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ILST

Illinois State 0 at Iowa 40

IOWA
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadILST aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreILST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+9.6IOWA 85.4%Cade McNamara pass complete to ReeceVander Zee for 7 yds for a TD(Two-Point Conversion failed)AWAY 0 - HOME 12 · Q3 11:32
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:32 · Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Home team on offense+14.4Pregame prior+8.7Score differential+5.0Garbage-time factor+4.9Blowout margin−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:00: Drew Stevens 28 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +3.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Illinois State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the IOWA 40 for a 1ST down — IOWA win probability +4.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:32: Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — IOWA win probability +9.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:46: Cade McNamara pass complete to Jacob Gill for 31 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +9.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:54: Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 19 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8ILST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 14:20ILST 4th & 9 at ILST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:48IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:16IOWA 4th & 5 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:35IOWA 4th & 4 at ILST 23, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:20ILST 4th & 10 at ILST 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:16IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:29ILST 4th & 11 at ILST 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:01IOWA 4th & 2 at ILST 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.6%−1.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:19ILST 4th & 12 at ILST 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:41IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:56ILST 4th & 8 at ILST 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:00IOWA 4th & 6 at ILST 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−6.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:20ILST 4th & 1 at ILST 34, down 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:31ILST 4th & 10 at ILST 37, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:45IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 35, up 19
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:35ILST 4th & 4 at IOWA 38, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−1.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:23ILST 4th & 3 at ILST 31, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:07ILST 4th & 11 at ILST 37, down 33
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q3 11:32IOWA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:46IOWA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:54IOWA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:09IOWA Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:48IOWA Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILSTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3930% → 30%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.6%
Tommy Rittenhouse run for 1 yd to the ILST 26Similar
Q1 14:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
69.6%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
69.6%
Hayden Futch punt for 39 yds, downed at the IOWA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2270% → 69%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
69.5%
Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the IOWA 38Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
69.5%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the IOWA 39Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
69.3%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
69.2%
Rhys Dakin punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 3INT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:5631% → 32%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
69.3%
Tommy Rittenhouse sacked by Aaron Graves for a loss of 3 yards to the ILST 23Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+2
69.2%
Mason King run for 2 yds to the ILST 25Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+15
69.3%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass complete to Daniel Sobkowicz for 15 yds to the ILST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
68.9%
(11:30) RITTENHOUSE, Tommy pass short to the right complete for 14 yards to BARTOL, Mitch caught at the ISU42 and advanced to the UI46 (NWANKPA, Xavier), clock 11:23. PENALTY ISU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WOODARD, Landon enforced 5 yards from the ISU40 to the ISU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+9
69.0%
Tommy Rittenhouse run for 9 yds to the ILST 44Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
68.6%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass complete to Xavier Loyd for 7 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
68.4%
Wenkers Wright run for 3 yds to the IOWA 46Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
68.3%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass intercepted Jermari Harris return for no gain to the IOWA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3169% → 69%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
69.3%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
69.1%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the IOWA 46Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+4
68.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 5
50
0
68.6%
Rhys Dakin punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:5232% → 32%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
68.4%
Wenkers Wright run for 3 yds to the ILST 20Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
68.3%
Wenkers Wright run for 6 yds to the ILST 26Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
68.2%
Wenkers Wright run for 3 yds to the ILST 29 Wenkers Wright fumbled, recovered by IOWA TJ Hall T. Hall return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3069% → 69%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
69.3%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
69.2%
Leshon Williams run for no gain to the ILST 29Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+6
68.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Leshon Williams for 6 yds to the ILST 23Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
69.4%
Drew Stevens 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1431% → 30%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.3%
Jake Rubley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.3%
Jake Rubley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Jake Rubley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
69.9%
Hayden Futch punt for 40 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for no gain Iowa Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the IOWA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4769% → 68%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
69.0%
Kamari Moulton run for 7 yds to the IOWA 38Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
69.6%
Kamari Moulton run for no gain to the IOWA 38Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+7
69.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Lachey for 7 yds to the IOWA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
69.7%
Leshon Williams run for 2 yds to the IOWA 47Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
69.4%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
68.6%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
68.1%
Rhys Dakin punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4031% → 30%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
68.7%
Tommy Rittenhouse run for 9 yds to the ILST 29Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
68.0%
Seth Glatz run for 1 yd to the ILST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
68.5%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
68.7%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-1
69.1%
Seth Glatz run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILST 29Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
69.6%
Hayden Futch punt for 42 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for no gain to the IOWA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:1968% → 69%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
68.4%
Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the IOWA 32Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+18
68.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
50
+12
69.5%
Kamari Moulton run for 22 yds to the ILST 28 Iowa Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacob Gill) to the IOWA 46Similar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 14
OWN 46
-5
68.7%
Iowa Penalty, False Start (Jacob Gill) to the IOWA 41Similar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 19
OWN 41
+6
68.5%
Kamari Moulton run for 6 yds to the IOWA 47Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+10
68.5%
Kamari Moulton run for 10 yds to the ILST 43Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+1
69.3%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the ILST 42Similar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
68.5%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the ILST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3833% → 31%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
67.2%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass complete to Dylan Lord for 10 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
66.6%
Tommy Rittenhouse sacked by Aaron Graves for a loss of 5 yards to the ILST 46Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+3
67.9%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass complete to Xavier Loyd for 3 yds to the ILST 49Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
67.8%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 12
OWN 49
+17
68.7%
Hayden Futch punt for 44 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 17 yds to the IOWA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:2468% → 68%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
67.8%
Kamari Moulton run for 6 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
68.5%
Kamari Moulton run for no gain to the IOWA 30Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+4
67.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Jacob Gill for 4 yds to the IOWA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
68.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Lachey for 7 yds to the IOWA 41Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
70.0%
Leshon Williams run for no gain to the IOWA 41Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
69.1%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+44
67.8%
Rhys Dakin punt for 44 yds , Braden Contreras returns for no gain to the ILST 14 , returns for no gain to the ILST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:4432% → 30%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
68.1%
Tommy Rittenhouse run for 2 yds to the ILST 16Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+19
68.1%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass complete to Daniel Sobkowicz for 19 yds to the ILST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
67.4%
(05:37) RITTENHOUSE, Tommy sacked for a loss of 8 yards at the ISU27, fumble on the sack (forced by HURKETT, Ethan), clock 05:20. PENALTY UI Holding on HIGGINS, Jay enforced 10 yards from the ISU35 to the ISU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
66.3%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass complete to Javon Charles for 3 yds to the ILST 48Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
65.9%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-1
66.4%
Tommy Rittenhouse sacked by Aaron Graves for a loss of 1 yard to the ILST 47Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+23
68.3%
Hayden Futch punt for 35 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 23 yds to the IOWA 41Similar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
69.7%
(03:47) QB Keeper MCNAMARA, Cade rush up the middle for a gain of 20 yards to the ISU39 (JACKSON, Keondre), clock 03:37. PENALTY Before the snap, UI Illegal Motion on LACHEY, Luke enforced 5 yards from the UI41 to the UI36. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 2:2168% → 74%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+3
68.4%
Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the IOWA 39Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+17
68.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Lachey for 17 yds to the ILST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
70.5%
Kamari Moulton run for 7 yds to the ILST 37Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
70.2%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+11
69.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Jacob Gill for 11 yds to the ILST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
70.9%
Cade McNamara run for 12 yds to the ILST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
70.9%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
71.0%
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the ILST 10Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
70.2%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
73.9%
Drew Stevens 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:5529% → 26%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
70.7%
Wenkers Wright run for 6 yds to the ILST 36Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
69.3%
Wenkers Wright run for 4 yds to the ILST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.2%
Illinois State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the IOWA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:2676% → 85%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
75.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
50
0
76.2%
Kamari Moulton run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 10
50
+17
76.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 17 yds to the ILST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
76.7%
Kamari Moulton run for 4 yds to the ILST 29Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
76.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the ILST 26Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+19
75.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Lachey for 19 yds to the ILST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
85.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0718% → 17%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.4%
Wenkers Wright run for 5 yds to the ILST 30Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
82.0%
Jake Rubley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
82.4%
Jake Rubley pass complete to Mitch Bartol for 4 yds to the ILST 34Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+31
82.8%
Hayden Futch punt for 31 yds , Zach Lutmer returns for a loss of 1 yard to the IOWA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:2685% → 95%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
84.9%
(10:12) MCNAMARA, Cade pass to the left incomplete intended for VANDER ZEE, Reece thrown to the UI43, clock 10:08. PENALTY ISU Pass Interference on PARKS, Teon enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the UI42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
85.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 12 yds to the ILST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
86.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILST 47Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+8
86.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Kaleb Johnson for 8 yds to the ILST 39Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+8
85.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Lachey for 8 yds to the ILST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
94.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Jacob Gill for 31 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:158% → 7%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.9%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the ILST 30Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
91.5%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the ILST 34Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
92.1%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the ILST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
92.2%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the ILST 33Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
92.8%
Jake Rubley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+4
93.0%
Jake Rubley run for 4 yds to the ILST 37Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
93.0%
Hayden Futch punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3995% → 96%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
95.2%
Kaleb Johnson run for 5 yds to the IOWA 21Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
95.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the IOWA 25Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
95.5%
Kamari Moulton run for 2 yds to the IOWA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
95.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
95.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Lachey for 5 yds to the IOWA 35Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
95.9%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
95.7%
Rhys Dakin punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Braden Contreras at the ILST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:066% → 6%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+37
93.8%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass complete to Xavier Loyd for 37 yds to the IOWA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
93.4%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
93.4%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+6
93.6%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass complete to Xavier Loyd for 6 yds to the IOWA 38Similar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
94.0%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:3896% → 99%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
96.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 11 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
96.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 9
50
+31
96.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Zach Ortwerth for 31 yds to the ILST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 19 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.7%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass complete to Josh Robinson for 3 yds to the ILST 27Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
99.7%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the ILST 28Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+3
99.7%
Jake Rubley pass complete to Dylan Lord for 3 yds to the ILST 31Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+5
99.7%
Hayden Futch punt for 51 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for 5 yds to the IOWA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 2:0199% → 100%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
99.4%
Leshon Williams run for 4 yds to the IOWA 27Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+6
99.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Leshon Williams for 6 yds Leshon Williams fumbled, recovered by IOWA Addison Ostrenga A. Ostrenga return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.5%
Leshon Williams run for 3 yds to the IOWA 36Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+64
99.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 64 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
99.9%
Tommy Rittenhouse pass complete to Dylan Lord for 16 yds to the ILST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Wenkers Wright run for 5 yds to the ILST 43Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
Wenkers Wright run for 1 yd to the ILST 44Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-7
99.9%
Tommy Rittenhouse sacked by Brian Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the ILST 37Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 11
OWN 37
-3
99.9%
Hayden Futch run for a loss of 3 yards to the ILST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 3:10100% → 100%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
99.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 6 yds to the ILST 28Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-5
99.9%
(08:17) MCNAMARA, Cade pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to ORTWERTH, Zach caught at the ISU26 and advanced to the ISU23 (WILSON, Cam), clock 08:11. PENALTY UI Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on COLBY, Connor enforced 5 yards from the ISU28 to the ISU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+6
99.9%
Jacob Gill run for 6 yds to the ILST 27Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+5
99.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 5 yds to the ILST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
99.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 4 yds to the ILST 18Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 18 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILSTDrive 27FUMBLE
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:380% → 0%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Seth Glatz run for 3 yds to the ILST 33Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
Seth Glatz run for 5 yds to the ILST 38Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Beckham Pellant pass complete to Tommy Donovan for 3 yds to the ILST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
99.9%
Seth Glatz run for 1 yd to the ILST 42Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
99.9%
Seth Glatz run for 5 yds to the ILST 47Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+4
100.0%
Beckham Pellant pass complete to Tommy Donovan for 4 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Seth Glatz run for no gain to the IOWA 49Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-11
99.9%
Beckham Pellant run for a loss of 11 yards to the ILST 40 Beckham Pellant fumbled, recovered by IOWA Caden Crawford C. Crawford return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 30 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
100.0%
Terrell Washington Jr. run for 9 yds to the ILST 31Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+17
100.0%
Max White run for 17 yds to the ILST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
100.0%
Max White run for 4 yds to the ILST 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:32
Cade McNamara pass complete to Reece Vander Zee for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+9.6
TD · Q3 7:46
Cade McNamara pass complete to Jacob Gill for 31 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
+9
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Illinois State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the IOWA 40 for a 1ST down
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com