Try the model
KU

Kansas 17 at Illinois 23

ILL
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jalon Daniels sacked by Xavier Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 42 Jalon Daniels fumbled, recovered by ILL Alec Bryant , return for 0 yards
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:32: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 3 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK) — KU win probability +8.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:36: Xavier Scott 30 Yd Interception Return (David Olano Kick) — ILL win probability +13.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 4:57: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 13 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK) — KU win probability +17.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:34: Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd for a TD (David Olano KICK) — ILL win probability +32.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:58: David Olano 43 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +6.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9KU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 6:09ILL 4th & 1 at KU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:35ILL 4th & 2 at KU 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%−0.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−2.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:39KU 4th & 6 at ILL 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:32KU 4th & 2 at ILL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−0.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:37ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:05ILL 4th & 14 at KU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:14ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:34ILL 4th & 16 at ILL 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−4.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:34ILL 4th & 16 at ILL 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−4.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:12KU 4th & 1 at ILL 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−7.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:36ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−5.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:28KU 4th & 3 at KU 42, up 4
    Close callPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:44KU 4th & 5 at KU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:58ILL 4th & 14 at KU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−7.9
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−20.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 3:32KU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:36ILL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:57KU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:34ILL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KUDrive 1INT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:4565% → 64%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.0%
Jalon Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.0%
Devin Neal run for 8 yds to the KU 33Similar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
35.2%
Jalon Daniels run for 5 yds to the KU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
35.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 2 yds to the KU 40Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
35.6%
Devin Neal run for 6 yds to the KU 46Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
35.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 3 yds to the KU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
35.9%
Jalon Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
36.0%
Devin Neal run for 2 yds to the ILL 49Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
36.2%
Jalon Daniels pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 7:2737% → 41%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
36.6%
Kaden Feagin run for 8 yds to the ILL 41Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+6
37.2%
Kaden Feagin run for 6 yds to the ILL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
37.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the KU 47Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+1
37.9%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the KU 46Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+7
37.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the KU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
38.4%
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the KU 34Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+1
38.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the KU 35Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+5
38.9%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the KU 30Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+1
38.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the KU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
40.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 16 yds to the KU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
40.3%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd to the KU 12Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+7
40.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the KU 5Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
40.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+23
41.0%
David Olano 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 5:4259% → 60%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
41.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 8 yds to the KU 33Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
40.5%
Jalon Daniels run for 4 yds to the KU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
40.9%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 3 yds to the KU 40Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+11
40.7%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 11 yds to the ILL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
40.5%
Jalon Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
41.0%
Jalon Daniels run for 2 yds to the ILL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
40.3%
(14:58) Shotgun Daniels,Jalon pass incomplete deep left to Grimm,Luke thrown to ILL05 PENALTY ILL Roughing The Passer (Briggs Jr.,Dennis) 15 yards from ILL30 to ILL15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
40.2%
Devin Neal run for 3 yds to the ILL 12Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-15
40.4%
(14:11) Shotgun Daniels,Jalon pass complete short right to Grimm,Luke caught at ILL00, for 12 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 14:06 PENALTY KAN Pass Interference (Casey,Jared) 15 yards from ILL12 to ILL27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 22
OPP 27
+9
41.3%
Jalon Daniels run for 9 yds to the ILL 18Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+7
42.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 7 yds to the ILL 11Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
40.3%
Tabor Allen 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:2042% → 44%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.0%
Aidan Laughery run for 5 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
42.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
43.2%
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the ILL 38Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
43.6%
Aidan Laughery run for 5 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-3
44.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for a loss of 3 yards Zakhari Franklin fumbled, recovered by KU Jereme RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3360% → 59%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
39.7%
Jalon Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
39.5%
Devin Neal run for 4 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+4
40.0%
Jalon Daniels run for 4 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+2
41.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 1 yd to the ILL 31 pass complete to for 2 yds to the ILL 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3044% → 44%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
44.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
44.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 5 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+2
44.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for 2 yds to the ILL 38Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+3
43.7%
Hugh Robertson punt for 46 yds , Trevor Wilson returns for 3 yds to the KU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:5659% → 70%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+26
41.5%
Devin Neal run for 26 yds to the KU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
39.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 4 yds to the KU 49Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+18
39.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 18 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
38.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 3 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+24
38.5%
Devin Neal run for 24 yds to the ILL 6 for a 1ST down Illinois Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
38.6%
Jalon Daniels run for 3 yds to the ILL 3Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 3 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:2033% → 37%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.2%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
33.7%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the ILL 30Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+42
32.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 42 yds to the KU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
37.1%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Franklin,Zakhari) 5 yards from KAN28 to KAN33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+1
35.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the KU 32Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 14
OPP 32
0
34.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 14
OPP 32
0
33.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+50
36.8%
David Olano 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9INT TD
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:1265% → 49%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
35.4%
Quentin Skinner run for 7 yds to the KU 29 Quentin Skinner fumbled, recovered by KU Quentin SkinnerSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+4
37.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 4 yds to the KU 33Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 13
OWN 33
-30
50.9%
Xavier Scott 30 Yd Interception Return (David Olano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
48.9%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 4 yds to the KU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4051% → 52%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.7%
Kaden Feagin run for 7 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
53.5%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the ILL 32Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
52.0%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the ILL 33Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
51.5%
Hugh Robertson punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KU 19 , Trevor Wilson returns for 4 yds to the KU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12TD
15 plays · 81 yds · 8:0949% → 68%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
51.4%
Jalon Daniels run for 4 yds to the KU 23Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+5
51.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 5 yds to the KU 28Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
52.0%
Devin Neal run for 3 yds to the KU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
51.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 21 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
49.1%
Jalon Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
49.5%
Devin Neal run for no gain to the ILL 48Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+11
51.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 11 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
49.8%
Devin Neal run for 3 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-10
48.3%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Jalon rush left for 26 yards gain to the ILL08 (Cox Jr.,Torrie; Scott,Miles) PENALTY KAN Holding (Cabeldue,Bryce) 10 yards from ILL34 to ILL44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+11
52.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Daniel Hishaw Jr. for 11 yds to the ILL 33Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+7
50.8%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 7 yds to the ILL 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
48.7%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 5 yds to the ILL 21Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+7
48.9%
Devin Neal run for 7 yds to the ILL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
49.2%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd to the ILL 13Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
31.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 13 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:1038% → 34%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
37.8%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd to the ILL 19Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+3
37.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 3 yds to the ILL 22Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-8
34.9%
Luke Altmyer sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 14Similar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+15
33.8%
Hugh Robertson punt for 52 yds , Trevor Wilson returns for 15 yds to the KU 49Similar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+15
33.8%
Hugh Robertson punt for 52 yds , Trevor Wilson returns for 15 yds to the KU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:2570% → 70%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
30.3%
Jalon Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
30.5%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 8 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
30.0%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 1 yd to the ILL 42Similar
Q3 1:12
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+1
32.5%
Jared Casey run for 1 yd to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
30.0%
Jalon Daniels pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1436% → 34%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+19
35.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 19 yds to the ILL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
36.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 21Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
36.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
34.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:36
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
33.7%
Hugh Robertson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0268% → 67%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
31.8%
Devin Neal run for 7 yds to the KU 42Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
30.0%
Jalon Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
30.4%
Jalon Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
32.8%
Damon Greaves punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:4537% → 74%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
36.7%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 3 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+37
36.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 37 yds to the KU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
42.1%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Marvin Grant for a loss of 7 yards to the KU 47Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+18
39.3%
Luke Altmyer run for 18 yds to the KU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
44.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
44.3%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the KU 29Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+28
41.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 28 yds to the KU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd for a TD (David Olano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3636% → 32%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
64.0%
Jalon Daniels run for 2 yds to the KU 17Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+7
65.1%
Devin Neal run for 7 yds to the KU 24Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
66.3%
Jalon Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+8
67.7%
Damon Greaves punt for 51 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 8 yds to the ILL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19FG
21 plays · 42 yds · 6:3870% → 95%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
70.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
71.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+9
69.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 9 yds to the ILL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
74.6%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 2 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
73.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+12
70.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 12 yds to the KU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
78.0%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 4 yds to the KU 41Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+6
81.7%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 6 yds to the KU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
83.7%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 1 yd to the KU 36Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+5
86.6%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 5 yds to the KU 31Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+10
87.0%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for 10 yds to the KU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
90.2%
Ca'Lil Valentine run for no gain to the KU 21Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+2
90.9%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the KU 19Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+6
91.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 6 yds to the KU 25Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+43
95.3%
David Olano 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20FUMBLE
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:4710% → 12%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 7 yds to the KU 32Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
89.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 10 yds to the KU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.8%
Jalon Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
90.2%
Jalon Daniels run for 2 yds to the KU 44Similar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+10
90.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 10 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
87.7%
Jalon Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-4
88.3%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Xavier Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 42 Jalon Daniels fumbled, recovered by ILL Alec Bryant , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:34
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd for a TD (David Olano KICK)
+32.2
TD · Q3 4:57
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 13 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK)
-17.4
TD · Q2 0:36
Xavier Scott 30 Yd Interception Return (David Olano Kick)
+13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com