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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:08 · Joe Bowman punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:22: Dylan Sampson run for 14 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:33: Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 9 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:33: Timeout Tennessee, clock 07:33 — UTEP win probability +0.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:19: Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ethan Davis for 1 yd for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:08: Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 18 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UTEP made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
- Q1 14:08UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 12:39TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 48, tiedClose callPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:05TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q1 3:57UTEP 4th & 9 at TENN 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−<0.132% to convertField goal2.3%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q1 2:46TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.2%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
- Q1 1:22UTEP 4th & 12 at TENN 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.123% to convertField goalTheir call2.8%51% to makePunt2.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:11UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 4:21TENN 4th & 13 at UTEP 48, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.0%−0.221% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q2 2:40UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 6, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q2 1:01UTEP 4th & 8 at TENN 40, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%34% to convertField goal1.4%−<0.134% to makePunt1.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:58UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 25, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 9:38TENN 4th & 8 at midfield, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 8:13UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 9, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 8:13UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 9, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 3:01UTEP 4th & 22 at TENN 35, down 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.18% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%45% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:41UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 44, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:39UTEP 4th & 2 at TENN 49, down 56Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:02TENN 4th & 10 at UTEP 46, up 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.123% to makePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q2 13:22TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:33TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:19TENN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:08TENN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:32TENN Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:09TENN Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:30TENN Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:24TENN Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTEPDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:461% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Q1 13:19
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+2
99.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 2 yds to the TENN 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3INT4 plays · 39 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+27
99.0%
Trey Goodman pass complete to Skyler Locklear for 27 yds to the TENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2399% → 99%
Q1 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+12
98.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 12 yds to the TENN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT15 plays · 26 yds · 5:591% → 2%
Q1 9:24
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+5
98.8%
PENALTY TENN Offside (Herring,Caleb) 5 yards from UTEP27 to UTEP32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+3
98.7%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Marcus Vinson for 3 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+6
98.7%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 6 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
98.4%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Goodman,Trey pass complete short left to Vinson,Marcus caught at TENN27, for 19 yards to the TENN27 (Charles,Christian), out of bounds PENALTY UTEP Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Henry,Azizi) 5 yards from TENN46 to UTEP49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
98.3%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Jevon Jackson for no gain to the TENN 49Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+5
98.3%
PENALTY TENN Offside (Norman-Lott,Omarr) 5 yards from TENN49 to TENN44. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0598% → 98%
UTEPDrive 7MISSED FG5 plays · 12 yds · 1:162% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD10 plays · 68 yds · 2:2898% → 98%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
97.7%
Nico Iamaleava run for a loss of 4 yards to the TENN 28 Nico Iamaleava fumbled, recovered by UTEP Nico IamaleavaSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+13
97.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 13 yds to the TENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
97.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 10 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+10
97.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 10 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
97.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 12 yds to the UTEP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9FUMBLE9 plays · 11 yds · 3:512% → 3%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.9%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Emari White for 6 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
97.7%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Emari White for 3 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+6
97.4%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 6 yds to the UTEP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
97.2%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 12 yds Trey Goodman fumbled, recovered by UTEP Dominic BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD6 plays · 36 yds · 1:2998% → 99%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+25
97.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Mike Matthews for 25 yds to the UTEP 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 4
OPP 5
-15
97.7%
(08:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Iamaleava,Nico pass complete short right to Matthews,Mike caught at UTEP00, for 5 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 08:24 PENALTY TENN Pass Interference (Staes,Holden) 15 yards from UTEP05 to UTEP20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
98.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 9 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:112% → 2%
Q2 6:41
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
98.1%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Emari White for 5 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:4599% → 98%
Q2 5:34
2ND & 1
OPP 36
-15
98.6%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Iamaleava,Nico pass complete short left to McCoy,Bru caught at UTEP35, for 6 yards to the UTEP30 (Content,Justin), out of bounds PENALTY TENN Pass Interference (White,Squirrel) 15 yards from UTEP36 to TENN49. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:332% → 2%
Q2 2:40
4TH & 6
OWN 6
+18
98.0%
Joe Bowman punt for 31 yds , Boo Carter returns for 18 yds to the UTEP 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD3 plays · 19 yds · 0:0498% → 99%
UTEPDrive 15DOWNS10 plays · 29 yds · 1:061% → 1%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.0%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Emari White for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 24Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+34
99.1%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 34 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 8
OPP 40
-6
99.0%
JP Pickles sacked by James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the TENN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16TD6 plays · 54 yds · 0:4899% → 100%
Q2 0:39
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+18
99.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Holden Staes for 18 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
99.3%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Nate Dyman for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 30Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+12
99.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Holden Staes for 12 yds to the UTEP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 18 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18TD6 plays · 67 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
UTEPDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q3 11:58
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Adam Jacklin punt for 32 yds , Boo Carter returns for 5 yds to the TENN 48 Boo Carter fumbled, recovered by UTEP Boo CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q3 11:24
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-10
99.8%
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Sampson,Dylan rush left for 36 yards gain to the UTEP09 (Russell,Lantz; Duhon,Kyran) PENALTY TENN Holding (Staes,Holden) 10 yards from UTEP45 to TENN45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+6
99.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 6 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-1
99.8%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Maurice Westmoreland for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q3 8:13
4TH & 5
OWN 9
+38
99.9%
Adam Jacklin punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 7 , Boo Carter returns for 38 yds to the UTEP 47 UTEP Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Maurice Westmoreland) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 5
OWN 9
+38
99.9%
Adam Jacklin punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 3 , Boo Carter returns for 38 yds to the UTEP 47 UTEP Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Maurice Westmoreland) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22TD2 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23MISSED FG14 plays · 40 yds · 5:020% → 0%
Q3 7:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
99.9%
JP Pickles pass complete to Trey Goodman for 11 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+19
99.9%
JP Pickles pass complete to Trey Goodman for 19 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 12
OPP 25
-1
99.9%
JP Pickles pass complete to Kenny Odom for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 26Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 13
OPP 26
-9
99.9%
JP Pickles sacked by James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the TENN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24TD7 plays · 65 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
UTEPDrive 25DOWNS8 plays · 19 yds · 2:450% → 0%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
100.0%
JP Pickles pass complete to Kenny Odom for 7 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26TD14 plays · 44 yds · 5:13100% → 100%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
(11:19) Shotgun Moore,Gaston pass incomplete short left to Nimrod,Chas thrown to UTEP00 QB hurried by Duhon,Kyran PENALTY TENN Ineligible Downfield on Pass offsetting UTEP Roughing The Passer offsetting. NO PLAY. The previous play is under automatic review - "Targeting". PLAY STANDS.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 27INT9 plays · 36 yds · 3:460% → 0%
TENNDrive 28PUNT10 plays · 48 yds · 3:10100% → 100%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
100.0%
Navy Shuler pass complete to Braylon Staley for 10 yds to the TENN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 29END OF GAME6 plays · 7 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
100.0%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Pickles,JP pass complete short left to Davis Jr.,Wondame caught at UTEP05, for 5 yards to the UTEP06 (Farooq,Edrees), out of bounds PENALTY UTEP Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Collins,Martavious). NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+7
100.0%
JP Pickles pass complete to Wondame Davis Jr. for 7 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+5
100.0%
PENALTY TENN Offside (Slaughter,John) 5 yards from UTEP08 to UTEP13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:19
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ethan Davis for 1 yd for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 7:33
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 9 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q2 13:22
Dylan Sampson run for 14 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+0.6