2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:11 · Daton Montiel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Myles Price at the IU 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:23: Ty Son Lawton run for 13 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +1.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:53: Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK) — IU win probability +4.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:48: Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Rocky Beers for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK) — FIU win probability +5.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:44: Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the IU 28 — IU win probability +3.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:51: Nicolas Radicic 35 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +1.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 14:44IU 4th & 5 at IU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snapGo for it93.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.1%average punt
- Q1 13:11FIU 4th & 15 at FIU 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q1 5:56FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snapGo for it8.2%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q2 12:58FIU 4th & 21 at FIU 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.89% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%average punt
- Q3 12:22FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 36, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.531% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.4%average punt
- Q3 7:20IU 4th & 4 at FIU 36, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.0%48% to convertField goal93.2%−0.742% to makePunt93.0%−1.0average punt
- Q3 5:51IU 4th & 10 at FIU 17, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snapGo for it92.9%−0.727% to convertField goalTheir call93.6%80% to makePunt89.8%−3.8average punt
- Q3 4:20FIU 4th & 18 at FIU 17, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it2.9%−1.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q3 0:23IU 4th & 12 at IU 31, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snapGo for it95.7%−0.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.6%average punt
- Q4 11:07FIU 4th & 13 at IU 43, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%−0.421% to convertField goal2.6%−0.328% to makePunt2.9%average punt
- Q4 9:10IU 4th & 17 at IU 39, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it96.5%−0.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q4 7:33FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 35, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.5%−0.5average punt
- Q4 5:34FIU 4th & 19 at FIU 38, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%−0.511% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.1%average punt
- Q4 3:31IU 4th & 13 at FIU 30, up 17Close callWent for it · 98.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.9%−0.220% to convertField goal98.1%56% to makePunt97.8%−0.3average punt
- Q4 2:00FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.4%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:14IU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.2%97% to makeGo for two92.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:23IU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:53IU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:48FIU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.5%97% to makeGo for two6.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:06IU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:1693% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 5 yds to the IU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:217% → 8%
IUDrive 3TD8 plays · 58 yds · 3:5392% → 92%
FIUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 3:168% → 9%
Q1 8:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
91.8%
Keyone Jenkins run for no gain to the FIU 27 Keyone Jenkins fumbled, recovered by FIU Keyone JenkinsSimilar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
91.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Rocky Beers for 8 yds to the FIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
91.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 1 yd to the FIU 41Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
91.4%
Daton Montiel punt for 35 yds , Myles Price returns for no gain to the IU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5TD9 plays · 76 yds · 4:2491% → 93%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
91.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 9 yds to the IU 33Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
91.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 5 yds to the IU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+26
91.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 26 yds to the FIU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 3:258% → 8%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
92.1%
(01:23) JENKINS, Keyone pass short to the left incomplete intended for MIAMEN, Josiah thrown to the FIU29, clock 01:18. PENALTY IND Roughing the Passer on FISHER, Aiden enforced 15 yards from the FIU25 to the FIU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
92.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Desna Washington for 8 yds to the FIU 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
91.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 3 yds to the IU 45Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 6
OPP 44
-15
92.0%
Florida International Penalty, Personal Foul (JaDarious Lee) to the FIU 41Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 21
OWN 41
0
92.2%
Daton Montiel punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Myles Price at the IU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7TD19 plays · 93 yds · 8:0593% → 97%
Q2 12:25
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+10
92.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 10 yds to the IU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
92.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 7 yds to the IU 29Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
92.8%
Kurtis Rourke run for no gain to the IU 38 Kurtis Rourke fumbled, recovered by IU Kurtis Rourke K. Rourke return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
92.6%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass to the left incomplete intended for VANHORSE, Solomon thrown to the IND48, clock 10:33. PENALTY FIU Offsides enforced 5 yards from the IND38 to the IND43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+9
92.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 9 yds to the FIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-10
92.4%
(09:25) ROURKE, Kurtis pass to the left complete for 0 yards to PRICE, Myles caught at the IND49 and advanced to the FIU49 (STERLIN, Shamir;ANDERSON, J.T.), clock 09:17. PENALTY IND Holding on SARRATT, Elijah enforced 10 yards from the FIU49 to the IND41 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 21
OWN 41
+30
91.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 30 yds to the FIU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
92.4%
Kurtis Rourke run for a loss of 2 yards to the FIU 31 Kurtis Rourke fumbled, recovered by IU Kurtis Rourke K. Rourke return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+10
91.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 10 yds to the FIU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
92.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Zach Horton for 13 yds to the FIU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8TD16 plays · 75 yds · 4:034% → 10%
Q2 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
95.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Rocky Beers for 3 yds to the FIU 32Similar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
95.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kejon Owens for 8 yds to the FIU 44Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
95.5%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Rocky Beers for no gain to the IU 46Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+11
95.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 11 yds to the IU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
90.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Rocky Beers for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 2:358% → 7%
Q3 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
92.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 8 yds to the FIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+3
92.5%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 3 yds to the FIU 36Similar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
92.7%
Daton Montiel punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Myles Price at the IU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11FG13 plays · 68 yds · 6:2693% → 96%
Q3 10:33
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+5
93.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 5 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
93.7%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Jeramy Passmore for a loss of 4 yards to the FIU 46Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+9
93.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Myles Price for 9 yds to the FIU 36Similar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+19
93.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Justice Ellison for 19 yds to the FIU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:395% → 4%
Q3 5:05
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-6
95.5%
Keyone Jenkins sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the FIU 17 Keyone Jenkins fumbled, recovered by FIU Keyone Jenkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
95.8%
Daton Montiel punt for 54 yds , Myles Price returns for no gain to the IU 20Similar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
96.0%
(04:12) ROURKE, Kurtis scrambles up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the IND24 (WALLS III, Eddie;POTTS, Jamal), clock 04:05. PENALTY Before the snap, IND Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the IND20 to the IND15. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 3:2596% → 96%
Q3 1:07
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-10
96.6%
(01:07) ROURKE, Kurtis pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Ke'Shawn thrown to the FIU45, clock 01:01. PENALTY IND Holding on EVANS, Drew enforced 10 yards from the IND39 to the IND29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
96.1%
James Evans punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FIU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14DOWNS10 plays · 34 yds · 4:104% → 3%
Q4 14:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+12
96.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Nazeviah Burris for 12 yds to the FIU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
96.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Lexington Joseph for no gain to the FIU 34Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+13
96.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Desna Washington for 13 yds to the FIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 7
50
+10
96.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 10 yds to the IU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-8
96.4%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Andrew Turvy for a loss of 8 yards to the IU 47Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 13
OPP 43
-20
97.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass intercepted Amare Ferrell return for 20 yds to the IU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4898% → 97%
Q4 10:24
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-10
97.5%
(10:24) LAWTON, Ty Son rush to the right for no gain to the IND49 (BLADES II, Brian), clock 10:19. PENALTY IND Holding on COOPER JR., Omar enforced 10 yards from the IND49 to the IND39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
97.1%
James Evans punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FIU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16DOWNS9 plays · 25 yds · 3:313% → 2%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
97.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 5 yds to the FIU 31Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
97.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 3 yds to the FIU 34Similar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
97.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 11 yds to the FIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-9
97.4%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Marcus Burris Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the FIU 38Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 19
OWN 38
+7
97.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 7 yds to the IU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17DOWNS12 plays · 20 yds · 1:5598% → 99%
Q4 4:06
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-10
98.7%
(04:06) ROURKE, Kurtis pass to the right complete for 11 yards to CROSS, Miles caught at the FIU13 and advanced to the FIU13, out of bounds, clock 03:57. PENALTY IND Holding enforced 10 yards from the FIU24 to the FIU34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 13
OPP 30
-1
98.9%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Dwight Nunoo for a loss of 1 yard to the FIU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 2 yds to the FIU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19TD2 plays · 39 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
FIUDrive 20END OF GAME3 plays · 2 yds · 0:370% → 0%
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.8%
(00:33) JONES, Amari pass up the middle incomplete intended for MAURICE JR., Luby thrown to the FIU31, clock 00:31. PENALTY FIU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on FERGUSON, Antonio enforced 5 yards from the FIU25 to the FIU20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:48
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Rocky Beers for 7 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK)
-5.5
TD · Q2 4:53
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds for a TD (Nicolas Radicic KICK)
+4.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:44
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the IU 28
+3.5