2024 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2024 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreFAU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:12 · Ryan Eckley punt for 58 yds , Omari Hayes returns for no gain to the FAU 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTimeout advantage
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:07: Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 63 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:07: Cam Fancher pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 10 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — FAU win probability +14.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 6:53: Timeout Michigan State, clock 06:53 — MSU win probability +10.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:27: Michigan State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jordan Turner) to the MSU 29 — MSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:23: Kneel down by MSU at FAU43 (team loss of 2). — MSU win probability +14.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8FAU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 13:00FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snapGo for it21.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.1%average punt
- Q1 8:24MSU 4th & 10 at FAU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snapGo for it77.5%−<0.130% to convertField goal77.5%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call77.5%average punt
- Q1 7:43MSU 4th & 1 at FAU 45, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call78.1%70% to convertField goal77.7%−0.425% to makePunt77.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 12:55MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 31, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snapGo for it74.5%−0.533% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.0%average punt
- Q2 9:17FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 32, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snapGo for it19.2%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.4%average punt
- Q2 4:43FAU 4th & 9 at MSU 25, down 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snapGo for it13.8%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call14.1%66% to makePunt11.7%−2.3average punt
- Q2 2:21MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 44, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snapGo for it85.2%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.5%average punt
- Q2 0:52FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 44, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snapGo for it13.9%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.1%average punt
- Q3 11:18FAU 4th & 20 at MSU 26, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snapGo for it10.6%−1.49% to convertField goalTheir call12.0%64% to makePunt9.0%−3.0average punt
- Q3 9:12MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 34, up 13Close callPunted · 88.3% before the snapGo for it89.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.8%−0.2average punt
- Q3 8:26FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 9, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snapGo for it10.3%−0.924% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q3 0:07FAU 4th & 1 at MSU 10, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.3%71% to convertField goal8.8%−1.588% to makePunt3.9%−6.4average punt
- Q4 10:42MSU 4th & 1 at FAU 9, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.6%71% to convertField goal82.4%−3.289% to makePunt74.0%−11.6average punt
- Q4 6:53FAU 4th & 2 at MSU 37, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.2%57% to convertField goal17.9%−4.340% to makePunt15.3%−6.9average punt
- Q4 5:52MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 43, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snapGo for it87.1%−2.034% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.0%average punt
- Q4 3:27FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 41, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.9%−7.0average punt
- Q4 3:07MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 31, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snapGo for it89.1%−1.733% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.8%average punt
- Q4 3:07FAU 4th & 8 at FAU 24, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.5%32% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.1%−2.4average punt
- Q4 1:23FAU 4th & 14 at FAU 41, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.6%18% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.7%−1.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 11:15MSU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.9%97% to makeGo for two80.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:07MSU Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.8%97% to makeGo for two84.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:07FAU Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.8%97% to makeGo for two15.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMSUDrive 1INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Aidan Chiles pass intercepted Kahzir Brown return for no gain to the FAU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5318% → 19%
Q1 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-1
81.7%
Cam Fancher sacked by Khris Bogle for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 39 yds · 4:3681% → 80%
Q1 13:00
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+15
81.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Alante Brown for 15 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+15
81.2%
CHILES, Aidan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GLOVER, Jaron thrown to the FAU30. PENALTY FAU Pass Interference on HILL, Daedae enforced 15 yards to the MSU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-4
81.3%
Aidan Chiles sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the FAU 41 Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by MSU Aidan Chiles , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4SF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3520% → 20%
MSUDrive 5FUMBLE12 plays · 43 yds · 6:0381% → 79%
Q1 7:43
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-5
80.3%
CHILES, Aidan pass short to the left complete for 13 yards to GLOVER, Jaron caught at the FAU49 and advanced to the FAU38 (WILLIAMS, Jayden;PHILORD, Wendol). PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Shift on GLOVER, Jaron enforced 5 yards from the MSU49 to the MSU44. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+11
80.0%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 11 yds to the FAU 45Similar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
80.6%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Michael Masunas for 7 yds to the FAU 37Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+22
80.5%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Michael Masunas for 22 yds to the FAU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+2
79.2%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 2 yds fumbled, recovered by FAU Jayden Williams J. Williams return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6INT9 plays · 65 yds · 2:5022% → 24%
Q1 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+15
78.5%
Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Hall) to the FAU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
78.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Zuberi Mobley for 3 yds to the FAU 37Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
76.1%
Zuberi Mobley run for no gain to the MSU 24 Zuberi Mobley fumbled, recovered by FAUSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
76.9%
Michigan State Penalty, Targeting on SPENCER, Malik enforced (Malik Spencer) to the MSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-15
76.3%
Cam Fancher pass intercepted Angelo Grose return for 15 yds to the MSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5579% → 78%
Q2 12:55
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
77.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 48 yds , Omari Hayes returns for no gain to the FAU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8INT2 plays · 9 yds · 0:5222% → 23%
MSUDrive 9TD3 plays · 18 yds · 0:4880% → 87%
FAUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5817% → 16%
MSUDrive 11TD1 play · 63 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12FG8 plays · 52 yds · 4:2013% → 14%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+35
86.9%
Cam Fancher run for 20 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on ROBERTS, Ben enforced (15 Yards) to the MSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
85.9%
Cam Fancher run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 27 CJ Campbell Jr. fumbled, recovered by FAU Cam Fancher C. Fancher return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+2
87.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to CJ Campbell Jr. for 2 yds to the MSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:2289% → 89%
FAUDrive 14PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 1:2914% → 12%
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
87.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Omari Hayes for 12 yds to the FAU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+5
87.1%
FANCHER, Cam pass deep to the left incomplete intended for YOUNG, Joseph broken up by WOODS, Ed at the MSU27. PENALTY MSU Offsides on HALL, Jordan enforced 5 yards from the FAU43 to the FAU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 4 yds · 0:5291% → 89%
FAUDrive 16MISSED FG10 plays · 49 yds · 3:4214% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
86.5%
Zuberi Mobley run for 1 yd to the FAU 26 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Dillon Tatum) to the FAU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
86.0%
FANCHER, Cam pass deep to the left incomplete intended for COOMBS, Caleb thrown to the MSU30. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on MAJEED, Khalil enforced 15 yards to the MSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+11
85.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 11 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-1
83.9%
Cam Fancher sacked by Ed Woods for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 17Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 11
OPP 17
-9
85.0%
Cam Fancher sacked by Ken Talley and Khris Bogle for a loss of 9 yards to the MSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0688% → 88%
FAUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4612% → 11%
Q3 8:26
4TH & 11
OWN 9
0
89.0%
Logan Lupo punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19INT9 plays · 48 yds · 5:2789% → 91%
FAUDrive 20TD7 plays · 40 yds · 2:5214% → 28%
MSUDrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 64 yds · 4:1879% → 82%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
79.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 16 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
80.9%
CHILES, Aidan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GLOVER, Jaron thrown to the FAU35. PENALTY FAU Offsides on DAVIS, Devonta declined FAU Pass Interference on BROWN, Kahzir enforced 15 yards to the FAU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
81.6%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 10 yds to the FAU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
82.1%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 14 yds to the FAU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+5
81.1%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 5 yds to the FAU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22DOWNS10 plays · 48 yds · 3:4925% → 26%
Q4 10:42
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+28
76.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Omari Hayes for 28 yds to the FAU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
69.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to George Johnson III for 5 yds to the MSU 40Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 2
OPP 37
-4
73.6%
Cam Fancher sacked by Anthony Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0184% → 83%
FAUDrive 24DOWNS7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2523% → 22%
MSUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2090% → 89%
FAUDrive 26DOWNS10 plays · 19 yds · 1:4421% → 19%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
78.9%
Cam Fancher sacked by Alex VanSumeren for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 21Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+21
81.2%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Omari Hayes for 21 yds to the FAU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-8
74.9%
Cam Fancher sacked by Jordan Turner for a loss of 8 yards to the FAU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:07
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 10 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
-14.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:23
Kneel down by MSU at FAU43 (team loss of 2).
+14.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:27
Michigan State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jordan Turner) to the MSU 29
+11.6