55MD Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:10MD Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 5 yds · 2:3546% → 46%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
54.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 6 yds to the MD 32Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-1
54.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 31Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+5
54.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Josiah McLaurin for 5 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
54.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 5 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
54.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-10
54.1%
(12:50) Shotgun Edwards Jr.,Billy pass complete short right to Felton,Tai caught at UMD37, for 7 yards to the UMD48 (McDonald,Trey; Butler,Kameron) PENALTY UMD Holding (Knotts,Shaleak) 10 yards from UMD41 to UMD31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 15
OWN 31
0
54.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
54.5%
Bryce McFerson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the UVA 20Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
54.5%
Bryce McFerson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the UVA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5754% → 54%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
54.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 6 yds to the UVA 26Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
54.4%
Kobe Pace run for 9 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+55
54.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 65 yds Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jahmeer Carter) to the UVA 33Similar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 12
OWN 33
+5
54.4%
Anthony Colandrea run for 5 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
54.7%
Kobe Pace run for no gain to the UVA 38Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
54.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
54.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Braeden Wisloski at the MD 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:2146% → 45%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
54.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the MD 6Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 13
OWN 6
+5
54.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 5 yds to the MD 11Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 11
-5
54.8%
PENALTY UMD False Start (Roye Jr.,Andre) 5 yards from UMD11 to UMD06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 13
OWN 6
0
54.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 13
OWN 6
0
55.1%
Bryce McFerson punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the UVA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4FUMBLE
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:0255% → 56%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
54.9%
Chris Tyree run for 8 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+33
55.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 33 yds to the MD 21 for a 1ST down Maryland Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kaden Prather) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
55.2%
Kobe Pace run for 6 yds to the MD 15Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+6
55.2%
Kobe Pace run for 6 yds to the MD 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
55.2%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the MD 8Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
55.2%
Xavier Brown run for 3 yds to the MD 5Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+7
55.5%
Anthony Colandrea run for 7 yds to the MD 12 Anthony Colandrea fumbled, recovered by MD Donnell BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1446% → 45%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
54.3%
Shotgun Ray,Nolan rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMD15 (McDonald,Trey) PENALTY UMD Holding (Bah,Aliou) 6 yards from UMD12 to UMD06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 16
OWN 6
0
54.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 16
OWN 6
+10
54.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 10 yds to the MD 16Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 16
-5
54.7%
PENALTY UMD False Start (Kaltenberger,Josh) 5 yards from UMD16 to UMD11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 11
OWN 11
0
55.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 11
OWN 11
0
55.3%
Bryce McFerson punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the UVA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2155% → 55%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
55.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 5 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+2
56.0%
Anthony Colandrea run for 2 yds to the UVA 35Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
55.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted Dante Trader Jr. return for no gain to the UVA 35Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
55.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted Dante Trader Jr. return for no gain to the UVA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4247% → 46%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
52.6%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the UVA 34Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
52.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
52.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+52
53.7%
Jack Howes 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8FG
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:0356% → 58%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
55.8%
(01:59) Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass incomplete deep left to Fields,Malachi thrown to UMD30 PENALTY UMD Pass Interference (Harley,Chantz) 15 yards from UVA34 to UVA49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+45
57.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Trell Harris for 45 yds to the MD 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
57.5%
Kobe Pace run for 4 yds to the MD 2Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
57.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
57.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
57.9%
Will Bettridge 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:0743% → 43%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
57.3%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+17
57.5%
Roman Hemby run for 17 yds to the MD 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
56.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for no gain to the MD 34Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
57.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+8
58.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 8 yds to the MD 42Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
57.5%
Bryce McFerson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10FG
15 plays · 77 yds · 4:5958% → 63%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
58.0%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the UVA 16Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+1
58.0%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UVA 17Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+9
57.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 9 yds to the UVA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
58.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 4 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+9
58.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 9 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
59.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Trell Harris for 19 yds to the MD 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
60.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kameron Courtney for 3 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+8
61.0%
Xavier Brown run for 8 yds to the MD 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
61.5%
Xavier Brown run for 12 yds to the MD 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
61.6%
Xavier Brown run for 5 yds to the MD 14Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+2
61.8%
Noah Vaughn run for 2 yds to the MD 12Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
61.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
63.3%
Will Bettridge 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:4236% → 32%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
63.8%
Colby McDonald run for 11 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
63.7%
Colby McDonald run for no gain to the MD 36Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
64.2%
Colby McDonald run for 7 yds to the MD 43Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
63.5%
Colby McDonald run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
50
0
62.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 10
50
+6
63.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 6 yds to the UVA 44Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-5
63.2%
(05:40) PENALTY UMD False Start (Roye Jr.,Andre) 5 yards from UVA44 to UVA49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+8
64.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 8 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-5
67.2%
(04:46) PENALTY UMD Encroachment (Roye Jr.,Andre) 5 yards from UVA41 to UVA46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
67.7%
Bryce McFerson punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:1368% → 65%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
68.3%
Xavier Brown run for 1 yd to the UVA 8Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 8
-4
68.5%
(04:04) PENALTY UVA False Start (Steen,Blake) 4 yards from UVA08 to UVA04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+2
68.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 2 yds to the UVA 6Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+7
67.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 7 yds to the UVA 13Similar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 4
OWN 13
+11
64.6%
Daniel Sparks punt for 45 yds , Braeden Wisloski returns for 11 yds to the UVA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 1:1633% → 51%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
66.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 6 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+3
68.3%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
68.9%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the UVA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
68.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 3 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+15
66.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 15 yds to the UVA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
66.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
48.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 19 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 0:3951% → 71%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
50.9%
Anthony Colandrea run for 9 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
53.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+13
52.2%
Kobe Pace run for 13 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+39
54.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 39 yds to the MD 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
70.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for 10 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:2467% → 65%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.2%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UVA 24Similar
Q3 14:35
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
66.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:29
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
65.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Braeden Wisloski at the MD 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:2736% → 55%
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
64.1%
Nolan Ray run for 2 yds to the MD 34Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+5
64.3%
Nolan Ray run for 5 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
63.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 5 yds to the MD 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
63.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 8 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+7
61.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 7 yds to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
61.3%
Nolan Ray run for 7 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+8
59.3%
Nolan Ray run for 8 yds to the UVA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
44.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 26 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17INT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3652% → 52%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 7 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
54.2%
Xavier Brown run for 14 yds to the UVA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
55.5%
Xavier Brown run for no gain to the UVA 46Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
53.5%
Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the UVA 46Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
51.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3153% → 52%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
47.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 5 yds to the MD 47Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+4
46.5%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+1
46.1%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 2
50
0
48.1%
Bryce McFerson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the UVA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1151% → 49%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
51.4%
Noah Vaughn run for 2 yds to the UVA 16Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+4
51.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 4 yds to the UVA 20Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
49.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+4
48.6%
Daniel Sparks punt for 48 yds , Braeden Wisloski returns for 4 yds to the MD 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:0352% → 61%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+37
47.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 37 yds to the UVA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
42.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
43.6%
Nolan Ray run for 2 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+15
44.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 15 yds to the UVA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
42.0%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the UVA 9Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
41.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
44.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Jahmeer Carter for a loss of 10 yards to the UVA 19Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+37
39.0%
Jack Howes 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2040% → 36%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-7
39.7%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Quashon Fuller for a loss of 7 yards to the UVA 16Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 17
OWN 16
+4
38.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 4 yds to the UVA 20Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 13
OWN 20
0
37.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 13
OWN 20
0
36.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:4167% → 76%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
33.4%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the MD 44Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
33.3%
Colby McDonald run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 2
50
0
32.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 2
50
+3
34.4%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the UVA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
31.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 5 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+9
30.7%
Nolan Ray run for 9 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
29.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 13 yds to the UVA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
28.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
29.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Ryan Manning for 5 yds to the UVA 15Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
30.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
23.8%
Jack Howes 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23FUMBLE
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:5223% → 23%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
23.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 15 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
25.5%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
25.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+10
23.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 10 yds Malachi Fields fumbled, recovered by MD Quashon FullerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:4680% → 96%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+36
20.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 36 yds to the UVA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
18.3%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the UVA 14Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+6
15.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 6 yds to the UVA 8Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+1
16.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the UVA 7Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+2
18.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the UVA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
15.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the UVA 3Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
14.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the UVA 1Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 1:574% → 3%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
3.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 10 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST down Maryland Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Michael Harris) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
50
+5
3.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Trell Harris for 5 yds to the MD 45Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
3.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Trell Harris for 3 yds to the MD 42Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+5
3.2%
Jack Griese run for 5 yds to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
3.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
3.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
3.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+9
2.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for 9 yds to the MD 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26END OF GAME
14 plays · 34 yds · 4:5897% → 99%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
3.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Preston Howard for 1 yd to the MD 29Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+6
2.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 6 yds to the MD 35Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+6
2.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 6 yds to the MD 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
2.5%
Nolan Ray run for 1 yd to the MD 42Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+10
1.8%
Nolan Ray run for 10 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
1.6%
Nolan Ray run for 3 yds to the UVA 45Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
1.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+6
1.1%
Nolan Ray run for 6 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
1.0%
B. Edwards Jr. takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-1
1.0%
B. Edwards Jr. takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:54
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 19 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
-17.9
TD · Q2 0:01
Anthony Colandrea run for 10 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
+14.9
TD · Q3 10:55
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 26 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
-14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com