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AUB

Auburn 14 at Alabama 28

ALA
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:41 · Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+21.7Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:18: Jalen Milroe run for 19 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +3.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:44: Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +6.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:13: Justice Haynes run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +5.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:54: Jalen Milroe run for 17 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:31: Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 29 yds for a TD (J. Hunter Run For Two-point Conversion) — AUB win probability +7.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:25AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54AUB 4th & 9 at ALA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:35ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:41AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53AUB 4th & 4 at ALA 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    23.4%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:27AUB 4th & 15 at ALA 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:27AUB 4th & 7 at ALA 7, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−3.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:37AUB 4th & 17 at AUB 18, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:57ALA 4th & 9 at AUB 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:21ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AUB made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 3:18ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:44ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:13ALA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:54ALA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:31AUB Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2225% → 25%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
75.4%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
75.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 27Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
75.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+8
75.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 39 yds , Ryan Williams returns for 8 yds to the ALA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:4575% → 75%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
75.2%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-3
75.2%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 44Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+8
74.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 8 yds to the AUB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
75.1%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the AUB 46Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
75.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+19
74.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 19 yds Ryan Williams fumbled, forced by Kaleb Harris, recovered by AUB Eugene AsanteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:2425% → 26%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
74.6%
Payton Thorne run for 10 yds to the AUB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
74.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 19 yds to the ALA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
74.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the ALA 42Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
73.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+20
73.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 20 yds to the ALA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
73.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 1 yd to the ALA 21Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
73.1%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the ALA 21Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
73.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Rivaldo FairweatherSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+39
73.6%
Ian Vachon 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:0974% → 73%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+20
73.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 20 yds to the ALA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
74.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
73.8%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the ALA 41Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+1
73.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the ALA 42 Jalen Milroe fumbled, forced by Keldric Faulk, recovered by ALA Parker BrailsfordSimilar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
73.2%
James Burnip punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Malcolm Simmons at the AUB 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4927% → 26%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
73.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Cam ColemanSimilar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+2
73.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 2 yds to the AUB 11Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
73.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Malcolm Simmons, broken up by Malachi MooreSimilar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 8
OWN 11
0
73.7%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:1374% → 77%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
73.9%
Jam Miller run for 14 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
73.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 5 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+3
74.1%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+11
73.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 11 yds to the AUB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
77.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 19 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:1124% → 25%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
76.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 21 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
75.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 9 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+5
74.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
74.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 15 yds to the ALA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
74.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 7 yds to the ALA 18Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-5
74.1%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Dillon Wade) to the ALA 23Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
74.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Malcolm SimmonsSimilar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+4
74.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 4 yds to the ALA 19Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 4
OPP 19
0
75.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8INT
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:2376% → 77%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
76.2%
Justice Haynes run for 6 yds to the ALA 25Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-1
76.4%
Justice Haynes run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 24Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+21
75.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 21 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
77.2%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
76.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jam MillerSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+23
76.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 23 yds to the AUB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
77.6%
Ryan Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the AUB 37Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+2
77.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 13
OPP 35
0
76.6%
Jalen Milroe pass intercepted Caleb Wooden return for no gain to the AUB 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 2:4324% → 26%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
76.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 11Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+5
76.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the AUB 16Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+7
76.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 7 yds to the AUB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
76.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 18 yds to the AUB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+45
75.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 31 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Malachi Moore) to the ALA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
73.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
73.5%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Bradyn Joiner) to the ALA 19Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 15
OPP 19
0
74.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 15
OPP 19
0
76.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jarquez Hunter, broken up by Malachi MooreSimilar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+37
74.2%
Ian Vachon 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3074% → 83%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
74.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 10 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
74.5%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
74.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 10 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
75.4%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+20
75.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 20 yds to the AUB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
76.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to CJ Dippre, broken up by Jerrin ThompsonSimilar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
75.9%
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+15
74.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 15 yds to the AUB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
75.3%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the AUB 6Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
75.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the AUB 1Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4517% → 16%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
82.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
82.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Luke Deal for 3 yds to the AUB 20Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
83.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
83.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ryan Williams at the ALA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
82.8%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 34 Jalen Milroe fumbled, forced by Jalen McLeod, recovered by AUB Philip Blidi , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13FG
13 plays · 27 yds · 1:0820% → 21%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
80.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 36Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+18
81.5%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Tim Smith) to the ALA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
79.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+14
79.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 14 yds to the ALA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
79.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 3Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.4%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the ALA 1Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
81.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 2Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 0
OPP 2
-5
81.6%
Auburn Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ALA 7Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
79.4%
Ian Vachon 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
82.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3481% → 89%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
80.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 24 yds to the ALA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
82.4%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
82.6%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
82.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 14 yds to the AUB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
82.9%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the AUB 24Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+14
82.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 14 yds to the AUB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
82.9%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the AUB 6Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
83.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the AUB 2Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.9%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:2413% → 12%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.4%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Izavion Miller) to the AUB 20Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-6
87.6%
Payton Thorne sacked by Tim Keenan III for a loss of 6 yards to the AUB 14Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+4
88.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 4 yds to the AUB 18Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
88.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ryan Williams at the ALA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:3090% → 97%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
89.8%
Jam Miller run for 7 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+3
90.5%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
50
+26
90.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 26 yds to the AUB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
90.9%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the AUB 20Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
91.1%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the AUB 17Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+17
96.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 17 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 4:234% → 10%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
96.5%
Auburn Penalty, Personal Foul (Micah Riley) to the AUB 13Similar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
96.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Malcolm SimmonsSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+15
96.5%
Alabama Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Malachi Moore) to the AUB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
96.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 3 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+7
96.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 7 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
96.5%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-3
96.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 39Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+21
96.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 21 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
96.8%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+2
96.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the ALA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
96.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
89.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 29 yds for a TD (J. Hunter Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FUMBLE
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:2594% → 95%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
93.5%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
94.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 3 yds to the ALA 19Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
93.9%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
94.2%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 17Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 14
OWN 17
+7
94.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 7 yds to the ALA 24Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+10
94.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 10 yds to the ALA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
94.8%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 36Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+6
95.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the ALA 42Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+7
95.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 7 yds to the ALA 49 Jalen Milroe fumbled, forced by Jalen McLeod, recovered by AUB Keldric FaulkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20INT
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:547% → 7%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
93.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+17
93.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 17 yds to the ALA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
93.2%
Jarquez Hunter pass intercepted Bray Hubbard return for 1 yd to the ALA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21PUNT
18 plays · 54 yds · 7:4595% → 98%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
95.3%
Alabama Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Zabien Brown) to the ALA 3Similar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+4
95.2%
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the ALA 7Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-4
95.4%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 3Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+14
95.5%
Milroe, Jalen pass incomplete to Bernard, Germie, PENALTY AUB pass interference (Scott, Keionte) 14 yards to the ALA17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.Similar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
96.0%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the ALA 20Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+1
96.1%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 21Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+10
96.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 10 yds to the ALA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
96.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 12 yds to the ALA 43 Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Germie Bernard) to the ALA 33Similar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 8
OWN 33
+10
96.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 10 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
96.9%
Jam Miller run for 8 yds to the AUB 49Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+1
97.0%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the AUB 48Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+6
97.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the AUB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
97.6%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 43Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
97.7%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the AUB 43Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+2
97.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 2 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
97.9%
James Burnip punt for 38 yds, downed at the AUB 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:111% → 1%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+11
98.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 11 yds to the AUB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
98.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Rivaldo Fairweather, broken up by Domani JacksonSimilar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+8
98.6%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+7
98.7%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the AUB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
98.6%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Zabien Brown return for 2 yds to the ALA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0298% → 99%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
98.3%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
98.6%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
98.6%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+3
98.7%
James Burnip punt for 39 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for 3 yds to the AUB 17 Malcolm Simmons fumbled, recovered by AUB Malcolm SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:131% → 2%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
98.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 19 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
98.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 21 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
98.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 15 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 25 yds to the ALA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:31
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 29 yds for a TD (J. Hunter Run For Two-point Conversion)
-7.4
TD · Q2 2:44
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q3 11:13
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com