2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadURI aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreURI score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:49 · Max Brosmer run for 1 yd to the URI 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 9:27: Dragan Kesich 53 yd FG GOOD — URI win probability +0.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:05: Darius Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +1.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:16: Marcus Major run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +3.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:57: Max Brosmer pass complete to Cristian Driver for 6 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:11: Max Brosmer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 29 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 5URI made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 13:03URI 4th & 3 at URI 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it5.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q1 9:27MINN 4th & 9 at URI 35, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snapGo for it94.1%32% to convertField goalTheir call94.1%−<0.145% to makePunt94.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:57URI 4th & 4 at URI 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.3%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q1 5:17MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 22, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snapGo for it92.9%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.1%average punt
- Q1 2:43URI 4th & 7 at URI 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q2 0:01MINN 4th & 28 at URI 37, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snapGo for it93.9%−0.97% to convertField goalTheir call94.7%−0.140% to makePunt94.8%average punt
- Q3 10:49MINN 4th & 1 at URI 31, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.1%71% to convertField goal95.0%−1.154% to makePunt94.5%−1.6average punt
- Q3 5:57URI 4th & 8 at URI 45, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q4 11:04MINN 4th & 4 at URI 29, up 31Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%48% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−<0.158% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 6:21URI 4th & 6 at URI 47, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q2 11:05MINN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.9%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:16MINN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:57MINN Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:11MINN Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:32MINN Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:56MINN Touchdown, up 47 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartURIDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:563% → 3%
MINNDrive 2FG7 plays · 44 yds · 3:2497% → 96%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
96.6%
Rhode Island Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Carson Primrose) to the MINN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
96.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for no gain to the MINN 44Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+20
96.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Cristian Driver for 20 yds to the URI 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:294% → 4%
Q1 9:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.1%
Devin Farrell pass complete to Greg Gaines III for 11 yds to the URI 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3496% → 95%
Q1 6:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
95.5%
(06:08) BROSMER, Max pass short up the middle incomplete intended for GEERS, Jameson broken up by PRICE, Braden at the UMN30, clock 06:06. PENALTY UMN Holding on ERSERY, Aireontae enforced 10 yards from the UMN27 to the UMN17 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+5
95.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 5 yds to the MINN 22Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+46
95.1%
Mark Crawford punt for 46 yds , Gabe Sloat returns for a loss of 1 yard to the URI 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:255% → 5%
Q1 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
95.3%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Malik Grant for a loss of 2 yards to the URI 29Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 17
OWN 24
-1
95.2%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Omari Walker for 14 yds to the URI 38 Rhode Island Penalty, Illegal Block (Marquis Buchanan) to the URI 16Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 20
OWN 21
+13
95.1%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Malik Grant for 13 yds to the URI 34Similar
Q1 2:43
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
94.9%
Devin Walter punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Daniel Jackson at the MINN 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD13 plays · 83 yds · 6:3295% → 95%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
94.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 5 yds to the MINN 22Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+12
94.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jordan Nubin for 12 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+11
93.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 11 yds to the MINN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
94.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 13 yds to the URI 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+14
94.0%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 14 yds to the URI 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
93.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Nick Kallerup for 5 yds to the URI 21Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+18
93.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 18 yds to the URI 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 7INT5 plays · 21 yds · 1:426% → 6%
MINNDrive 8TD17 plays · 85 yds · 7:5494% → 97%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
94.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 15 yds to the MINN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
94.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 9 yds to the URI 44Similar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+16
94.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 16 yds to the URI 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
94.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for 9 yds to the URI 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 9FUMBLE1 play · -6 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
95.9%
Devin Farrell sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the URI 19 Devin Farrell fumbled, recovered by MINN Jack Henderson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10MISSED FG6 plays · -18 yds · 1:0997% → 96%
Q2 0:36
3RD & 14
OPP 23
-14
97.0%
Max Brosmer sacked by A.J. Pena for a loss of 14 yards to the URI 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD12 plays · 73 yds · 6:5696% → 99%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
96.0%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 7 yds to the MINN 44Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+16
96.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 16 yds to the URI 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
96.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 6 yds to the URI 34Similar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
97.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 14 yds to the URI 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Cristian Driver for 6 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:582% → 2%
MINNDrive 13TD8 plays · 79 yds · 4:3999% → 100%
Q3 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+16
98.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 16 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
99.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for 9 yds to the URI 43Similar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
99.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Darius Taylor for 13 yds to the URI 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+29
99.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 29 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 14INT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q3 0:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+21
99.9%
Devin Farrell pass complete to Marquis Buchanan for 21 yds to the URI 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Devin Farrell pass complete to Shawn Harris Jr. for no gain to the URI 46Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-16
99.9%
Devin Farrell pass intercepted Koi Perich return for 16 yds to the URI 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15FG7 plays · 19 yds · 3:35100% → 100%
Q4 13:25
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+10
99.9%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Nathan Jones for 10 yds to the URI 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 16INT TD3 plays · -8 yds · 0:310% → 0%
URIDrive 17PUNT12 plays · 22 yds · 4:100% → 0%
Q4 9:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Marquis Buchanan for 10 yds to the URI 34Similar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Brady Roark for no gain to the URI 36Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Marquis Buchanan for 4 yds to the URI 40Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
(07:17) HELMS, Hunter pass short up the middle incomplete intended for BUCHANAN, Marquis broken up by KELLY, Rhyland at the URI45, clock 07:15. PENALTY UMN Pass Interference on KELLY, Rhyland enforced at the spot of the foul for 3 yards to the URI43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+9
99.9%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Marquis Buchanan for 9 yds to the MINN 48Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+28
100.0%
Devin Walter punt for 36 yds , Koi Perich returns for 28 yds to the MINN 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD9 plays · 55 yds · 4:11100% → 100%
URIDrive 19END OF GAME3 plays · 1 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:16
Marcus Major run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+3
TD · Q2 11:05
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q3 7:57
Max Brosmer pass complete to Cristian Driver for 6 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+1.3