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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadHOW aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreHOW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:51 · Jaydon Green punt for 36 yds, downed at the RUTG 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:51: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Dymere Miller for 2 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:40: Eden James run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan West KICK) — HOW win probability +2.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: HOW has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:04: Jai Patel 36 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +0.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:06: Kyle Monangai run for 7 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +3.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:33: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Samuel Brown V for 34 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 5HOW made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 13:01RUTG 4th & 6 at HOW 47, tiedClose callPunted · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.3%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:27HOW 4th & 7 at HOW 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q2 14:56RUTG 4th & 1 at HOW 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.0%71% to convertField goal96.8%−0.174% to makePunt96.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 12:20HOW 4th & 7 at HOW 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.4%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q2 10:44RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snapGo for it96.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.2%average punt
- Q2 8:51HOW 4th & 6 at HOW 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q3 11:51HOW 4th & 2 at RUTG 39, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.7%57% to convertField goal5.0%−0.736% to makePunt5.0%−0.7average punt
- Q3 7:07HOW 4th & 9 at HOW 19, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q3 5:24RUTG 4th & 1 at HOW 49, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt97.1%−0.6average punt
- Q4 14:53HOW 4th & 3 at HOW 49, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:32HOW 4th & 1 at RUTG 13, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%71% to convertField goal0.6%−0.185% to makePunt0.2%−0.6average punt
- Q4 3:08HOW 4th & 10 at HOW 15, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:13RUTG 4th & 1 at HOW 13, up 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%71% to convertField goal99.9%−0.185% to makePunt99.5%−0.5average punt
- Q4 0:15HOW 4th & 9 at HOW 31, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 5HOW made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:53RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:51RUTG Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:40HOW Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.5%97% to makeGo for two5.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:06RUTG Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:33RUTG Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:16RUTG Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 1:4898% → 98%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
98.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 12 yds to the RUTG 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 2INT TD10 plays · 37 yds · 3:432% → 2%
Q1 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
98.2%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass complete to Nathanial Clark for 5 yds to the HOW 15Similar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
97.9%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for 4 yds to the HOW 48Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-1
97.8%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for a loss of 1 yard to the HOW 47Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-52
97.9%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass intercepted Eric Rogers return for 52 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 2:152% → 2%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
97.9%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass complete to Eden James for 6 yds to the HOW 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4DOWNS13 plays · 62 yds · 6:2198% → 97%
HOWDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:363% → 4%
Q2 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.4%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass complete to Isaih Williams for 3 yds to the HOW 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3697% → 96%
HOWDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:484% → 4%
Q2 9:33
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+4
96.2%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass complete to Eden James for 4 yds to the HOW 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8TD7 plays · 55 yds · 3:5596% → 97%
HOWDrive 9TD14 plays · 76 yds · 4:053% → 6%
Q2 3:28
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+26
96.6%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass complete to Isaih Williams for 26 yds to the HOW 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+15
96.3%
(02:32) SCROGGINS, Ja'Shawn pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Isiah thrown to the RU15, clock 02:30. PENALTY RU Roughing the Passer on LEWIS, Aaron enforced 15 yards from the HU49 to the RU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10FG6 plays · 61 yds · 0:3096% → 96%
HOWDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.7%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SCROGGINS, Ja'Shawn at HU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 12DOWNS6 plays · 34 yds · 3:095% → 6%
RUTGDrive 13TD8 plays · 59 yds · 3:4195% → 98%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
95.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher for 6 yds to the RUTG 47Similar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
94.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher for 12 yds to the HOW 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kyle Monangai for no gain to the HOW 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:403% → 3%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+6
97.0%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for 6 yds to the HOW 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15TD11 plays · 58 yds · 4:3498% → 99%
HOWDrive 16DOWNS12 plays · 62 yds · 4:351% → 1%
Q3 1:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
99.1%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass complete to Kasey Hawthorne for 9 yds to the HOW 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+18
99.2%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass complete to Jarett Hunter for 18 yds to the RUTG 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
99.1%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins run for 11 yds to the RUTG 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17TD14 plays · 87 yds · 8:1299% → 100%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
99.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 8 yds to the HOW 46Similar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
99.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Victor Konopka for 12 yds to the HOW 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher for 3 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 3:08
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+19
100.0%
Jaydon Green punt for 40 yds , Christian Dremel returns for 19 yds to the HOW 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19DOWNS7 plays · 22 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 20DOWNS5 plays · 17 yds · 0:390% → 0%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
100.0%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for 16 yds to the HOW 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-9
100.0%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins sacked by Jordan Walker for a loss of 9 yards to the HOW 21Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 19
OWN 21
+10
100.0%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass complete to Isaih Williams for 10 yds to the HOW 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:06
Kyle Monangai run for 7 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q2 0:40
Eden James run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan West KICK)
-2.1
TD · Q3 2:33
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Samuel Brown V for 34 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+1.3