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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:21 · Jordon Simmons run for 7 yds to the AKR 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:54: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 6 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +4.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:09: Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +2.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:45: Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 32 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK) — AKR win probability +4.1 pts (now 10%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:56: Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +4.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:14: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Chris Long for 58 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 10:06AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it7.4%−0.124% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q1 7:57RUTG 4th & 3 at AKR 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt91.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:35AKR 4th & 24 at RUTG 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.5% before the snapGo for it9.2%−0.36% to convertField goalTheir call9.5%68% to makePunt8.9%−0.6average punt
- Q2 12:49AKR 4th & 15 at AKR 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.3%average punt
- Q2 10:14RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it89.5%−0.338% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.8%average punt
- Q2 6:06AKR 4th & 11 at RUTG 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snapGo for it10.0%−0.525% to convertField goalTheir call10.4%68% to makePunt8.3%−2.2average punt
- Q2 1:19AKR 4th & 10 at midfield, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it8.4%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.5%average punt
- Q3 4:00AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 30, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%average punt
- Q3 2:16AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 26, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q4 4:55RUTG 4th & 9 at AKR 47, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 7 of 7AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 0:47RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.9%97% to makeGo for two90.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:54RUTG Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:09RUTG Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.8%97% to makeGo for two94.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:45AKR Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.2%97% to makeGo for two8.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:56RUTG Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:14RUTG Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:25RUTG Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:24RUTG Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:11AKR Touchdown, down 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1INT6 plays · 41 yds · 2:4095% → 95%
AKRDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:415% → 6%
Q1 11:28
2ND & 9
OWN 11
-6
94.5%
Ben Finley sacked by Eric Rogers for a loss of 6 yards to the AKR 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0594% → 94%
Q1 8:32
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+3
93.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kyle Monangai for 3 yds to the AKR 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4MISSED FG9 plays · 28 yds · 3:417% → 8%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
93.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 4 yds to the RUTG 48Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+1
92.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Charles Kellom for 1 yd to the RUTG 47Similar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
92.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Charles Kellom for 27 yds to the RUTG 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-11
92.2%
Tahj Bullock sacked by Malcolm Ray for a loss of 11 yards to the RUTG 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5TD6 plays · 76 yds · 2:4293% → 94%
AKRDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 22 yds · 2:567% → 7%
RUTGDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2993% → 92%
AKRDrive 8FG10 plays · 37 yds · 4:028% → 10%
RUTGDrive 9TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0390% → 93%
Q2 3:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
90.1%
KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass to the right complete for 8 yards to LONG, Chris caught at the AKR0 and advanced to the AKR0, TOUCHDOWN RU, score nullified by penalty, clock 03:43 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY RU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on ZILINSKAS, Gus enforced 5 yards from the AKR8 to the AKR13 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
89.9%
KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass to the right incomplete intended for LONG, Chris thrown to the AKR0; QB hurried by CHEATOM, Kam, clock 03:35. PENALTY AKR Holding on WHITE, Catrell enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the AKR13 to the AKR6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 6 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:297% → 7%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
92.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11TD12 plays · 80 yds · 1:1093% → 95%
Q2 0:52
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
92.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Chris Long for 6 yds to the RUTG 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+31
92.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 31 yds to the AKR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
93.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Chris Long for 12 yds to the AKR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
93.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Chris Long for 11 yds to the AKR 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
93.1%
KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass to the right incomplete intended for LONG, Chris thrown to the AKR0, clock 00:16. PENALTY AKR Pass Interference on GOLDEN-NELSON, Devonte enforced 12 yards to the AKR2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
94.6%
(00:04) [NHSG] Kneel down by FINLEY, Ben at AKR28 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:155% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jake Newell for no gain to the AKR 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
95.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Bobby Golden for 17 yds to the AKR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
90.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 32 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14TD12 plays · 75 yds · 6:4392% → 97%
Q3 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+22
92.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 22 yds to the AKR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:553% → 3%
Q3 4:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
96.6%
Avery Book punt for 42 yds , Christian Dremel returns for no gain to the RUTG 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16TD2 plays · 62 yds · 0:4297% → 99%
AKRDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:531% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18TD7 plays · 74 yds · 3:3899% → 100%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.5%
RAYMOND, Antwan rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the RU41 (MOORE JR, Marcus;COOPER, Shammond), clock 01:45. PENALTY Before the snap, AKR Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the RU36 to the RU41. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+15
99.5%
Akron Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bryan McCoy) to the AKR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+23
99.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 23 yds to the AKR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher for 9 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19INT2 plays · -1 yds · 0:530% → 0%
RUTGDrive 20TD4 plays · 4 yds · 0:06100% → 100%
Q4 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
SHEPPARD, Ajani pass short to the right incomplete intended for BLACK, Ben thrown to the AKR2, clock 11:30. PENALTY AKR Pass Interference on JARMON, Iesa enforced 2 yards to the AKR2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
RAYMOND, Antwan rush up the middle for no gain to the AKR2 (FISH, Antavious), clock 11:30. PENALTY Before the snap, AKR Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the AKR2 to the AKR1. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21TD3 plays · 78 yds · 0:000% → 0%
RUTGDrive 22PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 5:06100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23END OF GAME11 plays · 40 yds · 4:330% → 0%
Q4 0:53
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Tahj Bullock pass complete to Conner Cravaack for 5 yds to the AKR 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:56
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q2 1:54
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 6 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q3 11:45
Ben Finley pass complete to Adrian Norton for 32 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
-4.1