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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreARK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:34 · Luke Bauer punt for 40 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 11:41: Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 12 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — ARK win probability +14.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:45: Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Craig KICK) — MIZ win probability +23.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q4 9:39: Blake Craig 34 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +8.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:19: Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 9 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — ARK win probability +38.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:53: Brady Cook run for 30 yds for a TD (Brady Cook pass to Luther Burden III for Two-Point Conversion) — MIZ win probability +33.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 12:09ARK 4th & 7 at MIZ 31, tiedClose callWent for it · 40.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.1%−<0.137% to convertField goal40.1%54% to makePunt40.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:34MIZ 4th & 8 at ARK 40, tiedClose callPunted · 60.1% before the snapGo for it60.1%34% to convertField goal60.0%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call60.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:59MIZ 4th & 1 at ARK 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.3%71% to convertField goal59.7%−0.654% to makePunt59.4%−0.9average punt
- Q2 7:24MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snapGo for it58.0%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.5%average punt
- Q2 5:14ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 48, tiedClose callPunted · 43.6% before the snapGo for it43.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.0%−0.9average punt
- Q2 2:11MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snapGo for it57.1%−0.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.7%average punt
- Q2 1:46ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snapGo for it39.4%−2.022% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.4%average punt
- Q2 0:00MIZ 4th & 3 at ARK 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt60.4%−0.6average punt
- Q3 14:32MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snapGo for it55.7%−2.727% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.3%average punt
- Q3 7:09MIZ 4th & 1 at ARK 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.4%71% to convertField goal38.3%−4.156% to makePunt35.9%−6.5average punt
- Q3 3:06MIZ 4th & 6 at ARK 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snapGo for it38.4%−0.435% to convertField goalTheir call38.8%87% to makePunt26.4%−12.4average punt
- Q4 11:23ARK 4th & 3 at MIZ 45, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 34.8% before the snapGo for it35.1%52% to convertField goal30.5%−4.525% to makePuntTheir call32.5%−2.6average punt
- Q4 9:39MIZ 4th & 7 at ARK 17, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snapGo for it70.0%−1.535% to convertField goalTheir call71.5%80% to makePunt55.0%−16.5average punt
- Q4 5:26ARK 4th & 8 at MIZ 40, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.7%34% to convertField goal17.4%−1.334% to makePunt15.0%−3.6average punt
- Q4 0:50ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.7%22% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.9%−0.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 2:23MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.5%97% to makeGo for two63.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:42ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.2%97% to makeGo for two39.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:41ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.9%97% to makeGo for two55.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:45MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.5%97% to makeGo for two65.1%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 4:19ARK Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.6%97% to makeGo for two48.2%−2.445% to convert
- Q4 1:53MIZ Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick82.3%−0.597% to makeGo for twoTheir call82.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARKDrive 1DOWNS8 plays · 39 yds · 2:4035% → 36%
Q1 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+12
64.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 12 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
64.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 10 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
64.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 11 yds to the MIZ 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
64.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the MIZ 31 Rashod Dubinion fumbled, recovered by ARK Dylan Hasz D. Hasz return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 29 yds · 2:3165% → 64%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
64.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 14 yds to the ARK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3FUMBLE7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2836% → 36%
MIZDrive 4TD11 plays · 40 yds · 4:2465% → 69%
Q1 2:32
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+5
64.8%
COOK, Brady pass to the right incomplete intended for WEASE, Theo thrown to the ARK0, clock 02:32. PENALTY ARK Offsides on JACKSON, Landon enforced 5 yards from the ARK14 to the ARK9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
64.8%
COOK, Brady pass up the middle incomplete intended for WEASE, Theo thrown to the ARK0, clock 02:27. PENALTY ARK Offsides on JACKSON, Landon declined ARK Pass Interference on STEWART, Kee'yon enforced 7 yards to the ARK2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD17 plays · 80 yds · 7:3633% → 41%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
67.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 6 yds to the ARK 26Similar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
67.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 9 yds to the ARK 40Similar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
66.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 6 yds to the MIZ 38Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+12
66.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 12 yds to the MIZ 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
66.2%
Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the MIZ 25 Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Luke Hasz) to the MIZ 35Similar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 14
OPP 35
+12
66.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 12 yds to the MIZ 23Similar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
66.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 11 yds to the MIZ 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
66.2%
HILL, Rodney rush up the middle for a gain of 9 yards to the MIZZOU0, TOUCHDOWN ARK, score nullified by penalty, clock 10:31 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY ARK Holding on BRAUN, Joshua enforced 10 yards from the MIZZOU9 to the MIZZOU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+11
66.5%
Missouri Penalty, Defensive Holding (Chuck Hicks) to the MIZ 2Similar
Q2 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0563% → 61%
ARKDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0242% → 41%
Q2 5:55
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+5
59.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 5 yds to the ARK 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 3:0063% → 61%
ARKDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:2041% → 39%
Q2 1:54
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-9
57.6%
Taylen Green sacked by Eddie Kelly Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the ARK 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10DOWNS7 plays · 12 yds · 1:3562% → 60%
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 47
-6
60.3%
Brady Cook sacked by Brad Spence for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1662% → 60%
ARKDrive 12TD6 plays · 50 yds · 0:0045% → 61%
Q3 11:41
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
39.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 12 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13FG18 plays · 57 yds · 7:4845% → 47%
Q3 8:52
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+15
45.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 15 yds to the ARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14FUMBLE1 play · 1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
40.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the ARK 34 Ja'Quinden Jackson fumbled, recovered by MIZ Corey Flagg Jr. C. Flagg Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15TD9 plays · 34 yds · 3:5752% → 74%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
51.4%
CARROLL, Marcus rush to the right for a gain of 20 yards to the ARK0, TOUCHDOWN MIZZOU, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:30 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MIZZOU Holding on MEMBOU, Armand enforced 10 yards from the ARK20 to the ARK30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 19
OPP 29
+18
48.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 18 yds to the ARK 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 2:1132% → 35%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+13
67.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 13 yds to the ARK 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17FG5 plays · 73 yds · 1:3370% → 84%
ARKDrive 18TD12 plays · 80 yds · 5:0625% → 69%
Q4 8:53
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+12
76.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 12 yds to the ARK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+7
70.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ja'Quinden Jackson for 7 yds to the MIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 8
OPP 40
+25
76.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 25 yds to the MIZ 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1648% → 96%
Q4 3:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
44.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 11 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
49.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 18 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+10
55.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 10 yds to the ARK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
96.1%
Brady Cook run for 30 yds for a TD (Brady Cook pass to Luther Burden III for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20END OF GAME10 plays · 41 yds · 1:449% → 11%
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
91.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 6 yds to the ARK 33Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-8
91.2%
Arkansas Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Intentional Grounding on GREEN, Taylen enforced resulting in a (-8 Yards) to the ARK 26Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 12
OWN 25
+18
92.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 18 yds to the ARK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+25
91.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 25 yds to the MIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:19
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 9 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
-38.4
TD · Q4 1:53
Brady Cook run for 30 yds for a TD (Brady Cook pass to Luther Burden III for Two-Point Conversion)
+33.8
TD · Q4 13:45
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)
+23