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TROY

Troy 21 at Iowa 38

IOWA
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:31 · Robert Cole punt for 43 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for no gain to the IOWA 42 , returns for no gain to the IOWA 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Pregame prior+19.8Home team on offense+3.4Score differential+0.9Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:44: Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +9.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:30: Matthew Caldwell pass intercepted Jermari Harris return for 28 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +12.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:58: Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Devonte Ross for 62 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +12.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:05: Kaleb Johnson run for 33 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +10.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:01: Jaziun Patterson run for 39 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:58TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:15IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:11TROY 4th & 21 at TROY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:49IOWA 4th & 1 at TROY 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:09TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:24IOWA 4th & 7 at TROY 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:34TROY 4th & 6 at IOWA 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:00IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:20IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:19TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 28, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:31TROY 4th & 29 at TROY 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−4.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:47IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−2.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:24TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:13TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 11:12IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:08TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:44IOWA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:30IOWA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:58TROY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:05IOWA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:01IOWA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:015% → 6%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ethan Conner for 9 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q1 14:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
94.5%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the TROY 34Similar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
94.4%
Robert Cole punt for 49 yds, downed at the IOWA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:3094% → 94%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
94.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the IOWA 18Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+1
94.2%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the IOWA 19Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+10
94.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Jacob Gill for 10 yds to the IOWA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
93.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Jacob Gill for 9 yds to the IOWA 38Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+7
93.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 7 yds to the IOWA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
93.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the IOWA 48Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
93.7%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
93.6%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
93.5%
Rhys Dakin punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 4:547% → 8%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
93.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 6 yds to the TROY 26Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
93.3%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
93.2%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the TROY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Peyton Higgins for no gain to the TROY 31Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
92.9%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Landon Parker for 15 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
92.6%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 6
50
-10
92.4%
(06:57) QB Keeper CALDWELL, Matthew rush to the right for no gain to the TRO50 (CASTRO, Sebastian), clock 06:49. PENALTY TRO Holding on KING, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the TRO50 to the TRO40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+10
92.4%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 6
50
-15
92.0%
Matthew Caldwell sacked for a loss of 15 yards to the TROY 35 Matthew Caldwell fumbled, recovered by TROY Elijah Prather , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 21
OWN 35
0
92.3%
Robert Cole punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:1692% → 91%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+39
92.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for 39 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
92.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 4 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
92.1%
Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
91.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
91.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+12
91.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Kamari Moulton for 12 yds to the TROY 17Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
91.6%
Cade McNamara run for 1 yd to the TROY 16Similar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 1
OPP 16
-1
91.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:399% → 10%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
90.6%
Jarris Williams run for 4 yds to the TROY 21Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+7
90.3%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ethan Conner for 7 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
90.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
90.2%
Jarris Williams run for 3 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
90.2%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
90.4%
Robert Cole punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:5191% → 93%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
91.0%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 46Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
90.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 4
50
+19
90.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Jarriett Buie for 19 yds to the TROY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
90.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 6 yds to the TROY 25Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+4
90.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the TROY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
90.6%
Troy Penalty, Personal Foul (3 Yards) to the TROY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
90.6%
Troy Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Yards) to the TROY 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:038% → 12%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 8 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
91.2%
(10:32) CALDWELL, Matthew pass to the right incomplete intended for BEASON, Zeriah thrown to the TRO40; QB hurried by LLEWELLYN, Max, clock 10:27. PENALTY TRO Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HUDSON, Zerian enforced 5 yards from the TRO33 to the TRO28 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
91.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 5 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
91.1%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
88.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for 63 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4289% → 89%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
88.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 19 yds to the IOWA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+29
89.2%
Kamari Moulton run for 29 yds to the TROY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
89.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the TROY 26Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
89.3%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+2
88.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Jacob Gill for 2 yds to the TROY 24Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
89.1%
Drew Stevens 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:4910% → 12%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.7%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the TROY 26Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
89.6%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ethan Conner for 3 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+23
89.5%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ethan Conner for 23 yds to the IOWA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
88.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ethan Conner for no gain to the IOWA 48Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
88.0%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the IOWA 44Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
87.7%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
88.4%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2788% → 77%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
88.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Lachey for 7 yds to the IOWA 27Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
88.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Lachey for 5 yds to the IOWA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
88.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Leshon Williams for 3 yds to the IOWA 35Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
87.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Terrell Washington Jr. for 5 yds to the IOWA 40Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-6
87.5%
Cade McNamara sacked by Jordan Stringer for a loss of 6 yards to the IOWA 34Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+77
76.5%
Rhys Dakin punt for 43 yds , Devonte Ross returns for 77 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:4177% → 77%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 5 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
76.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 8 yds to the IOWA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:3379% → 76%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
78.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Jacob Gill for 12 yds to the IOWA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
79.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 46Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-8
79.3%
Cade McNamara sacked by Julian Peterson for a loss of 8 yards to the IOWA 38Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+10
76.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Kaleb Johnson for 10 yds to the IOWA 48Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
75.6%
Rhys Dakin punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4925% → 25%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
75.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
74.8%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Ethan Conner for 8 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
74.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
75.4%
Robert Cole punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 4:2775% → 84%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
74.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 8 yds to the IOWA 38Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+5
76.6%
Kamari Moulton run for 5 yds to the IOWA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
75.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Lachey for 13 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
76.3%
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the TROY 40Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+33
75.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Kaden Wetjen for 33 yds to the TROY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
76.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 5 yds to the TROY 2Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
74.9%
Hayden Large run for no gain to the TROY 2Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.1%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -19 yds · 2:1219% → 18%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.1%
Matthew Caldwell pass complete to Devonte Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 24Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-4
81.0%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 20Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-5
81.9%
Troy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TROY 15Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-9
81.7%
Matthew Caldwell sacked by Max Llewellyn for a loss of 9 yards to the TROY 6Similar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 29
OWN 6
+43
82.2%
Robert Cole punt for 43 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for no gain to the IOWA 42 , returns for no gain to the IOWA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3282% → 78%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
82.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 39Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
80.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for no gain to the IOWA 39Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 13
OWN 39
0
79.1%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
77.9%
Rhys Dakin punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Devonte Ross at the TROY 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-28
90.0%
Matthew Caldwell pass intercepted Jermari Harris return for 28 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3110% → 22%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.9%
Damien Taylor run for 8 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
88.9%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 5 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
78.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Devonte Ross for 62 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5180% → 93%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 8 yds to the IOWA 33Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
80.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
80.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for 11 yds to the IOWA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
83.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 7
50
+8
83.7%
Leshon Williams run for 8 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
83.8%
Leshon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 44Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+11
82.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Jacob Gill for 11 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+33
92.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 33 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:398% → 6%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.7%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
91.5%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Landon Parker for 11 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
90.7%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 36 Tucker Kilcrease fumbled, recovered by TROY Elijah Prather , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
92.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 12
OWN 36
-4
93.0%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Brian Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 32Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
93.6%
Robert Cole punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 3:1492% → 98%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
91.9%
Leshon Williams run for no gain to the IOWA 29Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
92.6%
Leshon Williams run for 3 yds to the IOWA 32Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+18
93.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
50
+5
94.2%
Jaziun Patterson run for 5 yds to the TROY 45Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
94.4%
Jaziun Patterson run for 6 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
98.4%
Jaziun Patterson run for 39 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:472% → 2%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.6%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
98.1%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 11 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
98.1%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 39Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+4
98.1%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 4 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
98.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+6
98.2%
Robert Cole punt for 37 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 6 yds to the IOWA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2099% → 99%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
98.7%
Jaziun Patterson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 28Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
98.7%
Jaziun Patterson run for 7 yds to the IOWA 35Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+1
99.0%
Jaziun Patterson run for 1 yd to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.0%
Jaziun Patterson run for 4 yds to the IOWA 40Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
99.0%
Jaziun Patterson run for 8 yds to the IOWA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:30
Matthew Caldwell pass intercepted Jermari Harris return for 28 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q3 0:58
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Devonte Ross for 62 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q4 12:05
Kaleb Johnson run for 33 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
+10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com