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CMU

Central Michigan 9 at Illinois 30

ILL
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:07 · David Chapeau punt for 45 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 28 yds to the CMU 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+32.1Home team on offense+1.3Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:55: David Olano 49 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +3.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Ethan Moczulski 59 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +3.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:05: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 20 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +5.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:43: David Olano 34 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +2.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:34: Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:30CMU 4th & 16 at CMU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:30ILL 4th & 4 at CMU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:58CMU 4th & 11 at ILL 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:13ILL 4th & 26 at ILL 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:07CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:17ILL 4th & 16 at CMU 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:48CMU 4th & 2 at ILL 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−1.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:55ILL 4th & 8 at CMU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:36CMU 4th & 6 at ILL 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−3.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:12CMU 4th & 28 at CMU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−1.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:43ILL 4th & 16 at CMU 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:57ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:58CMU 4th & 7 at ILL 7, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−3.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:01CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:49ILL 4th & 1 at CMU 47, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:05ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:05ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:34ILL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:309% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.7%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
90.7%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
90.7%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Boyd,Evan) 5 yards from CMU24 to CMU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
90.7%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+10
90.4%
David Chapeau punt for 50 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 10 yds to the ILL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD
12 plays · 59 yds · 6:2590% → 90%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
90.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 8 yds to the ILL 49Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+1
90.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 1
50
+4
90.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the CMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
90.4%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Fernando Sanchez III for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 14
50
+1
90.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the CMU 49Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+13
90.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 13 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
90.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 3 yds to the CMU 33Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
90.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
90.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+5
90.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 5 yds to the CMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
90.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 14 yds to the CMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
90.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 11 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 5:0710% → 13%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.6%
Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the CMU 28Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
89.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Chris Parker for 16 yds to the CMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
89.4%
Marion Lukes run for 8 yds to the ILL 48Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+4
89.3%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
89.3%
Joe Labas pass complete to Evan Boyd for 12 yds to the ILL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
89.1%
Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Dylan Rosiek) to the ILL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
89.1%
Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the ILL 9Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-10
89.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lukes,Marion rush left for 9 yards gain to the ILL00, End Of Play PENALTY CMU Holding (Swartout,Brayden) 10 yards from ILL09 to ILL19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 16
OPP 19
0
89.3%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 16
OPP 19
+5
89.5%
Joe Labas pass complete to Myles Bailey for 5 yds to the ILL 14Similar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+32
87.3%
Tristan Mattson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:4587% → 86%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.4%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Henderson,Brandon) 5 yards from ILL25 to ILL20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+16
87.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 16 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+28
87.6%
Josh McCray run for 28 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-15
88.0%
Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete deep left to Franklin,Zakhari thrown to CMU00 PENALTY ILL Personal Foul (Priestly,Melvin) 15 yards from CMU36 to ILL49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 25
OWN 49
0
87.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 25
OWN 49
+7
87.0%
Josh McCray run for 7 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 44
-8
86.8%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Elijah Rikard for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 48Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 26
OWN 48
0
86.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Donte Kent at the CMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0613% → 13%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
86.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Nathan VanTimmeren for 7 yds to the CMU 23Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
86.4%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
86.7%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 3
OWN 23
+28
86.8%
David Chapeau punt for 45 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 28 yds to the CMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:5087% → 84%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
87.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 2 yds to the CMU 38Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-5
87.0%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Arkin,Tanner) 5 yards from CMU38 to CMU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+12
86.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 12 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+1
86.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the CMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
87.2%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Da'Raun McKinney for a loss of 5 yards to the CMU 35Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+1
86.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the CMU 36Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 16
OPP 36
0
86.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 16
OPP 36
+54
84.4%
David Olano 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 4:2916% → 17%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
84.5%
Joe Labas pass complete to Marion Lukes for no gain to the CMU 36Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
84.7%
Solomon Davis run for 9 yds to the CMU 45Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
83.9%
Joe Labas pass complete to Solomon Davis for 4 yds to the CMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
83.7%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 47Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+10
84.2%
Joe Labas pass complete to Marion Lukes for 10 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
83.6%
Marion Lukes run for no gain to the ILL 43Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
82.8%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:5385% → 86%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
84.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 8 yds to the CMU 49Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+16
85.2%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 16 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
85.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ca'Lil Valentine for 6 yds to the CMU 27Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+1
85.6%
Pat Bryant run for 1 yd to the CMU 28Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+3
85.1%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the CMU 31Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+49
86.3%
David Olano 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 1:1914% → 17%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.7%
Joe Labas run for 5 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
85.3%
Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the CMU 34Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
85.2%
Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the CMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
85.0%
Joe Labas pass complete to Evan Boyd for 5 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+9
84.1%
Joe Labas pass complete to Jordyn Williams for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
50
+35
83.8%
Myles Bailey run for 35 yds to the ILL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
82.3%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the ILL 14Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+3
82.8%
Nahree Biggins run for 3 yds to the ILL 11Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
84.5%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
83.2%
Tristan Mattson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:3684% → 88%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+31
83.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 31 yds to the CMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
84.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Luke Altmyer for 3 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
84.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+59
88.0%
Ethan Moczulski 59 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5586% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
86.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 17 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+33
87.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Collin Dixon for 33 yds to the CMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
87.6%
PENALTY CMU Offside (Odjugo,Pius) 5 yards from CMU25 to CMU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 20
0
87.6%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the CMU 20Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
92.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 20 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 3:539% → 8%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.5%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
91.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lukes,Marion rush left for 1 yard loss to the CMU28 (Coleman,Seth; Meed,Ryan) PENALTY CMU Holding (Koivisto,Martin) 10 yards from CMU29 to CMU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+21
91.6%
Joe Labas pass complete to Evan Boyd for 21 yds to the CMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
90.9%
Joe Labas sacked by Dennis Briggs Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the CMU 35Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
91.6%
B.J. Harris run for no gain to the CMU 35Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 15
OWN 35
-13
91.7%
Joe Labas sacked by Gabe Jacas for a loss of 13 yards to the CMU 22 Joe Labas fumbled, recovered by CMU Joe Labas , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 28
OWN 22
0
92.1%
David Chapeau punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ILL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 4:2993% → 96%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
92.7%
Josh McCray run for 4 yds to the ILL 18Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+23
92.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 23 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
93.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 14 yds to the CMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
93.1%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Bryant,Pat) 5 yards from CMU45 to CMU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 15
50
+16
93.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 16 yds to the CMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+24
92.7%
Josh McCray run for 24 yds to the CMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
92.6%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the CMU 6Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
92.6%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Crisler,Zy) 5 yards from CMU06 to CMU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
92.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
92.3%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Wilcher,Kenari) 5 yards from CMU11 to CMU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
92.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
92.7%
PENALTY CMU Offside (Pace,Jonah) 5 yards from CMU34 to CMU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 5
OPP 29
0
92.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+34
95.5%
David Olano 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14INT
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:185% → 6%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
94.9%
Joe Labas pass complete to Solomon Davis for 30 yds to the ILL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
94.3%
Nahree Biggins run for 4 yds to the ILL 41Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
94.1%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+13
94.4%
Joe Labas run for 13 yds to the ILL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
93.8%
Joe Labas pass intercepted Xavier Scott return for no gain to the ILL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2896% → 96%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.0%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the ILL 28Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
95.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 4 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
95.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
95.7%
Hugh Robertson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Donte Kent at the CMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 3:595% → 7%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
95.2%
B.J. Harris run for 12 yds to the CMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
95.3%
Joe Labas run for 6 yds to the ILL 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+8
95.0%
Joe Labas run for 8 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.2%
Tyler Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
95.2%
B.J. Harris run for 5 yds to the ILL 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+8
95.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Labas,Joe pass incomplete short left to Williams,Jordyn thrown to ILL23, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Strain,Tyler) 8 yards from ILL35 to ILL27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
94.4%
Joe Labas pass complete to Jesse Prewitt III for 6 yds to the ILL 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
94.4%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+14
94.8%
B.J. Harris run for 14 yds to the ILL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.4%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.4%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.8%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
92.7%
Tristan Mattson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:2396% → 99%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
96.2%
Luke Altmyer run for 7 yds to the CMU 39Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+22
96.1%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 22 yds to the CMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
96.1%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the CMU 16Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+14
96.1%
Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short right to Elzy,Malik thrown to CMU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CMU Pass Interference (Rikard,Elijah) 14 yards from CMU16 to CMU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Nahree Biggins run for no gain to the CMU 25Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.0%
Nahree Biggins run for 3 yds to the CMU 28Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.0%
Joe Labas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
99.0%
David Chapeau punt for 47 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 3 yds to the ILL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:1299% → 100%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
99.3%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 6 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+2
99.3%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 2 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 2
OWN 36
-5
99.4%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Kreutz,Josh) 5 yards from ILL36 to ILL31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+13
99.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 13 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.4%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the ILL 46Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
99.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+7
99.4%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 7 yds to the CMU 47Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Hugh Robertson punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20END OF GAME
7 plays · 52 yds · 3:491% → 1%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.4%
Tyler Jefferson pass complete to Nahree Biggins for 4 yds to the CMU 24Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
99.4%
Tyler Jefferson run for 1 yd to the CMU 25Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+22
99.4%
Tyler Jefferson pass complete to B.J. Harris for 22 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
99.4%
Tyler Jefferson pass complete to Gavin Harris for 16 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
99.3%
B.J. Harris run for 7 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+4
99.2%
Nahree Biggins run for 4 yds to the ILL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
99.3%
Tyler Jefferson sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:05
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 20 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
+5
TD · Q4 9:34
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
+3.2
FG · Q2 0:00
Ethan Moczulski 59 yd FG GOOD
+3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com