Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 10 at Michigan 30

MICH
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Michigan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by WARREN, Davis at UOM15 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:35: Dylan Lynch 41 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +2.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 12:42: Dominic Zvada 55 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +4.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:06: Raylen Sharpe 16 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick) — FRES win probability +14.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:43: Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 18 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +7.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:57: Mikey Keene pass intercepted Will Johnson return for 86 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +5.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 8:19FRES 4th & 17 at FRES 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:07MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:40FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:10FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:09MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 22, up 7
    Close callPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:42FRES 4th & 10 at MICH 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:58MICH 4th & 20 at MICH 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:35FRES 4th & 8 at MICH 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:31MICH 4th & 12 at FRES 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:21MICH 4th & 11 at FRES 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:20FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:55MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:10FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:42MICH 4th & 7 at FRES 37, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.5%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:19FRES 4th & 16 at FRES 46, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 11:03MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 10:06FRES Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:43MICH Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:57MICH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:299% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the FRES 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
90.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 3 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
90.4%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Zeke Berry return for 5 yds to the FRES 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:2891% → 90%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
90.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+13
90.5%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 13 yds to the FRES 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
90.5%
Semaj Morgan run for 9 yds to the FRES 7Similar
Q1 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
90.5%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the FRES 3Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.4%
Alex Orji pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 3 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4410% → 10%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
90.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 4 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+19
90.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
50
0
90.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 10
50
+1
90.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the MICH 49Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-8
90.1%
Mikey Keene sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 43Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 17
OWN 43
+10
90.0%
Clay Lawrence punt for 40 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 10 yds to the MICH 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 3:1290% → 89%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
89.9%
Kalel Mullings run for 8 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+5
90.0%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the MICH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
90.1%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for no gain to the MICH 40Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
90.0%
Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the MICH 40Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+3
89.9%
Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 3 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
89.3%
Tommy Doman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2711% → 11%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
89.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 7 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
89.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-3
89.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 24Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+22
89.4%
Clay Lawrence punt for 41 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 22 yds to the FRES 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-33
89.6%
Davis Warren pass intercepted Cam Lockridge return for 33 yds to the FRES 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:1311% → 11%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
88.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
88.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 8 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
88.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 47Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
88.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
88.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
88.7%
Clay Lawrence punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0189% → 88%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
88.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+5
88.5%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 5 yds to the MICH 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
88.3%
Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the MICH 22Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
87.8%
Tommy Doman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2712% → 12%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
87.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 12 yds to the MICH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
87.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the MICH 49Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
87.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
87.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
88.0%
Clay Lawrence punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:4488% → 87%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.1%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
88.1%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 19Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-9
87.7%
Davis Warren sacked by Ezra Christensen for a loss of 9 yards to the MICH 10Similar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
87.1%
Tommy Doman punt for 44 yds , Jalen Moss returns for no gain to the FRES 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:2313% → 16%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
87.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+23
87.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 23 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
86.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 7 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
86.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the MICH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
86.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the MICH 23Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
86.1%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the MICH 23Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
86.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
84.1%
Dylan Lynch 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 6:5685% → 85%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
84.9%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 27Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+11
84.8%
Davis Warren pass complete to Kendrick Bell for 11 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
85.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
85.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
85.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the FRES 47Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+10
85.0%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 10 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
85.1%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 12 yds to the FRES 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
85.3%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 27Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+3
85.2%
Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the FRES 24Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-3
84.7%
Davis Warren pass complete to Donovan Edwards for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 27Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+45
85.2%
Dominic Zvada 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 9 yds to the FRES 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 5:3286% → 88%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
86.4%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 3 yds to the MICH 30Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+1
86.4%
Alex Orji run for 1 yd to the MICH 31Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+20
85.9%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 20 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
87.4%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
87.3%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds to the FRES 43Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+9
87.1%
Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 9 yds to the FRES 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
87.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-10
87.6%
EDWARDS, Donovan rush to the left for a gain of 10 yards to the FS21 (FOREMAN, Korey), out of bounds. PENALTY UOM Holding on PRIEBE, Josh enforced 10 yards from the FS31 to the FS41 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 17
OPP 41
0
86.9%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+6
86.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+53
88.0%
Dominic Zvada 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 4:0112% → 12%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
88.2%
Mikey Keene sacked by Rayshaun Benny for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 17Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+19
88.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 19 yds to the FRES 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.8%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 36Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
87.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 12 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.2%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 48Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
87.4%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 8
50
-1
87.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 49Similar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
88.3%
Clay Lawrence punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:2589% → 88%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
88.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 10Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+11
88.4%
Alex Orji run for 11 yds to the MICH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
88.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
89.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
88.9%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
88.7%
Alex Orji run for 11 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
89.6%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
89.4%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
88.6%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
88.1%
Tommy Doman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4512% → 10%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
88.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the FRES 16Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
88.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
89.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
89.8%
Clay Lawrence punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:2890% → 95%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
89.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 8 yds to the MICH 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
90.6%
Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 3 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
90.6%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
90.7%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+8
90.0%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 8 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
90.8%
Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the FRES 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
90.7%
Alex Orji pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
90.2%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+55
94.8%
Dominic Zvada 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:367% → 23%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
93.4%
Malik Sherrod run for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 22Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+28
93.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
50
+16
92.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 16 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
91.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for 15 yds to the MICH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
91.3%
Joshua Wood run for 3 yds to the MICH 16Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
91.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+16
77.2%
Raylen Sharpe 16 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 4:1787% → 97%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
87.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MICH 34Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
87.4%
Alex Orji run for 6 yds to the MICH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
88.7%
Kalel Mullings run for 21 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
89.2%
Kalel Mullings run for 15 yds to the FRES 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
89.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the FRES 18Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+18
96.7%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 18 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21INT TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 5:435% → 1%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+15
93.7%
Michigan Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (TJ Guy) to the MICH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
93.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 10 yds to the MICH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
95.0%
KEENE, Mikey pass up the middle intercepted by PAIGE, Makari at the FS39 intended for MOSS, Jalen. Paige return for 27 yards to the FS12 (VELEZ, Osmar). PENALTY UOM Roughing the Passer on GUY, T.J. enforced 15 yards from the FS25 to the FS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
94.0%
Fresno State Penalty, False Start (Braylen Nelson) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 15
50
+11
94.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 11 yds to the MICH 39Similar
Q4 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-86
99.3%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Will Johnson return for 86 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.5%
Michigan Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaishawn Barham) to the MICH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:381% → 1%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kamron Beachem for 9 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Chedon James for 3 yds to the FRES 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
99.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 15 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-14
99.4%
Mikey Keene sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 14 yards to the FRES 38Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 24
OWN 38
+6
99.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 6 yds to the FRES 44Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 18
OWN 44
+2
99.5%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 16
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Clay Lawrence punt for 36 yds, downed at the MICH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
99.5%
Kneel down by WARREN, Davis at UOM15 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:06
Raylen Sharpe 16 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)
-14.1
TD · Q4 5:43
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 18 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q4 3:57
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Will Johnson return for 86 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com