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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:23 · James Evans punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the IU 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:21: Justice Ellison run for 1 yd for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +12.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:42: T.J. Harden run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +8.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:55: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +12.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 13:13: Mateen Bhaghani 34 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +7.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:28: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 23 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +4.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 3:33UCLA 4th & 1 at IU 46, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.1%70% to convertField goal36.1%−2.023% to makePunt36.9%−1.2average punt
- Q1 0:00UCLA 4th & 7 at IU 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snapGo for it36.3%−0.336% to convertField goalTheir call36.6%70% to makePunt33.1%−3.5average punt
- Q2 11:16IU 4th & 6 at UCLA 33, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.8%40% to convertField goal67.3%−0.549% to makePunt66.4%−1.4average punt
- Q2 9:55UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 40, down 14Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snapGo for it32.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.0%−0.4average punt
- Q3 9:37UCLA 4th & 10 at IU 10, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snapGo for it21.4%−1.024% to convertField goalTheir call22.4%88% to makePunt16.5%−5.9average punt
- Q4 13:13UCLA 4th & 8 at IU 16, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snapGo for it6.1%−1.332% to convertField goalTheir call7.4%81% to makePunt-0.3%−7.6average punt
- Q4 2:36UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 43, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 0:23IU 4th & 9 at IU 13, up 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1IU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 8:31IU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.6%97% to makeGo for two56.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:28IU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.2%97% to makeGo for two59.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:21IU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.2%97% to makeGo for two79.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:42UCLA Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.9%97% to makeGo for two23.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:55IU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.1%97% to makeGo for two86.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:28IU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:28IU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIUDrive 1TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2960% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
40.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 23 yds to the IU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+24
40.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 24 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+10
40.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 10 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+8
41.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 8 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
41.2%
(09:16) ROURKE, Kurtis pass to the left incomplete intended for MCCULLEY, Donaven thrown to the UCL0, clock 09:14. PENALTY UCL Pass Interference on DAVIES, Jaylin enforced 5 yards to the UCL2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
39.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 3 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2FUMBLE1 play · -2 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
39.8%
Ethan Garbers run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 17 Ethan Garbers fumbled, recovered by IU Mikail Kamara M. Kamara return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3TD4 plays · 17 yds · 0:5261% → 64%
UCLADrive 4MISSED FG15 plays · 42 yds · 7:2638% → 35%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
37.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 4 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+6
37.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 6 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 18
OWN 37
+9
36.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 9 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+15
35.6%
(02:13) GARBERS, Ethan pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for PIERRE, Bryce thrown to the IND23, clock 02:10. PENALTY IND Roughing the Passer on WALKER, Jailin enforced 15 yards from the IND41 to the IND26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-9
35.9%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Amare Ferrell for a loss of 9 yards to the IU 31Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+8
34.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 8 yds to the IU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5DOWNS8 plays · 44 yds · 3:4367% → 70%
UCLADrive 6PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1631% → 31%
IUDrive 7TD13 plays · 90 yds · 5:2871% → 87%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
29.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 6 yds to the IU 16Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+13
29.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 13 yds to the IU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
28.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Zach Horton for 3 yds to the IU 32Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+15
28.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 15 yds to the IU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+5
27.3%
UCLA Penalty, Offsides (Jacob Busic) to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+33
25.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 33 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD9 plays · 78 yds · 3:3119% → 28%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
18.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 9 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+15
18.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 15 yds to the IU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+22
18.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 22 yds to the IU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9END OF HALF3 plays · 5 yds · 1:3623% → 25%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
24.3%
(14:55) QB Keeper GARBERS, Ethan rush up the middle for a loss of 5 yards, GARBERS, Ethan fumbled at UCL20 , recovered by UCL GARBERS, Ethan at the UCL20, returned 0 yards to the UCL20 (WEST, CJ), clock 14:34. PENALTY IND Targeting on WEST, CJ enforced 15 yards from the UCL25 to the UCL40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10FG9 plays · 65 yds · 4:1726% → 26%
IUDrive 11TD10 plays · 87 yds · 4:3674% → 91%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
25.6%
(09:04) ROURKE, Kurtis pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SARRATT, Elijah thrown to the IND43, clock 09:00. PENALTY UCL Pass Interference on DAVIES, Jaylin enforced 15 yards to the IND39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
24.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Zach Horton for 17 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
23.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 9 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+5
22.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Zach Horton for 5 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
22.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Zach Horton for 6 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+15
21.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 15 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
8.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12FG15 plays · 66 yds · 6:3413% → 15%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
12.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 1 yd to the UCLA 19Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
11.9%
(03:23) GARBERS, Ethan pass up the middle intercepted by FISHER, Aiden at the UCL34 broken up by PONDS, D'Angelo intended for STURDIVANT, J.Michael. Fisher return for 11 yards to the UCL23 (GILMER, Kwazi), clock 03:14 (After review, play stands as called on the field). PENALTY IND Unnecessary Roughness on SHARPE, Jamari declined IND Pass Interference on PONDS, D'Angelo enforced 12 yards to the UCL36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
11.4%
(02:42) GARBERS, Ethan sacked for a loss of 8 yards at the UCL28 (CARR JR., Lanell), clock 02:36. PENALTY IND Roughing the Passer on CARR JR., Lanell enforced 15 yards from the UCL36 to the IND49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
11.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jack Pedersen for 6 yds to the IU 43Similar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
12.4%
T.J. Harden run for 29 yds UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Carlin) to the IU 35Similar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 16
OPP 35
-15
11.7%
(00:46) GARBERS, Ethan scrambles up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the IND31 (CARR JR., Lanell), clock 00:40. PENALTY UCL Personal Foul on UNIJE, Reuben enforced 15 yards from the IND35 to the UCL50 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 24
OPP 43
+10
9.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 10 yds to the IU 33Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+15
9.2%
(14:14) GARBERS, Ethan pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for STURDIVANT, J.Michael thrown to the IND5, clock 14:09 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY IND Targeting on PONDS, D'Angelo enforced 15 yards from the IND33 to the IND18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4391% → 99%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
7.7%
(11:56) LAWTON, Ty Son rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the IND48 (ADDISON, Bryan), clock 11:52. PENALTY IND Holding on LYNCH, Bray enforced 10 yards from the IND40 to the IND30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+14
7.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 14 yds to the IU 44Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+9
6.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 9 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-10
5.9%
Indiana Penalty, Offensive Holding (Zach Horton) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+17
5.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 17 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+23
1.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 23 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14INT2 plays · 6 yds · 0:162% → 2%
IUDrive 15TD4 plays · 40 yds · 1:3699% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 2:510% → 0%
IUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:55
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q2 4:21
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)
-12.3
TD · Q2 0:42
T.J. Harden run for 1 yd for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
+8.9