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MSU

Michigan State 27 at Maryland 24

MD
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-39.7MD 5.9%Jonathan Kim 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 27 - HOME 24 · Q4 0:01
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Jonathan Kim 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 169Pregame prior+0.0Home team on offense−32.5Score differential−4.9Garbage-time factor−15.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Jonathan Kim 50 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:18: Jack Howes 45 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +6.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:54: Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 28 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +20.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:11: Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 77 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +39.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:01: Jonathan Kim 37 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +39.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 6MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:35MD 4th & 13 at MD 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 5:44MD 4th & 6 at MD 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:44MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:36MD 4th & 4 at MD 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 8:18MD 4th & 9 at MSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−8.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:22MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  7. Q4 8:57MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  8. Q4 4:26MD 4th & 1 at MSU 23, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%−1.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−5.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:20MD 4th & 1 at MD 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 10.9 ptsPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%−10.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:01MSU 4th & 7 at MD 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−17.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−31.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:30MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:17MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:47MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:07MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:54MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:11MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:3074% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.4%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 27Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
74.3%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
74.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 6 yds to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
74.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 8 yds to the MD 45Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
74.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
74.1%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MD 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
74.1%
Nolan Ray run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 8
50
0
74.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 8
50
+8
73.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 8 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
74.0%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 43Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+3
73.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Nolan Ray for 3 yds to the MSU 40Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+10
73.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 10 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
73.9%
(09:24) EDWARDS JR., Billy pass deep to the left incomplete intended for PRATHER, Kaden thrown to the MSU0, clock 09:07. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on BRANTLEY, Charles enforced 15 yards to the MSU15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
73.9%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the MSU 15Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
75.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 15 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:0725% → 29%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
74.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 7 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
74.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+15
75.1%
Maryland Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Perry Fisher) to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
74.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 4 yds to the MD 45Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+30
74.4%
Nate Carter run for 30 yds to the MD 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
73.9%
Nate Carter run for 6 yds to the MD 9Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
73.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
71.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:3972% → 71%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
72.1%
Kaden Prather run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 24Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
72.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 6 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
71.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 10 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
72.4%
(03:54) HEMBY, Roman rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the UMD43 (BRANTLEY, Charles), clock 03:32. PENALTY UMD Holding on HAUGHTON JR., Leon enforced 10 yards from the UMD40 to the UMD30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 20
OWN 30
0
71.7%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 20
OWN 30
0
71.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 20
OWN 30
+7
71.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 7 yds to the MD 37Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
70.9%
Bryce McFerson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4529% → 29%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
71.0%
Nate Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 20Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
70.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 9
OWN 20
-28
71.2%
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted Glendon Miller return for 28 yds to the MSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:4073% → 76%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
72.9%
Nolan Ray run for 10 yds to the MSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
76.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4025% → 33%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.0%
(00:47) CHILES, Aidan pass deep to the left complete for 23 yards to VELLING, Jack caught at the MSU48 and advanced to the MSU48, End of Play, clock 00:41. PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Formation on LEPO, Ashton enforced 5 yards from the MSU25 to the MSU20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
75.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 6 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+20
75.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 20 yds Jaron Glover fumbled, recovered by MSU Montorie Foster Jr. M. Foster Jr. return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
74.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 8 yds to the MD 46Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
73.7%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
73.9%
Aidan Chiles run for 3 yds to the MD 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
73.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for a loss of 3 yards to the MD 46Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+9
74.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 9 yds to the MD 37Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+16
73.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 16 yds to the MD 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
72.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-13
72.9%
Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the MD 19 Michigan State Penalty, Chop Block (-15 Yards) to the MD 34Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 23
OPP 34
+34
67.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 34 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:1870% → 68%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
69.7%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the MD 11Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+7
69.8%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the MD 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
69.9%
Colby McDonald run for 5 yds to the MD 23Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+3
70.0%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+7
69.2%
Colby McDonald run for 7 yds to the MD 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-9
69.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Khris Bogle for a loss of 9 yards to the MD 24Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 19
OWN 24
+7
69.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 7 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+6
68.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 6 yds to the MD 37Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
68.1%
Bryce McFerson punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4134% → 33%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
66.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
66.2%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 3 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
66.3%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
67.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0069% → 67%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
68.6%
Tai Felton run for 4 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
70.1%
Nolan Ray run for 5 yds to the MD 44Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-5
69.5%
Maryland Penalty, False Start (Dylan Wade) to the MD 39Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+2
68.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Roman Hemby for 2 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
67.1%
Bryce McFerson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10FG
18 plays · 56 yds · 2:2036% → 46%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
64.5%
Nate Carter run for no gain to the MSU 12Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+7
64.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 7 yds to the MSU 19Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+5
65.1%
(01:53) QB Keeper CHILES, Aidan rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the MSU24 (SCRUGGS, Lavain;HYPPOLITE II, Ruben), clock 01:47. PENALTY UMD Offsides on LEE, Braydon enforced 5 yards from the MSU19 to the MSU24 and results in a 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
64.0%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
64.2%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+10
65.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 10 yds to the MSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
62.9%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Taizse Johnson for 0 yards to the MSU 34Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+14
63.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 14 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
60.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 12 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
59.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 9 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+3
57.8%
Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MD 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-9
57.7%
Aidan Chiles sacked by Caleb Wheatland for a loss of 9 yards to the MD 37Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 19
OPP 37
+5
60.4%
(00:06) KIM, Jonathan field goal attempt from 55 yards NO GOOD (wide left) [kick was spotted at UMD45], clock 00:01. PENALTY UMD Offsides on HUSKEY, Jalen enforced 5 yards from the UMD37 to the UMD32 [FG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+50
53.9%
Jonathan Kim 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11INT
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:3841% → 46%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
59.5%
Nate Carter run for 13 yds to the MSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
58.9%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
59.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the MSU 29Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+13
59.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 13 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
56.4%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 23 yds to the MD 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
54.6%
Jaron Glover run for 14 yds to the MD 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
53.9%
(11:45) LYNCH-ADAMS, Kay'Ron rush to the right for a loss of 2 yards to the UMD23 (HYPPOLITE II, Ruben;JOHNSON, Lavon), clock 11:29. PENALTY MSU Holding on LEPO, Ashton enforced 10 yards from the UMD21 to the UMD31 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 20
OPP 31
0
54.3%
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted, touchback. Jalen Huskey return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:4458% → 66%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+35
58.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 35 yds to the MSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
62.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 17 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
63.6%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 29Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+2
63.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 2 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+5
61.3%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 5 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 4
OPP 22
-5
59.1%
Maryland Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the MSU 27Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
65.9%
Jack Howes 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 4:0638% → 37%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
62.1%
(08:18) CHILES, Aidan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MARSH, Nick thrown to the MSU50, clock 08:10. PENALTY MSU Holding on LEPO, Ashton enforced 10 yards from the MSU25 to the MSU15. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+6
62.3%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jaron Glover for 6 yds to the MSU 21Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
62.4%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 5 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
62.8%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 9 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
60.5%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 31Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+5
61.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 5 yds to the MSU 36Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+8
61.5%
Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
58.8%
Michigan State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Ryan Eckley) to the MSU 39Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
61.3%
Ryan Eckley punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
63.5%
(04:12) SMITH JR., Octavian pass deep to the right intercepted by MARTINEZ, Nikai at the UMD47 intended for FELTON, Tai. Martinez return for 0 yards to the UMD47, End of Play, clock 04:05. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on BRANTLEY, Charles enforced 15 yards to the UMD35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1164% → 87%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
64.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 6 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-2
66.8%
Nolan Ray run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 39Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
63.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 10 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
66.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
66.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 7 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
66.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 5 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
67.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Nolan Ray for 4 yds to the MSU 35Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
68.4%
Nolan Ray run for 2 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+5
66.7%
Nolan Ray run for 5 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
87.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 28 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15INT
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:2420% → 19%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
79.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 57 yds to the MD 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
76.4%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (Stanton Ramil) to the MD 23Similar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 15
OPP 23
-4
77.2%
Nate Carter run for a loss of 4 yards to the MD 27Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 19
OPP 27
-1
78.7%
Aidan Chiles run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 28Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 20
OPP 28
0
80.8%
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted Glendon Miller return for no gain to the MD 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16INT
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:3787% → 89%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for no gain to the MD 37Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
86.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Colby McDonald for 6 yds to the MD 43Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+20
87.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 20 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
88.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass intercepted Charles Brantley return for no gain to the MSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3517% → 15%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
82.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MSU 24Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+2
82.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
83.8%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
84.6%
Ryan Eckley punt blocked, PENALTY MSU Face mask enforced 15 yards after the change of possession from the end of the play at the MD 23 to the MD 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 4:2989% → 92%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
88.6%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+7
88.9%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the MD 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
89.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the MD 45Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 13
OWN 45
0
89.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+23
89.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 23 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
91.0%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Tai Felton for 4 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
91.5%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+3
91.6%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+41
92.2%
Jack Howes 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
1 play · 77 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
52.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 77 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5160% → 60%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
59.9%
Nolan Ray run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 33Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+11
58.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 11 yds to the MD 44Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
62.5%
Nolan Ray run for no gain to the MD 44Similar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
60.0%
Bryce McFerson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21FG
21 plays · 65 yds · 2:1149% → 94%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
51.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the MSU 16Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
51.2%
Aidan Chiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+15
52.9%
(01:54) CHILES, Aidan pass to the right incomplete intended for MARSH, Nick thrown to the MSU30, clock 01:50. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on HUSKEY, Jalen enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the MSU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
48.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Antonio Gates Jr. for 7 yds to the MSU 38Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+6
44.5%
Aidan Chiles run for 6 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
44.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 13 yds to the MD 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
41.7%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 11 yds to the MD 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
38.9%
Aidan Chiles run for 3 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+6
37.9%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 6 yds to the MD 23Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
38.1%
Aidan Chiles run for 1 yd to the MD 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
36.0%
Nate Carter run for 4 yds to the MD 18Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+2
35.3%
Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the MD 16Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-5
40.8%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (Montorie Foster Jr.) to the MD 21Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+2
42.0%
Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the MD 19Similar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+37
5.9%
Jonathan Kim 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
10.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Kaden Prather for 11 yds to the MD 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:11
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 77 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)
-39.7
FG · Q4 0:01
Jonathan Kim 37 yd FG GOOD
-39.7
TD · Q4 14:54
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Dylan Wade for 28 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+20.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com