2024 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2024 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreWMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:21 · Cade Yacamelli run for 4 yds to the WIS 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:02: Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +7.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:15: Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +18.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 12:05: Tawee Walker run for 4 yds to the WMU 16 — WIS win probability +10.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:35: Tawee Walker run for 6 yds for a TD (Tyler Van Dyke pass to Trech Kekahuna for Two-Point Conversion) — WIS win probability +26.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:17: Tyler Van Dyke run for 6 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +4.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 13:37WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q1 10:18WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt92.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:57WIS 4th & 9 at WMU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snapGo for it91.3%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call91.3%79% to makePunt90.9%−0.4average punt
- Q1 3:19WMU 4th & 6 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 10.0% before the snapGo for it10.1%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 3:02WMU 4th & 1 at WIS 1, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.8%59% to convertField goal10.4%−1.394% to makePunt7.3%−4.5average punt
- Q2 0:00WIS 4th & 10 at WMU 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snapGo for it81.3%−0.727% to convertField goalTheir call82.0%81% to makePunt77.9%−4.0average punt
- Q3 7:56WIS 4th & 6 at WMU 6, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snapGo for it81.6%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call81.8%91% to makePunt75.9%−5.8average punt
- Q3 4:13WMU 4th & 8 at WIS 31, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snapGo for it17.5%−0.334% to convertField goalTheir call17.8%54% to makePunt16.3%−1.5average punt
- Q3 0:12WMU 4th & 6 at WIS 30, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.3%40% to convertField goal20.3%−<0.156% to makePunt18.1%−2.2average punt
- Q4 12:27WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 30, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snapGo for it56.3%−3.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.5%average punt
- Q4 7:50WMU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.5%−4.7average punt
- Q4 1:54WMU 4th & 14 at WIS 42, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.5%19% to convertField goal2.5%−<0.130% to makePunt2.2%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 3WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 11:48WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.8%97% to makeGo for two89.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:02WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.6%97% to makeGo for two15.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:15WMU Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.9%97% to makeGo for two32.5%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 10:35WIS Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick79.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call79.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:17WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%−0.397% to makeGo for two96.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWMUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:177% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2MISSED FG16 plays · 63 yds · 6:3393% → 91%
Q1 12:59
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+8
92.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Tawee Walker for 8 yds to the WIS 28Similar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
92.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Tawee Walker for 3 yds to the WIS 36Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+3
92.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 3 yds to the WIS 42Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+10
92.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Bryson Green for 10 yds to the WMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+14
91.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Tucker Ashcraft for 14 yds to the WMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 3:329% → 10%
Q1 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
89.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Chris Toudle for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4TD17 plays · 93 yds · 6:2990% → 91%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
89.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Pauling for 10 yds to the WIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
89.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 9 yds to the WIS 37Similar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
89.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Pauling for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 9
50
+10
89.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Bryson Green for 10 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD18 plays · 78 yds · 8:4010% → 20%
Q2 10:58
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+11
89.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 11 yds to the WMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+24
89.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jalen Buckley for 24 yds to the WIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+8
88.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 8 yds to the WIS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6FG16 plays · 68 yds · 2:5284% → 84%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
83.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Bryson Green for 8 yds to the WIS 24Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+13
82.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Pauling for 13 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
82.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Bryson Green for 11 yds to the WMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+13
82.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 13 yds to the WMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7FG15 plays · 59 yds · 6:4785% → 86%
Q3 13:02
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+1
85.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jackson Acker for 1 yd to the WMU 46Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+17
84.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Pauling for 17 yds to the WMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+14
83.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 14 yds to the WMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+8
84.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Tucker Ashcraft for 8 yds to the WMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8MISSED FG9 plays · 44 yds · 3:4316% → 18%
WISDrive 9FUMBLE5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5385% → 84%
Q3 3:36
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+7
85.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Trech Kekahuna for 7 yds to the WIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-9
86.9%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Isaiah Green for a loss of 9 yards to the WIS 34Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 19
OWN 34
0
84.3%
Tyler Van Dyke run for no gain to the WIS 34 fumbled, recovered by WMU Tyson Lee T. Lee return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10TD7 plays · 34 yds · 2:4523% → 44%
Q3 0:46
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+4
78.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 4 yds to the WIS 30Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.9%
(14:17) WOLFF, Hayden pass short to the right incomplete intended for BOSMA, Blake thrown to the WIS0, clock 14:19. PENALTY Before the snap, WIS Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the WIS2 to the WIS1. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3464% → 58%
WISDrive 12TD5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3068% → 91%
Q4 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
91.1%
Tawee Walker run for 6 yds for a TD (Tyler Van Dyke pass to Trech Kekahuna for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13DOWNS7 plays · 25 yds · 2:4514% → 16%
WISDrive 14TD9 plays · 50 yds · 4:3191% → 99%
WMUDrive 15INT7 plays · 33 yds · 1:174% → 4%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
95.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 22 yds to the WMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
95.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 15 yds to the WIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-10
94.9%
(02:26) WOLFF, Hayden pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MORTIMER, Bugs thrown to the WIS12, clock 02:19. PENALTY WMI Holding on KUSHI, Tedi enforced 10 yards from the WIS38 to the WIS48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 20
OPP 48
-6
95.6%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Elijah Hills for a loss of 6 yards to the WMU 46Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 26
OWN 46
+12
96.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 12 yds to the WIS 42Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
95.9%
Hayden Wolff pass intercepted Xavier Lucas return for no gain to the WIS 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16END OF GAME3 plays · 23 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:35
Tawee Walker run for 6 yds for a TD (Tyler Van Dyke pass to Trech Kekahuna for Two-Point Conversion)
+26.4
TD · Q4 14:15
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
-18.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:05
Tawee Walker run for 4 yds to the WMU 16
+10.3