2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:43 · Cole Snyder pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:37: Will Rogers pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 41 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +3.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:49: Jesus Gomez 29 yd FG GOOD — EMU win probability +0.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:07: Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 13 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +3.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:24: Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +3.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:57: Jeremiah Hunter 24 Yd pass from Will Rogers ( PAT blocked) — WASH win probability +3.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5EMU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 13:24WASH 4th & 3 at WASH 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snapGo for it93.5%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.5%average punt
- Q1 11:32EMU 4th & 1 at WASH 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.0%71% to convertField goal6.9%−0.170% to makePunt6.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:29EMU 4th & 3 at WASH 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.3%44% to convertField goal8.2%−0.193% to makePunt7.8%−0.6average punt
- Q1 7:29EMU 4th & 3 at WASH 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.3%44% to convertField goal8.2%−0.193% to makePunt7.8%−0.6average punt
- Q1 3:49WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 39, tiedClose callPunted · 90.6% before the snapGo for it90.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:07EMU 4th & 10 at WASH 39, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 10.8% before the snapGo for it10.8%30% to convertField goalTheir call10.7%−<0.136% to makePunt10.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 13:20WASH 4th & 19 at WASH 16, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snapGo for it86.6%−0.810% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.4%average punt
- Q2 10:24WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt85.5%−0.8average punt
- Q2 4:49EMU 4th & 8 at WASH 11, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snapGo for it13.3%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call13.5%87% to makePunt11.3%−2.2average punt
- Q2 1:51EMU 4th & 16 at EMU 19, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snapGo for it8.4%−1.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%average punt
- Q3 12:15EMU 4th & 16 at EMU 17, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it5.9%−1.014% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q3 6:54EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 47, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q3 0:50WASH 4th & 3 at EMU 11, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.6%50% to convertField goalTheir call98.5%−0.287% to makePunt97.2%−1.4average punt
- Q4 14:03EMU 4th & 1 at WASH 49, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.9%−0.2average punt
- Q4 9:43EMU 4th & 7 at WASH 32, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%37% to convertField goal0.9%−<0.151% to makePunt0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:09EMU 4th & 17 at WASH 32, down 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.114% to convertField goalTheir call0.8%51% to makePunt0.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:31EMU 4th & 14 at EMU 30, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 9:37WASH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.4%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:07WASH Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.6%97% to makeGo for two89.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:24WASH Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:57WASH Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWASHDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3194% → 94%
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 6 yds to the WASH 31Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
93.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 1 yd to the WASH 32Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
93.7%
Jack McCallister punt blocked by Justin Jefferson, punt out-of-bounds at the WASH 32 blocked by Justin JeffersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2DOWNS12 plays · 29 yds · 5:406% → 8%
WASHDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 36 yds · 3:3292% → 91%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+12
92.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 12 yds to the WASH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
91.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 9 yds to the WASH 40Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+9
91.0%
Jack McCallister punt for 46 yds , Oran Singleton returns for 9 yds to the EMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4FG10 plays · 53 yds · 3:359% → 11%
WASHDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 1:4089% → 88%
Q2 13:20
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+6
87.6%
Jack McCallister punt for 54 yds , Oran Singleton returns for 6 yds to the EMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6FUMBLE3 plays · 31 yds · 0:3212% → 13%
WASHDrive 7TD7 plays · 82 yds · 2:5688% → 90%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
87.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 18 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST down Washington Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the WASH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
87.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 5 yds to the WASH 29Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
86.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 1 yd to the WASH 30Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+29
85.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 29 yds to the EMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
89.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 41 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8FG12 plays · 64 yds · 4:4012% → 14%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
86.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jere Getzinger for 15 yds to the WASH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
86.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for 7 yds to the WASH 32Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+19
85.6%
Cole Snyder run for 6 yds to the WASH 26 for a 1ST down Washington Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Carson Bruener) to the WASH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
85.4%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Illegal Formation (Justin Jefferson) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-9
85.4%
Cole Snyder sacked by Zach Durfee for a loss of 9 yards to the WASH 22Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 19
OPP 22
+11
86.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jere Getzinger for 11 yds to the WASH 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9TD4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2687% → 91%
Q2 3:07
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
90.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 13 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · -6 yds · 1:0910% → 9%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Oran Singleton for 1 yd to the EMU 26Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-9
90.0%
Cole Snyder sacked by Elinneus Davis for a loss of 9 yards to the EMU 17Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+4
90.6%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 50 yds , Denzel Boston returns for 4 yds to the WASH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11TD9 plays · 65 yds · 1:1991% → 93%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
91.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 20 yds to the EMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+26
91.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 11 yds to the EMU 34 for a 1ST down Eastern Michigan Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jaivian Norman) to the EMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+15
91.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 15 yds to the EMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 2:347% → 6%
Q3 13:32
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-5
93.1%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Snyder,Cole pass complete short middle to Singleton,Oran caught at EMU34, for 5 yards to the EMU34 (Shaw,Jordan) PENALTY EMU Illegal Formation 5 yards from EMU29 to EMU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-7
93.4%
Cole Snyder sacked by Zach Durfee for a loss of 7 yards to the EMU 17Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 16
OWN 17
0
93.6%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WASH 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14TD4 plays · 58 yds · 2:0794% → 98%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
94.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 21 yds to the EMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
94.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 7 yds to the EMU 30Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+6
94.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 6 yds to the EMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 2:472% → 2%
Q3 8:43
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+27
97.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 27 yds to the EMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+6
97.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 6 yds to the EMU 47Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
97.7%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WASH 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16FG13 plays · 56 yds · 5:5898% → 99%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
98.0%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 24 yds to the EMU 23 Washington Penalty, Offensive Holding (Keleki Latu) to the EMU 40Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+32
98.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 42 yds Washington Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gaard Memmelaar) to the WASH 49Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+11
98.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 11 yds to the EMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
98.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 9 yds to the EMU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17FG19 plays · 43 yds · 7:361% → 1%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
98.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jere Getzinger for 6 yds to the EMU 48Similar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
98.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 8 yds to the WASH 39Similar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
98.8%
Cole Snyder sacked by Sebastian Valdez for a loss of 5 yards to the WASH 40Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+6
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quinn Fracassi for 6 yds to the WASH 32Similar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+7
98.9%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Snyder,Cole pass incomplete short middle to Singleton,Oran thrown to WASH23, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WASH Pass Interference (McCutcheon,Dyson) 7 yards from WASH32 to WASH25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-7
98.7%
Cole Snyder sacked by Deshawn Lynch for a loss of 7 yards to the WASH 32Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 17
OPP 32
0
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Markus Allen for no gain to the WASH 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18FUMBLE8 plays · 59 yds · 3:4799% → 100%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.3%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 12 yds to the WASH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
99.5%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Keleki Latu for 7 yds to the WASH 46Similar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
99.6%
Demond Williams Jr. run for 13 yds to the EMU 16 Demond Williams Jr. fumbled, recovered by EMU Jordan ToneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q4 3:39
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+15
99.4%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Snyder,Cole rush middle for 0 yards to the EMU19 (Davis,Elinneus) PENALTY WASH Face Mask (Davis,Elinneus) 15 yards from EMU19 to EMU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 10
OWN 34
-4
99.4%
Cole Snyder sacked by Lance Holtzclaw for a loss of 4 yards to the EMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20END OF GAME8 plays · 62 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:37
Will Rogers pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 41 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q3 9:57
Jeremiah Hunter 24 Yd pass from Will Rogers ( PAT blocked)
+3.4
TD · Q2 0:24
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+3.2