2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadWOF aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreWOF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · (00:05) Kneel down by Wofford at WOF21 for loss of 4 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:02: LaNorris Sellers run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Herrera KICK) — SC win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:48: Amari Odom pass complete to Dylan Djete for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — WOF win probability +1.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: Defense has -5 timeouts left).
- TD · Q2 0:20: LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Maurice Brown II for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Herrera KICK) — SC win probability +1.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:31: LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 26 yds for a TD (Alex Herrera KICK) — SC win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:31: Timeout South Carolina, clock 11:31 — WOF win probability +0.8 pts (now 2%) (top driver: WOF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WOF made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 12:34WOF 4th & 7 at SC 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call1.2%89% to makePunt0.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 10:35WOF 4th & 13 at SC 42, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.121% to convertField goal1.3%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 14:14WOF 4th & 16 at WOF 35, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q2 9:07WOF 4th & 2 at SC 43, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.7%57% to convertField goal2.6%−0.228% to makePunt2.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:57WOF 4th & 12 at SC 41, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.7%−<0.124% to convertField goal2.7%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q2 6:54SC 4th & 7 at SC 5, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%average punt
- Q3 8:23WOF 4th & 12 at WOF 37, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q3 1:51WOF 4th & 11 at WOF 24, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 13:29WOF 4th & 6 at SC 10, down 26Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%88% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 8:36WOF 4th & 3 at SC 30, down 30Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%52% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%−<0.156% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:08WOF 4th & 9 at WOF 38, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 8 of 8WOF made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 1:48SC Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:02SC Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:48WOF Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick5.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call5.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:20SC Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:31SC Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:00SC Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:27SC Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:04SC Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:09SC Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWOFDrive 1FG8 plays · 66 yds · 2:141% → 1%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+63
99.3%
Amari Odom pass complete to Kyle Watkins for 63 yds to the SC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-1
99.1%
Amari Odom sacked by Dylan Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the SC 9 Amari Odom fumbled, recovered by WOF Amari Odom , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2INT3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4999% → 99%
WOFDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:491% → 1%
Q1 10:35
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
99.0%
Sam Spence punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalon Kilgore at the SC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4TD20 plays · 90 yds · 8:4199% → 98%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
99.0%
(10:31) Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC15 (Smokes,Marion) PENALTY USC Holding (Lee,Vershon) 5 yards from USC10 to USC05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+6
98.9%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Mazeo Bennett Jr. for 6 yds to the SC 11Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+4
98.9%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 4 yds to the SC 15Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+6
98.8%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Luke Doty for 6 yds to the SC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+16
98.6%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Payton Mangrum for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
50
-5
98.6%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass complete short left to Campbell,Dalevon caught at WOF40, for 50 yards to the WOF00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:21 PENALTY USC Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Lee,Vershon) 5 yards from WOF50 to USC45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+7
98.5%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 7 yds to the WOF 44Similar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
98.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Luke Doty for 6 yds to the WOF 27Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+5
98.1%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 5 yds to the WOF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 2:282% → 2%
Q1 0:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
98.1%
(01:08) Shotgun Odom,Amari pass intercepted by Fortune,O'Donnell at WOF47 Fortune,O'Donnell return 34 yards to the WOF13 (Scott,Isaiah) PENALTY USC Roughing The Passer (Thomas Jr.,Bryan) 15 yards from WOF26 to WOF41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-11
97.8%
Amari Odom sacked by Kyle Kennard for a loss of 11 yards to the WOF 35Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
97.9%
Sam Spence punt for 35 yds , Juju McDowell returns for no gain to the SC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6TD7 plays · 71 yds · 1:5598% → 99%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+58
97.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 58 yds to the WOF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 7PUNT13 plays · 27 yds · 3:512% → 2%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
98.0%
Amari Odom pass complete to Kyle Watkins for 17 yds to the WOF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+4
98.0%
Jon Schaffer pass complete to Kyle Parsons for 4 yds to the SC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 7
OPP 36
-5
98.0%
(08:04) Corriston,Bryce pass complete deep right to Scales,Jahaad caught at USC05, for 36 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 08:06 PENALTY WOF False Start (Anaya,Carlos) 5 yards from USC36 to USC41. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5798% → 98%
WOFDrive 9TD14 plays · 57 yds · 5:002% → 4%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
97.6%
J.T. Smith Jr. run for 5 yds to the SC 40 Wofford Penalty, Offensive Holding (Luke Moise) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 15
50
+29
97.8%
Amari Odom pass complete to Kyle Parsons for 29 yds to the SC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
97.4%
Amari Odom pass complete to Isaiah Scott for 16 yds to the SC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
97.4%
South Carolina Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Nick Emmanwori) to the SC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
97.7%
PENALTY WOF False Start (Hixon,Clayton) 5 yards from USC01 to USC06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.2%
Amari Odom pass complete to Dylan Djete for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10TD10 plays · 68 yds · 1:1596% → 97%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
95.9%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 7 yds to the WOF 48Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+6
95.6%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Mazeo Bennett Jr. for 6 yds to the WOF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
95.5%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Jalen Marshall for a loss of 7 yards to the WOF 49Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 17
OPP 49
+27
95.2%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 27 yds to the WOF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
95.6%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 21 yds to the WOF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.1%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Maurice Brown II for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Herrera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12TD11 plays · 82 yds · 3:1797% → 99%
Q3 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+11
97.3%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 11 yds to the SC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+14
97.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 14 yds to the WOF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-9
97.4%
LaNorris Sellers run for 1 yd to the WOF 32 South Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (Luke Doty) to the WOF 42Similar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 19
OPP 42
-1
97.3%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Raheim Sanders for a loss of 1 yard to the WOF 43Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+26
98.9%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 26 yds for a TD (Alex Herrera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 3:022% → 2%
Q3 9:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
97.9%
Amari Odom pass complete to Rickie Shaw II for 10 yds to the WOF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14TD13 plays · 70 yds · 5:1299% → 100%
Q3 7:35
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+17
98.9%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 17 yds to the SC 39Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
99.1%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 5 yds to the WOF 46Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+17
99.2%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 17 yds to the WOF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 13 yds for a TD (Alex Herrera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q3 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.8%
Amari Odom pass complete to Kyle Parsons for a loss of 1 yard to the WOF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 16FG8 plays · 34 yds · 3:150% → 1%
SCDrive 17TD8 plays · 70 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
WOFDrive 18MISSED FG8 plays · 45 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
99.9%
Amari Odom pass complete to Kyle Watkins for 23 yds to the WOF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
99.9%
(09:41) Odom,Amari pass incomplete short left to Watkins,Kyle thrown to USC33 PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Solomon,Jalewis) 15 yards from WOF48 to USC37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19TD6 plays · 70 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 5 yds to the SC 35Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+30
99.9%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Eriq Rice for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Wofford Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Anthonie Lattany) to the WOF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:470% → 0%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Amari Odom pass complete to Kyle Watkins for 6 yds to the WOF 19Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+18
100.0%
Amari Odom pass complete to Kyle Watkins for 18 yds to the WOF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Bryce Corriston pass complete to Ivory Aikens for no gain to the WOF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21TD11 plays · 85 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
Q4 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+25
100.0%
Bradley Dunn run for 10 yds to the SC 28 for a 1ST down Wofford Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (CJ Coombes) to the SC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
100.0%
Davis Beville pass complete to Bradley Dunn for 13 yds to the WOF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+12
100.0%
Bradley Dunn run for 12 yds to the WOF 23 Bradley Dunn fumbled, recovered by SC Eriq Rice for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
100.0%
Davis Beville sacked by Benny Radicia for a loss of 2 yards to the WOF 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:31
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 26 yds for a TD (Alex Herrera KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q2 1:48
Amari Odom pass complete to Dylan Djete for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-1.5
TD · Q2 0:20
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Maurice Brown II for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Herrera KICK)
+1.5