2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadSDAK aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreSDAK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:59 · Atticus Bertrams punt for 53 yds , Carter Bell returns for 13 yds to the SDAK 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:48: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 50 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +1.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:07: Nathanial Vakos 24 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +1.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:38: Keyondray Jones-Logan run for 35 yds for a TD (Will Leyland KICK) — SDAK win probability +8.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: SDAK has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:21: Nathanial Vakos 50 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +4.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:41: Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +5.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SDAK made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 9:13SDAK 4th & 2 at WIS 47, down 7Close callPunted · 13.4% before the snapGo for it13.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:12WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 39, up 7Close callPunted · 86.4% before the snapGo for it86.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:10SDAK 4th & 8 at SDAK 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snapGo for it13.3%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.4%average punt
- Q1 0:42SDAK 4th & 8 at WIS 46, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snapGo for it12.1%−0.134% to convertField goal11.7%−0.523% to makePuntTheir call12.2%average punt
- Q2 12:59WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 25, up 14Close callPunted · 88.5% before the snapGo for it88.7%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 7:14SDAK 4th & 7 at WIS 8, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.7% before the snapGo for it11.4%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call11.5%90% to makePunt8.7%−2.8average punt
- Q2 0:07WIS 4th & 2 at SDAK 7, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snapGo for it87.8%−0.253% to convertField goalTheir call88.1%91% to makePunt86.2%−1.8average punt
- Q3 11:07WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 24, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snapGo for it81.2%−1.919% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.1%average punt
- Q3 6:50SDAK 4th & 7 at WIS 36, down 7Close callPunted · 18.3% before the snapGo for it18.6%37% to convertField goal18.1%−0.542% to makePuntTheir call17.7%−0.9average punt
- Q3 5:06SDAK 4th & 15 at WIS 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.2% before the snapGo for it14.7%−2.215% to convertField goalTheir call16.9%83% to makePunt10.5%−6.4average punt
- Q3 2:21WIS 4th & 8 at SDAK 33, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snapGo for it78.1%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call78.2%49% to makePunt76.9%−1.3average punt
- Q3 0:27SDAK 4th & 1 at SDAK 34, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 16.5% before the snapGo for it17.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.2%−1.7average punt
- Q4 14:29WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snapGo for it86.7%−1.040% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%average punt
- Q4 12:40SDAK 4th & 9 at SDAK 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it13.4%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.3%average punt
- Q4 7:41WIS 4th & 1 at SDAK 1, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.4%59% to convertField goal84.9%−3.594% to makePunt76.2%−12.2average punt
- Q4 6:18SDAK 4th & 15 at SDAK 20, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SDAK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:03WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.0%97% to makeGo for two87.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:48WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.9%97% to makeGo for two87.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:38SDAK Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.0%97% to makeGo for two14.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:41WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call94.4%−0.497% to makeGo for two94.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWISDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4491% → 91%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 8 yds to the WIS 33 Chez Mellusi fumbled, recovered by WIS return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+32
90.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 32 yds to the SDAK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
90.8%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Mi'Quise Grace for a loss of 3 yards to the SDAK 38Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+22
90.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Bryson Green for 22 yds to the SDAK 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 28 yds · 2:509% → 10%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
90.6%
South Dakota Penalty, Delay Of Game (Roman Tillmon) to the SDAK 20Similar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+25
90.6%
Aidan Bouman pass complete to Travis Theis for 25 yds to the SDAK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
90.5%
Aidan Bouman pass complete to Quaron Adams for 4 yds to the SDAK 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5390% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5110% → 10%
WISDrive 5TD3 plays · 58 yds · 1:1490% → 92%
SDAKDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 4:069% → 9%
Q1 3:23
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+5
90.9%
Aidan Bouman pass complete to Travis Theis for 5 yds to the SDAK 45Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+7
90.9%
Aidan Bouman pass complete to Carter Bell for 7 yds to the WIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
90.5%
Aidan Bouman sacked by Darryl Peterson for a loss of 7 yards to the SDAK 45Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 17
OWN 45
+9
90.8%
Aidan Bouman pass complete to Travis Theis for 9 yds to the WIS 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3591% → 91%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+9
91.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 9 yds to the WIS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 13
OWN 15
+10
91.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Pauling for 10 yds to the WIS 25Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+13
91.0%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 53 yds , Carter Bell returns for 13 yds to the SDAK 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 8FG13 plays · 57 yds · 5:389% → 11%
Q2 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+24
90.5%
Aidan Bouman pass complete to JJ Galbreath for 24 yds to the WIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+10
90.2%
Aidan Bouman pass complete to Tristan Michaud for 10 yds to the WIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+4
90.7%
Aidan Bouman pass complete to Travis Theis for 4 yds to the WIS 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9FG16 plays · 68 yds · 7:0190% → 93%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
90.2%
(07:08) VAN DYKE, Tyler pass to the left complete for 11 yards to PAULING, Will caught at the WIS36 and advanced to the WIS36 (GANUES, Josiah), clock 06:58. PENALTY WIS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BRUNNER, Joe enforced 5 yards from the WIS25 to the WIS20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
90.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Bryson Green for 7 yds to the SDAK 33Similar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
91.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jackson Acker for 4 yds to the SDAK 22Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+7
91.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Cade Yacamelli for 7 yds to the SDAK 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+6
91.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Cade Yacamelli for 6 yds to the SDAK 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
92.7%
(00:07) Kneel down by BOUMAN, Aidan at USD23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 11TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:228% → 18%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+35
82.4%
Keyondray Jones-Logan run for 35 yds for a TD (Will Leyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2386% → 84%
SDAKDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 4:1815% → 16%
SDAKDrive 14FG5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3620% → 20%
Q3 5:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-8
81.3%
Aidan Bouman sacked by Elijah Hills for a loss of 8 yards to the WIS 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15FG8 plays · 49 yds · 2:4081% → 87%
Q3 4:01
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+21
81.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Pauling for 21 yds to the SDAK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
83.1%
(03:24) VAN DYKE, Tyler pass to the right complete for 8 yards to GREEN, Bryson caught at the USD37 and advanced to the USD37 (MCKELVEY, Teven), out of bounds, clock 03:21. PENALTY USD Holding on HARDMAN, Gabriel enforced 10 yards from the USD45 to the USD35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
83.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 2 yds to the SDAK 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4617% → 15%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.5%
Aidan Bouman pass complete to Keyondray Jones-Logan for 4 yds to the SDAK 29Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
84.3%
Aidan Bouman pass complete to Jack Martens for 2 yds to the SDAK 34Similar
Q3 0:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
84.8%
Tyler Ebel punt for 39 yds , Vinny Anthony II returns for 3 yds to the WIS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5088% → 88%
SDAKDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5516% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19TD13 plays · 85 yds · 4:4289% → 96%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
88.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 8 yds to the WIS 23 for a 1ST down South Dakota Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on MCKELVEY, Teven enforced (Teven McKelvey) to the WIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+22
90.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jackson Acker for 7 yds to the SDAK 49 for a 1ST down South Dakota Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Teven McKelvey) to the SDAK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+15
90.4%
South Dakota Penalty, Targeting on SHORTER, Dennis enforced (Dennis Shorter) to the SDAK 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
91.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 3 yds to the SDAK 1Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.8%
South Dakota Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SDAK 0 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:156% → 5%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:38
Keyondray Jones-Logan run for 35 yds for a TD (Will Leyland KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q4 7:41
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+5.6
FG · Q3 2:21
Nathanial Vakos 50 yd FG GOOD
+4.2