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UNC

North Carolina 19 at Minnesota 17

MINN
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2024 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:28 · Mark Crawford punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Omarion Hampton at the UNC 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialBlowout margin
+20.5+10.30−10.3−20.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Home team on offense+2.7Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score differential+0.5Blowout margin−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:35: Marcus Major run for 5 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +9.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:55: Max Brosmer run for 1 yd for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +11.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 9:05: Noah Burnette 42 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +12.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 3:40: Dragan Kesich 30 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +15.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:44: Noah Burnette 45 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +38.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:15MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:29UNC 4th & 3 at MINN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:18MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:48UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:50MINN 4th & 1 at UNC 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%−0.6
    80% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:33MINN 4th & 9 at UNC 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:37MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−2.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:07UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:34UNC 4th & 7 at MINN 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−10.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:37MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−2.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:19UNC 4th & 8 at MINN 34, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.6%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:28MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−5.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:16UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:05UNC 4th & 12 at MINN 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−5.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−14.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:40MINN 4th & 12 at UNC 12, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−14.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−28.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:44UNC 4th & 7 at MINN 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−11.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−21.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:12UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:35MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:55MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4449% → 49%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.1%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.1%
Daniel Jackson run for 3 yds to the MINN 28Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
49.2%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:15
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
49.2%
Mark Crawford punt for 48 yds , Alijah Huzzie returns for no gain to the UNC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:3551% → 50%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
49.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the MINN 48Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
49.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 3 yds to the MINN 45Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+7
49.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to J.J. Jones for 7 yds to the MINN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
49.3%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
49.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the MINN 32Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+1
49.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the MINN 31Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
49.6%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0750% → 50%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
49.9%
Marcus Major run for 7 yds to the MINN 38Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
50.3%
Marcus Major run for no gain to the MINN 38Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+1
50.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jordan Nubin for 1 yd to the MINN 39Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
50.0%
Mark Crawford punt for 58 yds, downed at the UNC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1950% → 49%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
50.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 5Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+1
50.3%
Max Johnson run for 1 yd to the UNC 6Similar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
50.5%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
50.7%
Tom Maginness punt for 55 yds, downed at the MINN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5MISSED FG
16 plays · 52 yds · 7:0851% → 51%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
50.6%
Marcus Major run for no gain to the MINN 39Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-9
50.7%
Max Brosmer sacked by Jahvaree Ritzie for a loss of 9 yards to the MINN 30Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 19
OWN 30
+19
49.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jordan Nubin for 19 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
51.5%
(05:48) BROSMER, Max pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON, Daniel broken up by ALLEN, Marcus at the UNC24, clock 05:44. PENALTY UNC Illegal Substitution declined UNC Pass Interference on ALLEN, Marcus enforced 15 yards to the UNC36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
52.1%
Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+6
52.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 6 yds to the UNC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
52.5%
Max Brosmer run for 2 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
52.5%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+7
52.1%
Marcus Major run for 7 yds to the UNC 17Similar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+8
51.7%
Marcus Major run for 8 yds to the UNC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
53.1%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
53.1%
Jordan Nubin run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 10Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
52.8%
Marcus Major run for 1 yd to the UNC 9Similar
Q1 0:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
52.1%
Dragan Kesich 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
50.5%
(00:29) JOHNSON, Max sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the UNC10, fumble on the sack (forced by MCMILLAN, Jai'Onte'), recovered by UMN LINDENBERG, Cody at the UNC10, returned 0 yards to the UNC10, End of Play, clock 00:23. PENALTY UMN Holding on GOUSBY, Aidan enforced 10 yards from the UNC20 to the UNC30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:0150% → 59%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
50.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 15 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
49.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 16 yds to the MINN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
48.7%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
48.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the MINN 38Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+16
49.0%
Max Johnson run for 16 yds to the MINN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
47.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the MINN 20Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+10
47.8%
(12:41) JOHNSON, Max pass deep to the left incomplete thrown to the UMN4, clock 12:35. PENALTY UMN Personal Foul on EASTERN, Deven enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the UMN20 to the UMN10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
47.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the MINN 6Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
47.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the MINN 3Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
41.2%
Max Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:3344% → 42%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.8%
Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the MINN 28Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
43.8%
Max Brosmer sacked by Amare Campbell for a loss of 4 yards to the MINN 24Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-2
42.1%
Max Brosmer sacked by Jahvaree Ritzie for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 22Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+24
41.7%
(08:57) CRAWFORD, Mark punt 47 yards to the UNC31, HUZZIE, Alijah returned 24 yards to the UMN45 (LECAPTAIN, Derik;MCMILLAN, Jai'Onte'), clock 08:43. PENALTY Before the snap, UMN Illegal Formation UNC Illegal Block in the Back , Offsetting penalties [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
41.6%
Mark Crawford punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-70
40.2%
Max Johnson pass intercepted Justin Walley return for 70 yds to the UNC 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:4346% → 56%
Q2 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
46.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Cristian Driver for 1 yd to the UNC 5Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
55.9%
Marcus Major run for 5 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2750% → 48%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
49.6%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-3
50.6%
Max Johnson sacked by Danny Striggow and Jah Joyner for a loss of 3 yards to the UNC 24Similar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+5
51.7%
Tom Maginness punt for 46 yds , Quentin Redding returns for 5 yds to the MINN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 5:0353% → 68%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
53.3%
Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the MINN 38Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
54.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Nick Kallerup for 6 yds to the MINN 44Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
54.9%
Marcus Major run for 3 yds to the MINN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
55.9%
Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+20
56.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 20 yds to the UNC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
57.1%
Marcus Major run for 7 yds to the UNC 22Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+19
56.7%
Marcus Major run for 19 yds to the UNC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
56.7%
Marcus Major run for 2 yds to the UNC 1Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.1%
Max Brosmer run for 1 yd for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:2236% → 35%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
63.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to J.J. Jones for 13 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
62.5%
JOHNSON, Max pass up the middle complete for 7 yards to MCCOLLUM, Nate caught at the UNC45 and advanced to the UNC45 (WALLEY, Justin), out of bounds, clock 00:42. PENALTY UNC Pass Interference on HAMILTON, Christian enforced 15 yards to the UNC23 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 25
OWN 23
-7
64.2%
Max Johnson sacked by Anthony Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 16Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 32
OWN 16
+5
65.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 5 yds to the UNC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13FG
17 plays · 70 yds · 8:1935% → 39%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
65.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+1
65.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 24Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+10
66.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 10 yds to the UNC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
65.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
65.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
64.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
64.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 5
50
+5
64.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 5 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
64.1%
Darwin Barlow run for 2 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
64.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 7 yds to the MINN 36Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+5
64.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the MINN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
63.1%
Nate McCollum run for 9 yds to the MINN 22Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+7
62.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Christian Hamilton for 7 yds to the MINN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
62.9%
Max Johnson run for no gain to the MINN 15Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-3
63.0%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 3 yards to the MINN 18Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+6
67.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 6 yds to the MINN 12Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
61.5%
Noah Burnette 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5665% → 63%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.3%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.0%
Marcus Major run for 1 yd to the MINN 26Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
63.9%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
63.2%
Mark Crawford punt for 57 yds, downed at the UNC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 5:0436% → 41%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
64.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 21Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+3
63.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 3 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+9
64.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
63.1%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
63.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Omarion Hampton for no gain to the UNC 33Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+10
65.8%
(03:06) JOHNSON, Max pass up the middle incomplete intended for BILLUPS II, Paul thrown to the UNC40; QB hurried by WALLEY, Justin, clock 03:02. PENALTY UMN Holding on BRYAN, Za'Quan enforced 10 yards from the UNC33 to the UNC43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
61.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 48Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
60.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the MINN 49Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+13
60.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 13 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
60.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the MINN 35Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+1
58.7%
Conner Harrell run for 1 yd to the MINN 34Similar
Q3 0:28
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
60.8%
Conner Harrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+52
58.7%
Noah Burnette 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4661% → 58%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.9%
Marcus Major run for no gain to the MINN 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.5%
Minnesota Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MINN 20Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
60.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 7 yds to the MINN 27Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-4
59.2%
Max Brosmer sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 4 yards to the MINN 23Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
57.8%
Mark Crawford punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Omarion Hampton at the UNC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0544% → 40%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
56.3%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 2 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
56.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 46Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
56.3%
Conner Harrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
59.9%
Tom Maginness punt for 52 yds, downed at the MINN 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:2361% → 61%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+11
60.7%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Marcus Major for 11 yds to the MINN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
61.3%
Max Brosmer run for 9 yds to the MINN 22 Max Brosmer fumbled, recovered by UNC Travis Shaw T. Shaw return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0048% → 58%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
52.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the MINN 20Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-2
52.3%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 22Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-2
54.7%
Conner Harrell run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 24 Conner Harrell fumbled, recovered by UNC Jakiah Leftwich J. Leftwich return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+42
42.4%
Noah Burnette 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 5:2449% → 64%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
49.0%
Max Brosmer sacked by Jahvaree Ritzie for a loss of 5 yards to the MINN 20Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+20
48.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 20 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
52.8%
Marcus Major run for 1 yd to the MINN 41Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
50.1%
Cristian Driver run for 5 yds to the MINN 46Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+6
51.3%
Max Brosmer run for 6 yds to the UNC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+22
52.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 22 yds Le'Meke Brockington fumbled, recovered by MINN Marcus Major M. Major return for 16 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
52.0%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
52.0%
Marcus Major run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 12Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
48.6%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
63.6%
Dragan Kesich 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 1:5339% → 82%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
60.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 13 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
57.9%
Conner Harrell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 32 yds to the MINN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
53.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the MINN 27Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+2
52.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the MINN 25Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-2
54.9%
Conner Harrell run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 27Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
17.7%
Noah Burnette 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 1:4031% → 19%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
30.5%
(01:42) BROSMER, Max pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON, Daniel broken up by ALLEN, Marcus at the UNC45, clock 01:37. PENALTY UNC Pass Interference on ALLEN, Marcus enforced 15 yards to the UMN40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
34.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 20 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
37.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 8 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 2
OPP 32
-10
35.8%
(00:48) MAJOR, Marcus rush to the left for a gain of 14 yards to the UNC18 (ECHOLS, Power), out of bounds, clock 00:44. PENALTY UMN Holding on COOPER, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the UNC32 to the UNC42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+9
27.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Jameson Geers for 9 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+4
29.3%
Jordan Nubin run for 4 yds to the UNC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
29.4%
Max Brosmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
24.8%
Marcus Major run for no gain to the UNC 29Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+47
18.8%
Dragan Kesich 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:44
Noah Burnette 45 yd FG GOOD
-38.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-18.8
FG · Q4 3:40
Dragan Kesich 30 yd FG GOOD
+15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com