2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:50 · Aidan Swanson punt for 47 yds , Juju McDowell returns for 8 yds to the SC 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q4 6:48: Alex Herrera 42 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +15.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 6:33: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 3 yds to the CLEM 47 — CLEM win probability +12.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:08: LaNorris Sellers run for 20 yds for a TD (Alex Herrera KICK) — SC win probability +59.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:01: Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 24 yds to the CLEM 49 for a 1ST down — CLEM win probability +16.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: L. Sellers takes a knee — SC win probability +18.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 8SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 9:55CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 47, tiedClose callPunted · 58.9% before the snapGo for it58.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:55SC 4th & 5 at CLEM 47, tiedClose callPunted · 41.6% before the snapGo for it41.7%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 0:45CLEM 4th & 1 at SC 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.5%71% to convertField goal58.8%−0.787% to makePunt56.6%−2.9average punt
- Q2 13:32SC 4th & 9 at SC 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snapGo for it40.3%−0.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.2%average punt
- Q2 7:59CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 45, tiedClose callPunted · 59.2% before the snapGo for it59.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:02SC 4th & 17 at SC 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it39.8%−2.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.9%average punt
- Q2 2:50CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 20, tiedClose callPunted · 56.7% before the snapGo for it56.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 1:52SC 4th & 6 at SC 45, tiedClose callPunted · 44.3% before the snapGo for it43.7%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 3:01SC 4th & 27 at SC 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snapGo for it20.9%−5.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.0%average punt
- Q4 14:21CLEM 4th & 12 at CLEM 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snapGo for it80.2%−2.623% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.8%average punt
- Q4 9:18CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 17, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 84.2% before the snapGo for it84.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.3%−1.3average punt
- Q4 6:48SC 4th & 9 at CLEM 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snapGo for it14.2%−2.931% to convertField goalTheir call17.1%68% to makePunt6.4%−10.8average punt
- Q4 5:09CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 48, up 4Close callPunted · 82.2% before the snapGo for it81.8%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 5:09CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 48, up 4Close callPunted · 82.2% before the snapGo for it81.8%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.3%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 12:07CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.0%97% to makeGo for two63.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:20SC Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.0%97% to makeGo for two39.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:57CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.1%97% to makeGo for two69.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 1:08SC Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.6%97% to makeGo for two68.9%−3.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1FUMBLE7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4934% → 34%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
65.6%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by T.J. Parker for a loss of 5 yards to the CLEM 24 LaNorris Sellers fumbled, recovered by SC T.J. Parker , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 2:0466% → 66%
Q1 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+14
66.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 14 yds to the CLEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
66.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for 4 yds to the CLEM 44Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
65.9%
Aidan Swanson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalon Kilgore at the SC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 37 yds · 3:4834% → 35%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+20
65.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 20 yds to the SC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+7
65.0%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 7 yds to the SC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-1
64.4%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Sammy Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the CLEM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4DOWNS10 plays · 85 yds · 4:3565% → 65%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+36
65.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 36 yds to the CLEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+28
65.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 28 yds to the SC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
66.4%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 7 yds to the SC 23Similar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
66.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 4 yds to the SC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2836% → 35%
CLEMDrive 6TD3 plays · 57 yds · 1:0266% → 72%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+40
65.8%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 40 yds to the SC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3830% → 40%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
69.8%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 17 yds to the SC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:1664% → 64%
Q2 7:59
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
64.1%
Aidan Swanson punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jalon Kilgore at the SC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 2:5239% → 37%
Q2 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
61.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jared Brown for 12 yds to the SC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
60.0%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Joshua Simon for no gain to the SC 38Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 14
OWN 33
-3
62.0%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Wade Woodaz for a loss of 3 yards to the SC 30Similar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
62.6%
Kai Kroeger punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0563% → 61%
SCDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5242% → 41%
CLEMDrive 12END OF HALF9 plays · 35 yds · 1:4662% → 61%
Q2 1:19
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+10
60.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 10 yds to the CLEM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
62.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 7 yds to the CLEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
62.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 9 yds to the CLEM 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5363% → 78%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
62.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 9 yds to the CLEM 34Similar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
64.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 5 yds to the CLEM 43Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+7
64.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
66.3%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 5 yds to the SC 30Similar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
66.4%
PENALTY CLEM False Start (Haynes,Jay) 5 yards from SC25 to SC30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+12
65.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 12 yds to the SC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14FUMBLE5 plays · 41 yds · 1:5026% → 29%
CLEMDrive 15FUMBLE5 plays · 26 yds · 2:2478% → 81%
SCDrive 16PUNT8 plays · -6 yds · 2:0927% → 22%
Q3 3:33
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-11
72.5%
(03:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass incomplete deep right to Brown,Jared thrown to CLEM25 QB hurried by Carter,Barrett PENALTY SC Holding (Simon,Joshua) 11 yard from CLEM48 to SC41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 27
OWN 34
0
77.7%
Kai Kroeger punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 3:3579% → 83%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.2%
(02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Klubnik,Cade pass incomplete short middle to Briningstool,Jake thrown to CLEM35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SC Pass Interference (Smith,DQ) 9 yards from CLEM25 to CLEM34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
79.5%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 5 yds to the CLEM 39Similar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-9
84.7%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Bam Martin-Scott for a loss of 9 yards to the CLEM 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 40
-5
83.6%
(15:00) PENALTY CLEM False Start (Moore,T.J.) 5 yards from CLEM40 to CLEM35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 22
OWN 35
+10
82.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for 10 yds to the CLEM 45Similar
Q4 14:21
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
82.6%
Aidan Swanson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Juju McDowell at the SC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18INT8 plays · 60 yds · 3:3222% → 22%
CLEMDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1486% → 85%
Q4 9:18
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
84.9%
Aidan Swanson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Juju McDowell at the SC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20FG7 plays · 32 yds · 2:2520% → 33%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2481% → 83%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
81.0%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 3 yds to the CLEM 47Similar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
82.6%
Aidan Swanson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalon Kilgore at the SC 20Similar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
82.6%
Aidan Swanson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalon Kilgore at the SC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4927% → 91%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
72.8%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 17 yds to the SC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
66.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 8 yds to the CLEM 17Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 11
OPP 15
-5
69.1%
(01:18) PENALTY SC False Start (Thompson,Josiah) 5 yards from CLEM15 to CLEM20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23INT10 plays · 57 yds · 0:4926% → 26%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
26.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 24 yds to the CLEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
28.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to T.J. Moore for 12 yds to the SC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
39.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 6 yds to the SC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:08
LaNorris Sellers run for 20 yds for a TD (Alex Herrera KICK)
-59.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00
L. Sellers takes a knee
-18.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:01
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 24 yds to the CLEM 49 for a 1ST down
+16