2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:44 · Garrison Smith 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 8:44: Garrison Smith 48 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:44: Jeremiah Smith 16 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick) — AKR win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:53: Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:35: Lathan Ransom 27 Yd Fumble Return (Jayden Fielding Kick) — OSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- FG · Q3 3:57: Garrison Smith 49 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +0.7 pts (now 1%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AKR made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 14:02OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q1 8:44AKR 4th & 18 at OSU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.113% to convertField goalTheir call0.8%54% to makePunt0.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:08AKR 4th & 15 at AKR 34, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q2 12:59OSU 4th & 5 at AKR 25, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.3%41% to convertField goal98.3%−<0.166% to makePunt97.9%−0.4average punt
- Q2 11:23OSU 4th & 10 at AKR 22, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call98.0%72% to makePunt97.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 9:00AKR 4th & 13 at AKR 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 1:56AKR 4th & 1 at OSU 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%70% to convertField goal1.9%−0.232% to makePunt1.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:04AKR 4th & 5 at OSU 34, down 14Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%−<0.142% to convertField goal2.1%47% to makePunt2.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:30OSU 4th & 17 at OSU 28, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%average punt
- Q3 13:20AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 34, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 8:45AKR 4th & 12 at AKR 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q3 3:57AKR 4th & 1 at OSU 31, down 28Close callKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%71% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%−0.254% to makePunt-0.1%−0.3average punt
- Q4 12:09AKR 4th & 18 at AKR 17, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:13AKR 4th & 6 at AKR 40, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 7:13AKR 4th & 6 at AKR 40, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 3:10OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 36, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 0:21AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 33, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 2:44OSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:30OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:53OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:35OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:01OSU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:16OSU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:25OSU Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
Q1 14:53
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-5
99.6%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Tshabola,Tegra) 5 yards from OSU41 to OSU36. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2FG10 plays · 47 yds · 5:180% → 1%
OSUDrive 3TD16 plays · 75 yds · 6:0099% → 99%
Q1 2:44
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+16
99.1%
Jeremiah Smith 16 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 2:361% → 1%
Q1 2:44
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-8
99.0%
Ben Finley sacked by C.J. Hicks for a loss of 8 yards to the AKR 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5DOWNS7 plays · 34 yds · 2:0199% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6INT2 plays · -2 yds · 0:562% → 2%
OSUDrive 7FG5 plays · 11 yds · 0:4099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 2:231% → 2%
Q2 9:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+6
98.4%
Avery Book punt for 60 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 6 yds to the OSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD12 plays · 76 yds · 4:3098% → 99%
Q2 7:39
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-5
98.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Howard,Will pass complete short left to Egbuka,Emeka caught at AKRON40, for 14 yards to the AKRON26 (Nunnally,CJ) PENALTY OSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from AKRON40 to AKRON45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.7%
Jeremiah Smith 9 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10DOWNS14 plays · 45 yds · 3:262% → 2%
OSUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:3499% → 99%
AKRDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13PUNT15 plays · 19 yds · 6:152% → 2%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
98.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,Ben pass complete short right to Newell,Jake caught at AKRON34, for 5 yards to the AKRON34 (Burke,Denzel), out of bounds PENALTY OSU Offside (Tuimoloau,JT) 5 yards from AKRON29 to AKRON34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 12
OWN 44
+36
97.9%
Avery Book punt for 52 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for 36 yds to the OSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14TD3 plays · 60 yds · 0:5298% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15FUMBLE RETURN TD4 plays · 2 yds · 0:181% → 0%
AKRDrive 16FG10 plays · 44 yds · 3:380% → 1%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.9%
PENALTY AKRON False Start (Burrell,Jerrod) 5 yards from OSU40 to OSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
Q3 3:57
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+15
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Howard,Will pass incomplete deep middle to Egbuka,Emeka thrown to AKRON02 PENALTY AKRON Pass Interference (Hunter,Joey) 15 yards from AKRON28 to AKRON13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 2:510% → 0%
OSUDrive 19TD4 plays · 47 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
100.0%
Carnell Tate 34 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 3:030% → 0%
OSUDrive 21PUNT11 plays · 31 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
AKRDrive 22INT TD3 plays · 9 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q4 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
100.0%
PENALTY OSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from AKRON03 to AKRON08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q4 0:21
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Avery Book punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:53
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q3 7:35
Lathan Ransom 27 Yd Fumble Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)
+0.7
FG · Q3 3:57
Garrison Smith 49 yd FG GOOD
-0.7