2024 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadWIU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreWIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:26 · Jared Campbell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ke'Shawn Williams at the IU 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:41: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 71 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:03: Ty Son Lawton run for 19 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:40: Elijah Green run for 11 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — WIU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:27: Kurtis Rourke run for 1 yd for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:30: Antonio Chadha 31 yd FG GOOD — WIU win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: WIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2WIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 12:02WIU 4th & 9 at WIU 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 7:57WIU 4th & 1 at WIU 34, down 14Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:22WIU 4th & 3 at WIU 32, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it1.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q2 14:24WIU 4th & 21 at WIU 24, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q2 7:46WIU 4th & 12 at WIU 23, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 0:30WIU 4th & 10 at IU 14, down 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%84% to makePunt-0.0%−0.4average punt
- Q3 10:43WIU 4th & 19 at WIU 26, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:59WIU 4th & 16 at WIU 39, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:26WIU 4th & 3 at WIU 32, down 53Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:42IU 4th & 7 at WIU 7, up 60Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.128% to convertField goal99.9%91% to makePunt99.5%−0.5average punt
- Q4 6:13WIU 4th & 11 at WIU 34, down 74Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 1:13IU 4th & 5 at WIU 22, up 74Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goal99.9%72% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 12:53IU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:30IU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:41IU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:03IU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:40IU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:27IU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:58IU Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:02IU Touchdown, up 52 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:34IU Touchdown, up 59 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:29IU Touchdown, up 66 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:10IU Touchdown, up 73 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIUDrive 1TD5 plays · 68 yds · 1:5699% → 99%
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+17
99.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 17 yds to the IU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+8
99.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 8 yds to the WIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
99.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Andison Coby for 38 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:491% → 1%
Q1 12:02
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.2%
Jared Campbell punt for 45 yds , Myles Price returns for no gain to the IU 26 Western Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the IU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3TD5 plays · 53 yds · 2:2299% → 99%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+23
99.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 23 yds to the WIU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:331% → 1%
IUDrive 5TD1 play · 71 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
99.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 71 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:171% → 1%
Q1 6:22
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.2%
Jared Campbell punt for 42 yds , Myles Price returns for 2 yds to the IU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7TD8 plays · 72 yds · 4:0999% → 99%
Q1 4:56
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+15
99.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 15 yds to the IU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
99.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 11 yds to the WIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
99.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Solomon Vanhorse for 14 yds to the WIU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
99.2%
(03:12) ROURKE, Kurtis pass short up the middle complete for 7 yards to BOMBA, James caught at the WIU27 and advanced to the WIU23 (HUSTON, Kendall;HENRY, Tyler), clock 03:05. PENALTY IND Pass Interference on HORTON, Zach enforced 15 yards to the WIU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · -11 yds · 2:401% → 1%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
99.5%
(02:04) QB Keeper LAMB, Nathan rush to the right for no gain to the WIU35 (CARR JR., Lanell), out of bounds, clock 01:57. PENALTY WIU Holding on TRECCIA, Joey enforced 10 yards from the WIU35 to the WIU25 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 20
OWN 25
-3
99.5%
Nathan Lamb sacked by Mikail Kamara for a loss of 3 yards to the WIU 22Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 25
-5
99.5%
Western Illinois Penalty, Delay Of Game (Nathan Lamb) to the WIU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9TD9 plays · 67 yds · 4:31100% → 99%
WIUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:470% → 0%
IUDrive 11TD11 plays · 60 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
Q2 6:28
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
99.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 5 yds to the WIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
99.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 13 yds to the WIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+28
99.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 28 yds to the WIU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
(03:25) ELLISON, Justice rush up the middle for no gain to the WIU1 (RIVEN, Jalen;NERI, Diego), clock 03:18. PENALTY Before the snap, WIU Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the WIU1 to the WIU0 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 12FG16 plays · 69 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
99.8%
Nathan Lamb pass complete to Demari Davis for 6 yds to the WIU 23Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+16
99.8%
Nathan Lamb pass complete to Christian Anaya for 16 yds to the WIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.8%
Nathan Lamb pass complete to Christian Anaya for 4 yds to the WIU 49Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+7
99.8%
Nathan Lamb pass complete to Brandon Lanier for 7 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+30
99.8%
Nathan Lamb pass complete to Demari Davis for 30 yds to the IU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.7%
Nathan Lamb pass complete to Cameren Smith for 2 yds to the IU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 1 yds · 4:140% → 0%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.8%
Nathan Lamb pass complete to Demari Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the WIU 24Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
99.8%
Western Illinois Penalty, False Start (Cameren Smith) to the WIU 25Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
Nathan Lamb pass complete to Christian Anaya for 10 yds to the WIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.8%
(12:46) LAMB, Nathan pass to the left complete for 10 yards to DAVIS, Demari to the WIU45 (ASBURY II, Shawn), clock 12:41. PENALTY Before the snap, WIU Illegal Formation on MILLER, Dagen enforced 5 yards from the WIU35 to the WIU30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-11
99.8%
Nathan Lamb sacked by Mikail Kamara for a loss of 11 yards to the WIU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15TD4 plays · 69 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q3 9:32
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 8 yds to the WIU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 16PUNT11 plays · 14 yds · 3:590% → 0%
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Nathan Lamb pass complete to Cameren Smith for no gain to the WIU 25Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.9%
Nathan Lamb pass complete to Christian Anaya for 12 yds to the WIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-7
99.9%
Nathan Lamb sacked by Tyrique Tucker for a loss of 7 yards to the WIU 35Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+10
99.9%
(06:22) LAMB, Nathan pass to the right incomplete intended for DUNCAN, Tristin thrown to the WIU46, clock 06:17. PENALTY IND Pass Interference on SHARPE, Jamari enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the WIU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.9%
Nathan Lamb pass complete to Brandon Lanier for 3 yds to the WIU 48Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-5
99.9%
Western Illinois Penalty, False Start (Cameren Smith) to the WIU 43Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 12
OWN 43
-4
99.9%
Nathan Lamb sacked by DJ Warnell Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the WIU 39Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 16
OWN 39
+14
99.9%
Jared Campbell punt for 38 yds , Ke'Shawn Williams returns for 14 yds to the IU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17TD7 plays · 63 yds · 3:46100% → 100%
WIUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 14:26
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Jared Campbell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ke'Shawn Williams at the IU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19TD2 plays · 74 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
WIUDrive 20INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-17
100.0%
Nathan Lamb pass intercepted Ta'Derius Collins return for 17 yds to the WIU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21DOWNS4 plays · 5 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 12:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
99.9%
Alberto Mendoza pass complete to Brady Simmons for 6 yds to the WIU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 22INT TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-12
100.0%
Nathan Lamb pass intercepted Rolijah Hardy return for 12 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 23FUMBLE3 plays · -13 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q4 10:36
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-14
100.0%
Chris Irvin sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the WIU 10 Chris Irvin fumbled, recovered by IU Robby Harrison , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24TD3 plays · 10 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
WIUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:550% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 7:41
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 71 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 2:03
Ty Son Lawton run for 19 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q2 9:40
Elijah Green run for 11 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)
-0.1