2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Husky Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:56 · Richie Munoz run for 7 yds to the WASH 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:15: Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD Weber State Penalty, ST Illegal Substitution (Jalon Rock) declined (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +1.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:53: Decker DeGraaf 33 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Grady Gross Kick) — WASH win probability +2.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:53: Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:50: Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:19: Kyle Thompson 28 yd FG GOOD — WEB win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: WEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WEB made the numbers' call on 15 of 15
- Q1 10:31WEB 4th & 9 at WASH 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.9%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call4.9%54% to makePunt4.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:11WASH 4th & 5 at WEB 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.6%42% to convertField goal94.5%−0.136% to makePunt94.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:37WEB 4th & 11 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.9%average punt
- Q1 2:20WASH 4th & 14 at WASH 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.6%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.8%average punt
- Q1 0:00WEB 4th & 11 at WEB 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.6%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q2 8:55WEB 4th & 12 at WEB 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it7.0%−0.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q2 6:25WASH 4th & 10 at WEB 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snapGo for it91.7%−<0.130% to convertField goal91.5%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call91.8%average punt
- Q2 4:22WEB 4th & 12 at WEB 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.5%−0.522% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q2 1:16WEB 4th & 11 at WEB 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q3 7:37WEB 4th & 9 at WEB 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 7:37WEB 4th & 9 at WEB 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 1:56WEB 4th & 10 at WASH 41, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%30% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.132% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 0:19WEB 4th & 8 at WASH 11, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%87% to makePunt-0.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 8:56WEB 4th & 7 at WASH 37, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%37% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.140% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 7:23WEB 4th & 1 at WASH 21, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goal0.0%−0.174% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 6:01WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 27, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 3:43WEB 4th & 1 at WEB 42, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:11WEB 4th & 9 at WASH 38, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%32% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.138% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:11WEB 4th & 9 at WASH 38, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%32% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.138% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q2 12:15WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:53WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:53WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:50WASH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:52WASH Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWEBDrive 1MISSED FG12 plays · 39 yds · 3:473% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2DOWNS6 plays · 30 yds · 2:1296% → 96%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
96.2%
(09:48) Coleman,Jonah rush right for 44 yards gain to the WEB ST00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:39 PENALTY WASH Holding (Moore,Quentin) 10 yards from WEB ST44 to WASH46. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 1:264% → 5%
WASHDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 4:1195% → 94%
Q1 2:20
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
94.1%
Jack McCallister punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WEB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 2:116% → 6%
Q1 0:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
93.7%
Oscar Doyle punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:4594% → 95%
Q2 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD Weber State Penalty, ST Illegal Substitution (Jalon Rock) declined (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 3:176% → 6%
Q2 10:05
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-10
93.8%
(10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Munoz,Richie pass complete short left to Record,Jayleen caught at WEB ST44, for 9 yards to the WEB ST44 (McCutcheon,Dyson) PENALTY WEB ST Holding (Taukeiaho,Lavaka) 10 yards from WEB ST35 to WEB ST25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+3
93.7%
Oscar Doyle punt for 37 yds , Denzel Boston returns for 3 yds to the WASH 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 2:2693% → 93%
Q2 6:25
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
92.7%
Jack McCallister punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaden Thrower at the WEB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 1:567% → 7%
WASHDrive 10TD5 plays · 72 yds · 1:2293% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 11PUNT12 plays · 27 yds · 1:276% → 5%
WASHDrive 12END OF HALF6 plays · 16 yds · 1:1097% → 96%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
96.6%
Will Rogers sacked by Angel King for a loss of 10 yards to the WASH 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13TD13 plays · 90 yds · 5:5595% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:002% → 2%
WASHDrive 15TD7 plays · 65 yds · 3:4398% → 100%
Q3 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-10
98.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Kemari Munier-Bailey for a loss of 10 yards to the WASH 29Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+15
98.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jonah Coleman for a 1ST down Weber State Penalty, ST Horse Collar Tackle (Kemari Munier-Bailey) to the WASH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 16FG15 plays · 56 yds · 3:140% → 2%
Q3 2:17
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+8
99.8%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Munoz,Richie pass incomplete short left to Sharp,Jacob thrown to WASH39, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WASH Pass Interference (Prysock,Ephesians) 8 yards from WASH49 to WASH41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17TD9 plays · 74 yds · 3:0899% → 100%
Q4 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+20
99.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
99.6%
(12:14) PENALTY WASH False Start (Tafai,Kahlee) 5 yards from WEB ST01 to WEB ST06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Denzel Boston 6 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 18DOWNS11 plays · 54 yds · 4:220% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q4 6:01
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Jack McCallister punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaden Thrower at the WEB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 20DOWNS13 plays · 29 yds · 4:430% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21END OF GAME3 plays · 10 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:53
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+3
TD · Q2 2:53
Decker DeGraaf 33 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Grady Gross Kick)
+2.6
TD · Q3 3:50
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
+1.6