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MIZ

Missouri 39 at Mississippi State 20

MSST
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:24 · Luke Bauer punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Pregame prior−28.0Home team on offense+0.2Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:20: Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 11 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +4.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 9:58: Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 28 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK) — MIZ win probability +4.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:32: Marcus Carroll run for 19 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK) — MIZ win probability +8.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:31: Davon Booth run for 43 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +10.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:40: Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (M. Carroll Run For Two-point Conversion) — MIZ win probability +6.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:42MSST 4th & 8 at MIZ 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:24MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:37MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:24MIZ 4th & 18 at MIZ 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:50MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:50MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:19MSST 4th & 3 at MIZ 10, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:30MSST 4th & 8 at MIZ 8, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:46MIZ 4th & 1 at MSST 28, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%−2.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    79.6%−7.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:14MIZ 4th & 2 at MSST 18, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.6%−1.0
    79% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−7.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:17MIZ 4th & 10 at MSST 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−5.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:23MSST 4th & 3 at MIZ 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−0.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−6.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:34MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 30, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:58MIZ 4th & 3 at MSST 7, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 6:33MIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:49MIZ Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:20MSST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:58MIZ Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:32MIZ Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:31MSST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:40MIZ Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:1021% → 23%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
20.6%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 22Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+10
20.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 10 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+33
21.1%
Davon Booth run for 33 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
21.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 7 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+6
21.8%
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the MIZ 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
22.1%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MIZ 20Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
22.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
22.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
22.5%
Kyle Ferrie 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1878% → 77%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 4 yds to the MIZ 29Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
22.7%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the MIZ 30Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
23.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
23.5%
Luke Bauer punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4123% → 24%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
23.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 6 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
24.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 3 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-4
24.2%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 43Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
24.1%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:0775% → 74%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
24.6%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-2
24.7%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 7Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 12
OWN 7
-6
25.0%
Brady Cook sacked by Zakari Tillman for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 1Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 18
OWN 1
+8
25.8%
Luke Bauer punt for 39 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 8 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:4326% → 25%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
25.8%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+68
24.7%
Daylan Carnell 68 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Craig Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4324% → 23%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.6%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 26Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
23.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-10
23.4%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 39 yds , Daniel Blood returns for a loss of 10 yards to the MIZ 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5476% → 79%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds to the MIZ 31Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
24.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
24.3%
Jamal Roberts run for 14 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+45
24.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 45 yds to the MSST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
23.7%
Jamal Roberts run for 5 yds to the MSST 5Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
23.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the MSST 2Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.3%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2921% → 28%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
21.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 13 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
21.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
21.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 8 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
22.0%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
22.3%
Missouri Penalty, Personal Foul (Corey Flagg Jr.) to the MIZ 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
22.9%
Missouri Penalty, Personal Foul (Chuck Hicks) to the MIZ 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
22.9%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MIZ 11Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
27.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 11 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 5:1874% → 80%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
25.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 5 yds to the MIZ 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+14
25.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 14 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
25.1%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the MIZ 44Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-10
25.3%
Missouri Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marquis Johnson) to the MIZ 38Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+7
26.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 7 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+9
25.5%
Brady Cook run for 9 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
25.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 6 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+11
25.3%
Nate Noel run for 11 yds to the MSST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
24.9%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the MSST 24Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-4
25.0%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 28Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+28
20.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 28 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0821% → 21%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.2%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
21.5%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
21.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
21.1%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Daniel Blood at the MIZ 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 4:1279% → 89%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
21.3%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the MIZ 19Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+2
21.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the MIZ 21Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+38
21.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 38 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
19.9%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+8
19.9%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
19.8%
Brady Cook run for 8 yds to the MSST 23Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+4
19.6%
(05:04) NOEL, Nate rush up the middle for no gain to the MSU23 (MCCLENDON, Kai), clock 04:57. PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Substitution enforced 4 yards from the MSU23 to the MSU19 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
11.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 19 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12FG
18 plays · 67 yds · 4:0215% → 18%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
14.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 17 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
15.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Justin Ball for 13 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
15.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
15.6%
Johnnie Daniels run for 7 yds to the MIZ 38Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+4
15.5%
Johnnie Daniels run for 4 yds to the MIZ 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
15.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 17 yds to the MIZ 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
15.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIZ 15Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+4
15.6%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the MIZ 11Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 4
OPP 11
-10
15.2%
(01:36) BOOTH, Davon rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the MIZZOU9 (NEWSON, Triston;NORWOOD, Dreyden), clock 01:33. PENALTY MSU Holding on BALL, Justin enforced 10 yards from the MIZZOU11 to the MIZZOU21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 14
OPP 21
+11
14.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Justin Ball for 11 yds to the MIZ 10Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+7
14.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 7 yds to the MIZ 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
15.8%
(01:06) BOOTH, Davon rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the MIZZOU0, TOUCHDOWN MSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:05 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MSU Holding on JACKSON, Jacoby enforced 10 yards from the MIZZOU3 to the MIZZOU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+5
15.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 5 yds to the MIZ 8Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
15.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
16.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
18.3%
Kyle Ferrie 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.6%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the MIZ 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 8:4685% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
15.1%
Nate Noel run for 15 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
14.0%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the MIZ 43Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+47
13.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 57 yds Missouri Penalty, Illegal Block (Joshua Manning) to the MIZ 40Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
13.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 9 yds to the MIZ 49Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+4
12.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
12.3%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+4
12.0%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
11.9%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
10.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+2
10.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+2
11.6%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the MSST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
10.3%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the MSST 23Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+5
10.2%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the MSST 18Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
10.3%
Brady Cook run for no gain to the MSST 18Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+35
7.7%
Blake Craig 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:4310% → 21%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
10.3%
Davon Booth run for 22 yds to the MIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
21.2%
Davon Booth run for 43 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:0881% → 82%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
18.7%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the MIZ 25Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+13
18.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 13 yds to the MIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
16.9%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the MIZ 41Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
16.7%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+28
16.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 28 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
15.7%
Brady Cook run for no gain to the MSST 27Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
15.7%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
15.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
17.8%
Blake Craig 44 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:5117% → 17%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+49
17.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 49 yds to the MIZ 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
21.2%
Johnnie Daniels run for 4 yds to the MIZ 20Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
21.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+3
19.6%
Johnnie Daniels run for 3 yds to the MIZ 17Similar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 3
OPP 17
0
17.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 8:4383% → 98%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
16.7%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the MIZ 18Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+7
15.3%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the MIZ 25Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+2
15.5%
Jamal Roberts run for 2 yds to the MIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
14.9%
Jamal Roberts run for 3 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+1
14.8%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the MIZ 31Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+36
14.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Joshua Manning for 36 yds to the MSST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
11.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+16
10.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 16 yds to the MSST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
10.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the MSST 9Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
9.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 5 yds to the MSST 4Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+1
9.7%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd to the MSST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
8.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the MSST 2Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
8.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the MSST 1Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (M. Carroll Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:062% → 2%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
2.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Kevin Coleman Jr.) to the MSST 20Similar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-3
2.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Johnny Walker Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 17Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+13
2.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 13 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
2.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
2.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 1 yd to the MSST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20END OF GAME
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:0499% → 99%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
1.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 17 yds to the MSST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
1.1%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the MSST 12Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
1.0%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the MSST 12Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+5
0.9%
Jamal Roberts run for 5 yds to the MSST 7Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+5
0.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 5 yds to the MSST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.8%
(01:52) Kneel down by COOK, Brady at MSU1 (team loss of 2), clock 01:47. PENALTY MSU Personal Foul on WASHINGTON, Hunter enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the MSU2 to the MSU1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
0.8%
(01:30) Kneel down by COOK, Brady at MSU2 (team loss of 1), clock 01:27.Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
0.7%
(00:46) Kneel down by COOK, Brady at MSU3 (team loss of 1), clock 00:43.Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
0.7%
(00:24) Kneel down by COOK, Brady at MSU4 (team loss of 1), clock 00:21.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:31
Davon Booth run for 43 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q2 4:32
Marcus Carroll run for 19 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q4 5:40
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (M. Carroll Run For Two-point Conversion)
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com