2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreTENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:41 · Jesse Mirco punt for 51 yds, downed at the TENN 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:38: Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 86 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +10.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:22: Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 18 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +9.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:22: Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (Kolbey Taylor) to the 50 yard line — VAN win probability +2.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:43: Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mike Matthews for 14 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +10.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:53: Richie Hoskins 31 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Sedrick Alexander Run for Two-Point Conversion) — VAN win probability +7.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 4:01VAN 4th & 2 at TENN 14, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snapGo for it36.5%56% to convertField goalTheir call36.2%−0.384% to makePunt33.8%−2.6average punt
- Q1 2:19TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 44, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt61.3%−0.9average punt
- Q2 11:32VAN 4th & 2 at TENN 46, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call44.5%57% to convertField goal41.4%−3.123% to makePunt42.8%−1.6average punt
- Q2 8:33TENN 4th & 5 at VAN 32, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snapGo for it52.4%42% to convertField goalTheir call52.1%−0.351% to makePunt51.2%−1.3average punt
- Q2 7:09VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 34, up 7Close callPunted · 46.9% before the snapGo for it47.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.8%−0.9average punt
- Q2 2:41VAN 4th & 18 at VAN 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snapGo for it38.1%−1.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.3%average punt
- Q3 5:50VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snapGo for it15.3%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.8%average punt
- Q3 1:59TENN 4th & 11 at VAN 40, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snapGo for it88.1%−0.227% to convertField goal88.0%−0.334% to makePuntTheir call88.3%average punt
- Q4 8:24TENN 4th & 4 at VAN 4, up 16Close callKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snapGo for it94.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call94.2%−0.393% to makePunt90.9%−3.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 14:47VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.5%97% to makeGo for two27.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:22VAN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.5%97% to makeGo for two32.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:48TENN Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.8%97% to makeGo for two67.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:38TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.3%97% to makeGo for two59.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:22TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.4%97% to makeGo for two70.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:43TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.7%97% to makeGo for two80.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:53VAN Touchdown, down 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick6.7%−0.297% to makeGo for twoTheir call6.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTENNDrive 2FUMBLE3 plays · 9 yds · 0:2078% → 78%
VANDrive 3TD7 plays · 26 yds · 3:4422% → 27%
Q1 13:20
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+6
22.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 6 yds to the TENN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4TD8 plays · 73 yds · 1:1774% → 75%
VANDrive 5FG11 plays · 61 yds · 4:3826% → 31%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 2 yds to the VAN 27Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
26.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Sedrick Alexander, broken up by Joshua JosephsSimilar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
26.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 15 yds to the VAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
29.7%
Pavia, Diego pass incomplete, PENALTY TENN face mask (Moi, Jaxson) 15 yards to the TENN22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VAN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3670% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7INT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2733% → 35%
Q2 14:46
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
35.0%
Diego Pavia pass intercepted, touchback. Jermod McCoy return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
35.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass intercepted Martel Hight return for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9DOWNS10 plays · 19 yds · 3:0535% → 37%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
34.5%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (Kolbey Taylor) to the VAN 19Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+15
34.6%
Pavia, Diego pass incomplete to Sherrill, Junior, PENALTY TENN roughing passer (Josephs, Joshua) 15 yards to the VAN36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VAN.Similar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
35.8%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (Omari Thomas) to the VAN 41Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-1
37.4%
Diego Pavia sacked by Will Brooks and Bryson Eason for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10FG8 plays · 21 yds · 2:5063% → 61%
Q2 11:05
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+8
36.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 8 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2041% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD2 plays · 91 yds · 0:2458% → 68%
VANDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 3:4534% → 35%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
38.3%
Alexander, Sedrick rush for 8 yards to the TENN39, PENALTY VAN holding (Spence, Cole) 10 yards to the VAN43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 20
OWN 43
0
36.8%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Quincy Skinner Jr., broken up by Will BrooksSimilar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+8
36.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 8 yds to the TENN 49Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 12
OPP 49
-6
36.8%
Diego Pavia sacked by Omarr Norman-Lott and Joshua Josephs for a loss of 6 yards to the VAN 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD16 plays · 96 yds · 2:1466% → 77%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
33.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 4 yds to the TENN 8Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+6
34.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 6 yds to the TENN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
33.6%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kolbey Taylor) to the TENN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+15
31.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 15 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+14
31.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 14 yds to the VAN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
20.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 18 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
23.2%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (Kolbey Taylor) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16TD16 plays · 75 yds · 6:0876% → 89%
Q3 14:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
22.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 5 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
22.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Mike Matthews, broken up by CJ TaylorSimilar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+5
22.1%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Defensive Offside (Bryan Longwell) to the VAN 20Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
11.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mike Matthews for 14 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3915% → 14%
Q3 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+17
14.5%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the VAN 20 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Jermod McCoy) to the VAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+4
14.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 4 yds to the VAN 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 41 yds · 3:3989% → 91%
Q3 5:11
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
10.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ethan Davis for 6 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
10.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mike Matthews for 11 yds to the TENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
9.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mike Matthews for 5 yds to the VAN 48Similar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
8.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 4 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
8.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Squirrel White, broken up by Bryan LongwellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19SF2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4312% → 11%
TENNDrive 20FG15 plays · 46 yds · 7:3894% → 98%
Q3 0:29
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
5.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 3 yds to the VAN 41Similar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
5.3%
Iamaleava, Nico pass incomplete to Matthews, Mike, PENALTY TENN ineligible downfield on pass (Mays, Cooper) 5 yards to the VAN35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
5.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 8 yds to the VAN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21TD7 plays · 63 yds · 2:204% → 11%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
3.9%
Diego Pavia sacked by Jaxson Moi for a loss of 6 yards to the VAN 31Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+5
3.7%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (James Pearce Jr.) to the VAN 36Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+14
3.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
50
+24
3.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 24 yds to the TENN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+31
11.3%
Richie Hoskins 31 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Sedrick Alexander Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22END OF GAME13 plays · 57 yds · 5:2195% → 99%
Q4 3:56
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+5
3.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 20 yds to the TENN 43 Tennessee Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (John Campbell Jr.) to the TENN 28Similar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
2.2%
Nico Iamaleava run for a loss of 4 yards to the TENN 49 Nico Iamaleava fumbled, recovered by TENN Nico IamaleavaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:43
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mike Matthews for 14 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q2 6:38
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 86 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q2 0:22
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 18 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
-9.9