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USU

Utah State 0 at USC 48

USC
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:08 · Elliott Nimrod 52 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 191Pregame prior+1.5Home team on offense+35.6Score differential+30.9Blowout margin+19.8Garbage-time factor+8.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:23: Quinten Joyner run for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:09: Miller Moss pass incomplete — USC win probability +2.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:35: Michael Lantz kickoff for 61 yds , Jalen Royals return for 23 yds to the USU 42 Utah State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USU 17 — USC win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:04: Makai Lemon 6 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Michael Lantz Kick) — USC win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:13USC 4th & 6 at USU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:33USU 4th & 8 at USC 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:27USU 4th & 8 at USC 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:42USU 4th & 3 at USU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:01USU 4th & 4 at USU 44, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:30USU 4th & 11 at USU 21, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:41USC 4th & 7 at USU 7, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:11USU 4th & 12 at USC 43, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:23USU 4th & 11 at USU 24, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:16USU 4th & 12 at USU 23, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:35USC 4th & 7 at USU 47, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:12USU 4th & 10 at USU 12, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:32USC 4th & 1 at USU 9, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:08USU 4th & 20 at USC 35, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:23USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:31USC Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:15USC Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:32USC Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1FG
19 plays · 77 yds · 3:4297% → 96%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
96.6%
Woody Marks run for 8 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
96.5%
Woody Marks run for 8 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+8
96.5%
Woody Marks run for 8 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+8
96.5%
Woody Marks run for 8 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
96.4%
USC Penalty, False Start (Woody Marks) to the USC 28Similar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
96.4%
(14:00) PENALTY USC False Start (Marks,Woody) 5 yards from USC33 to USC28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+33
96.4%
Woody Marks run for 33 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+33
96.4%
Woody Marks run for 33 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
96.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 12 yds to the USU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
96.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 12 yds to the USU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
96.2%
Quinten Joyner run for 18 yds to the USU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
96.2%
Quinten Joyner run for 18 yds to the USU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
96.1%
Quinten Joyner run for 3 yds to the USU 6Similar
Q1 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
96.1%
Quinten Joyner run for 3 yds to the USU 6Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
96.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
96.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
96.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
96.0%
Michael Lantz 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
17 plays · 29 yds · 3:464% → 5%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jalen Royals for 12 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jalen Royals for 12 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
95.8%
(10:34) BARNES, Bryson pass to the left complete for 2 yards to ROYALS, Jalen caught at the USU35 and advanced to the USU39 (GENTRY, Eric;MASCARENAS-ARNOLD, Easton), clock 10:29. PENALTY USU Personal Foul on BOWLES, Wyatt enforced 15 yards from the USU37 to the USU22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
95.8%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnes,Bryson pass complete short left to Royals,Jalen caught at USU35, for 2 yards to the USU39 (Gentry,Eric; Mascarenas-Arnold,Easton) PENALTY USU Personal Foul (Bowles,Wyatt) 15 yards from USU37 to USU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+13
95.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jalen Royals for 13 yds to the USU 35Similar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+13
95.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jalen Royals for 13 yds to the USU 35Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+17
95.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 17 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+17
95.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 17 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
95.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the USC 47Similar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
95.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the USC 47Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
95.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
95.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+1
95.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 1 yd to the USC 46Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+1
95.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Rahsul Faison for 1 yd to the USC 46Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
95.3%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 12Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
95.3%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
13 plays · 88 yds · 2:5995% → 96%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-7
95.2%
USC Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (-7 Yards) to the USC 7Similar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+9
95.2%
Woody Marks run for 9 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+9
95.2%
Woody Marks run for 9 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+19
95.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 19 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+19
95.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 19 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
95.0%
Woody Marks run for 11 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
95.0%
Woody Marks run for 11 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
94.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 13 yds to the USU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+32
95.0%
Quinten Joyner run for 32 yds to the USU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+32
94.9%
Quinten Joyner run for 32 yds to the USU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.5%
Quinten Joyner run for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:345% → 5%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.1%
Jalen Royals run for 3 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
95.1%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the USU 32Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
95.1%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the USU 32Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
95.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
95.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
95.0%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
17 plays · 77 yds · 4:3395% → 97%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
95.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 6 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
95.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 6 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+24
95.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 24 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+24
95.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 24 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.1%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
95.0%
Woody Marks run for 4 yds to the USU 43Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+5
94.9%
(00:42) MOSS, Miller pass deep up the middle intercepted by LARSEN, Ike at the USU20 intended for MCREE, Lake. Larsen return for 40 yards to the USC40 (PREGNON, Emmanuel), out of bounds, clock 00:32. PENALTY USU Offsides on SPIRES, Blaine enforced 5 yards from the USU43 to the USU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+5
94.8%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Moss,Miller pass intercepted by Larsen,Ike at USU20 Larsen,Ike return 40 yards to the USC40 (Pregnon,Emmanuel), out of bounds PENALTY USU Offside (Spires,Blaine) 5 yards from USU43 to USU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+5
94.8%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds to the USU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+5
94.8%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds to the USU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
94.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 16 yds to the USU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
94.8%
Woody Marks run for 4 yds to the USU 13Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+8
94.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 8 yds to the USU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.6%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
94.6%
PENALTY USU Delay Of Game (Iniguez Jr.,Gabriel) 3 yards from USU05 to USU02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.6%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:583% → 3%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jalen Royals for 7 yds to the USU 32Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
97.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 6 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
97.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+6
97.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Herschel Turner for 6 yds to the USU 44Similar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
97.4%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 34 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+34
97.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 34 yds Lake McRee fumbled, recovered by USU Clyde WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 4:163% → 3%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
97.5%
Rahsul Faison run for no gain to the USU 10Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+9
97.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jalen Royals for 9 yds to the USU 19Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
97.5%
Bryson Barnes run for 3 yds to the USU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
97.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jalen Royals for 6 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-3
97.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Rahsul Faison for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 25Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-4
97.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Rahsul Faison for a loss of 4 yards to the USU 21Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
97.5%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9FG
17 plays · 54 yds · 4:4498% → 98%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
97.8%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
97.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 9 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
97.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 8 yds to the USU 39Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+5
97.9%
PENALTY USU Delay Of Game (Williams,Taz) 5 yards from USU39 to USU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
98.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 13 yds to the USU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
98.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Jay Fair for 2 yds to the USU 19Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+10
98.0%
Bryan Jackson run for 10 yds to the USU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
98.1%
Bryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the USU 8Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
98.2%
Bryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the USU 10Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
98.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 3 yds to the USU 7Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
98.0%
Michael Lantz 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10INT
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:142% → 3%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
97.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 20 yds to the USU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.4%
Bryson Barnes pass intercepted Easton Mascarenas-Arnold return for no gain to the USU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
10 plays · 40 yds · 1:0598% → 99%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
98.4%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds to the USU 35Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-6
98.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 4 yds to the USU 31 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Makai Lemon) to the USU 41Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+19
98.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 19 yds to the USU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
98.3%
Woody Marks run for 7 yds to the USU 15Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-3
98.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 18Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+12
98.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 12 yds to the USU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.0%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.4%
Makai Lemon 6 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Rahsul Faison run for no gain to the USU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:451% → 0%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 6 yds to the USU 36Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
98.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Kyrese White for 7 yds to the USU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.5%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+16
98.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 16 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
98.8%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-5
99.5%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Eric Gentry for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 43Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the USC 43Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 12
OPP 43
-1
99.6%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Kamari Ramsey for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 44 Bryson Barnes fumbled, recovered by USU , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
11 plays · 56 yds · 5:32100% → 100%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
99.5%
Miller Moss run for 7 yds to the USU 49Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+9
99.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Quinten Joyner for 9 yds to the USU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.6%
Quinten Joyner run for 5 yds to the USU 35Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+5
99.6%
Quinten Joyner run for 5 yds to the USU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 4 yds to the USU 26Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
99.6%
Bryan Jackson run for 4 yds to the USU 22Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+7
99.6%
Quinten Joyner run for 7 yds to the USU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.7%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+11
99.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kade Eldridge for 11 yds to the USU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.7%
Quinten Joyner run for 2 yds to the USU 2Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Quinten Joyner 2 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:010% → 0%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jalen Royals for no gain to the USU 25Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.8%
Bryson Barnes sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the USU 24Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+4
99.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 39 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for 4 yds to the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:01100% → 100%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
99.8%
Quinten Joyner run for 1 yd to the USC 42Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+22
99.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Kyle Ford for 22 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
99.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 9 yds to the USU 27Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
99.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Bryan Jackson for no gain to the USU 27Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+6
99.8%
Bryan Jackson run for 6 yds to the USU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
99.8%
Bryan Jackson run for 12 yds to the USU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
99.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 1 yd to the USU 8Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jay Fair for 1 yd to the USU 7Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Jayden Maiava 7 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 5 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
99.9%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Faison,Rahsul rush left for 3 yards gain to the USU33 (Williams,Marcelles), out of bounds PENALTY USU Holding (Motes,Cole) 10 yards from USU30 to USU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the USU 23Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:37100% → 100%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
50
+3
99.9%
A'Marion Peterson run for 3 yds to the USU 47Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Robert Freeman IV at the USU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
99.9%
PENALTY USU False Start (Bowles,Wyatt) 5 yards from USU12 to USU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+8
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Kyrese White for 8 yds to the USU 15Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+3
99.9%
Herschel Turner run for 3 yds to the USU 18Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 4
OWN 18
-6
99.9%
PENALTY USU Delay Of Game 6 yards from USU18 to USU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
99.9%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
99.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Charles Ross for 11 yds to the USU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
Bryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the USU 37Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+19
99.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jaden Richardson for 19 yds to the USU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
99.9%
A'Marion Peterson run for 6 yds to the USU 12Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+3
99.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Walker Lyons for 3 yds to the USU 9Similar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
A'Marion Peterson 9 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21MISSED FG
13 plays · 40 yds · 5:170% → 0%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
100.0%
Herschel Turner run for 19 yds to the USU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
100.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 7 yds Josh Sterzer fumbled, recovered by USU Colby BowmanSimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-1
100.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Colby Bowman for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 4
50
+8
100.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Colby Bowman for 8 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
100.0%
Herschel Turner run for 2 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+15
100.0%
Herschel Turner run for 15 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
100.0%
Herschel Turner run for 5 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+4
100.0%
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-5
100.0%
(02:00) PENALTY USU False Start (Motes,Cole) 5 yards from USC24 to USC29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+6
100.0%
Herschel Turner run for 6 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 20
OPP 35
+52
100.0%
Elliott Nimrod 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
100.0%
Kneel down by USC at USC33 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-2
100.0%
Kneel down by USC at USC31 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:09
Miller Moss pass incomplete
+2
TD · Q2 0:04
Makai Lemon 6 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Michael Lantz Kick)
+1.4
TD · Q1 4:23
Quinten Joyner run for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
+0.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com