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MSST

Mississippi State 14 at Ole Miss 26

MISS
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2024 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:19 · Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 4 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+30.6Home team on offense+5.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:54: Kevin Coleman Jr. 34 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Kyle Ferrie Kick) — MSST win probability +0.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:00: Michael Van Buren Jr. 6 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick) — MSST win probability +1.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:40: Ulysses Bentley IV 89 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick) — MISS win probability +2.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:48: Caden Davis 43 Yd Field Goal — MISS win probability +1.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:56: Caden Prieskorn 19 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MISS win probability +4.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MSST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:43MISS 4th & 9 at MSST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:41MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 28, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:54MSST 4th & 7 at MISS 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:52MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:16MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:49MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 13, down 4
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:55MSST 4th & 19 at MISS 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:19MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:33MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 47, up 3
    Close callPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:58MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:19MISS 4th & 2 at MSST 40, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.8%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%
    34% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:54MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 33, up 3
    Close callPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:27MISS 4th & 16 at MSST 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:35MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:31MISS 4th & 21 at MISS 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:48MISS 4th & 12 at MSST 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−5.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:05MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.0%−1.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:48MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−2.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:46MSST 4th & 2 at MISS 2, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−4.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:22MISS 4th & 1 at MSST 45, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:54MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:16MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:40MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:56MISS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1INT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:274% → 4%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
96.1%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
96.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q1 14:38
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
96.0%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Luke Work) to the MSST 35Similar
Q1 14:29
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-10
96.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass intercepted Chris Paul Jr. return for 10 yds to the MSST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:4296% → 96%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
96.0%
Micah Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+9
96.0%
Micah Davis run for 9 yds to the MSST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
95.9%
Micah Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-1
95.8%
Micah Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 22Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
95.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dae'Quan Wright, broken up by Hunter WashingtonSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
95.7%
Caden Davis 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:294% → 6%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Seydou TraoreSimilar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for 3 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
95.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+11
95.6%
Nick Barr-Mira pass complete to Justin Ball for 11 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
95.3%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
95.2%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+19
95.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 19 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
95.0%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MISS 35Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+1
94.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 1 yd to the MISS 34Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
94.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+34
94.5%
Kevin Coleman Jr. 34 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Kyle Ferrie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:3295% → 94%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.6%
Antwane Wells Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 20Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
94.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+21
94.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 21 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
94.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
94.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 1
50
+2
94.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
94.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+7
94.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 7 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
94.0%
Micah Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+20
93.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 20 yds to the MSST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
93.7%
Micah Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 11Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+6
93.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MSST 5Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
93.9%
JJ Pegues 5 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+2
94.0%
Mississippi State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Isaac Smith) to the MSST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 0
OPP 1
-5
94.2%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Micah Pettus) to the MSST 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:106% → 9%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Johnnie Daniels for 4 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
93.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 27Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
93.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 16 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+42
93.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 42 yds to the MISS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
92.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 9 yds Seydou Traore fumbled, forced by John Saunders Jr., recovered by MSST Jordan MosleySimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+6
91.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. 6 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0292% → 91%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 5 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q2 14:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
91.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the MISS 31Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
91.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q2 13:52
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+10
91.2%
Fraser Masin punt for 56 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 10 yds to the MSST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:289% → 9%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
91.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 1 yd to the MSST 24 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Zxavian Harris) to the MSST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
90.7%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-2
90.5%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 39Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
90.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
90.6%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 55 yds, downed at the MISS 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2191% → 90%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
90.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 8 yds to the MISS 14Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 2
OWN 14
0
90.4%
Domonique Thomas run for no gain to the MISS 14Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 2
OWN 14
-1
90.0%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Zakari Tillman for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 13Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
89.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 56 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for no gain to the MSST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:4611% → 11%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+36
89.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 36 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
88.5%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MISS 31Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
88.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan Mosley, broken up by Trey AmosSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-11
88.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Chris Paul Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the MISS 42Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 19
OPP 42
0
88.8%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
1 play · 89 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+89
91.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV 89 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:149% → 9%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Mario CraverSimilar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
91.4%
Davon Booth run for 11 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
91.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 8 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
90.5%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
90.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
90.4%
Johnnie Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 48Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+1
90.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 1 yd to the MSST 49Similar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+28
91.0%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 8 Mississippi State Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Xavier Gayten) to the MISS 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:4190% → 90%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
90.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 17 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
90.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
90.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Cayden Lee, broken up by Isaac SmithSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+5
89.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the MISS 47Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
89.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:319% → 9%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
90.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kelly Akharaiyi, broken up by Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
90.8%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 13Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+8
90.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 8 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 2
OWN 21
-5
90.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MSST 16Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
90.9%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14MISSED FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 1:5289% → 89%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
88.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+8
89.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
89.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
89.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-1
89.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 40Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+4
88.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 4 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
89.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 9 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 1
OPP 27
-10
89.5%
Dart, Jaxson pass complete to Lee, Cayden for 9 yards to the MSST18, PENALTY MISS holding (Evans, Paris) 10 yards to the MSST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+54
89.1%
Caden Davis 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0387% → 87%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan Watkins, broken up by Brice PollockSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
87.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 5 yds to the MISS 33Similar
Q3 13:54
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+48
86.9%
Fraser Masin punt for 48 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:0413% → 14%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
86.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 13 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
86.2%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 30Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
86.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass intercepted Trey Washington return for no gain to the MISS 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:0888% → 85%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
87.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+4
87.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
87.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the MSST 40Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-7
87.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 47Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 16
OPP 47
0
85.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 16
OPP 47
0
84.7%
Fraser Masin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4715% → 14%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
85.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
85.2%
Johnnie Daniels run for 6 yds to the MSST 16Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
85.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Mario Craver, broken up by Jadon CanadySimilar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
86.1%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 40 yds, downed at the MISS 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:5687% → 83%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
86.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
86.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+2
86.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
86.6%
Micah Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 43Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-3
86.4%
Micah Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 46Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-11
84.9%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Zakari Tillman for a loss of 11 yards to the MISS 43Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 21
OWN 43
+2
82.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 35 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 2 yds to the MSST 24 Kevin Coleman Jr. fumbled, recovered by MISS Suntarine PerkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3986% → 87%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
86.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 26Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
0
86.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
84.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.Similar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
86.7%
Caden Davis 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 19 yds · 5:5614% → 16%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.7%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
85.2%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
84.9%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
85.1%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
83.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 9 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
81.7%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 45Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
81.9%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
81.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by JJ Pegues and Walter Nolen for a loss of 8 yards to the MSST 39Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+9
83.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 9 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-4
82.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Walter Nolen for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 44Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
83.9%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 43 yds , Micah Davis returns for no gain to the MISS 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 4:4387% → 95%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
87.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 17 yds to the MISS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
87.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the MISS 35Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
87.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the MISS 35Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+11
86.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 11 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
89.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
89.3%
Thomas, Domonique rush for 3 yards to the MSST39, PENALTY MISS holding (James, Jeremy) 10 yards to the MISS48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+12
89.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
90.2%
Domonique Thomas run for 2 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+14
90.1%
Dart, Jaxson pass incomplete to Lee, Cayden, PENALTY MSST pass interference (Ellington, Corey) 14 yards to the MSST24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISS.Similar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
90.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
90.8%
Domonique Thomas run for 5 yds to the MSST 19Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
95.4%
Caden Prieskorn 19 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:046% → 6%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 10 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr., broken up by Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
94.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for no gain to the MSST 35Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+20
94.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 20 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+44
93.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 44 yds to the MISS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.8%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the MISS 1Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
92.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 2Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 0
OPP 2
-5
92.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Marlon Martinez) to the MISS 7Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
93.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 5 yds to the MISS 2Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
94.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr., broken up by Trey WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24END OF GAME
17 plays · 54 yds · 5:1996% → 99%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
95.8%
Domonique Thomas run for 1 yd to the MISS 3Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+10
95.7%
Domonique Thomas run for 10 yds to the MISS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
95.8%
Domonique Thomas run for 1 yd to the MISS 14Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+3
96.3%
Domonique Thomas run for 3 yds to the MISS 17Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+12
96.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 12 yds to the MISS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
97.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the MISS 33Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+3
98.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the MISS 36Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+10
98.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 10 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the MISS 46Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
98.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the MISS 46Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+9
98.3%
Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
98.6%
JJ Pegues run for 1 yd to the MSST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:56
Caden Prieskorn 19 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+4.6
TD · Q2 8:40
Ulysses Bentley IV 89 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)
+2.3
FG · Q3 5:48
Caden Davis 43 Yd Field Goal
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com