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VAN

Vanderbilt 17 at LSU 24

LSU
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:33 · Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Pregame prior+21.7Home team on offense+1.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:51: Josh Williams run for 21 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:32: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 12 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:41: Damian Ramos 28 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:47: Diego Pavia run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +11.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:47: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 21 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST down — LSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:58LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:35VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:33LSU 4th & 3 at VAN 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    71.9%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:46VAN 4th & 5 at LSU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:05LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:29VAN 4th & 2 at LSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.1%−0.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:11VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.9%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:26VAN 4th & 4 at LSU 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.8%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−6.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:18LSU 4th & 5 at VAN 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:49VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:41LSU 4th & 10 at VAN 11, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−4.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:41VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 26, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:49VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:17LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:51LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:32LSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:47VAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4578% → 77%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
77.9%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+4
77.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 4 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 3
OWN 25
-5
77.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+1
77.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 1 yd to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 7
OWN 21
+41
77.4%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 41 yds , Martel Hight returns for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2TD
1 play · 63 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
76.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 63 yds for a TD LSU Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the LSU 0 (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 4:2077% → 77%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
76.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 10 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
76.5%
Caden Durham run for 6 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
76.3%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
75.8%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+30
75.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 30 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
75.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 3 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+14
75.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 14 yds to the VAN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
76.9%
Josh Williams run for 20 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4224% → 24%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
75.7%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 29Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
76.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+10
76.2%
Jesse Mirco punt for 54 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 10 yds to the LSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:5876% → 75%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
76.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
75.9%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+24
75.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 24 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
76.5%
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the VAN 42Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
76.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+7
76.3%
Caden Durham run for 7 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
76.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 16 yds to the VAN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
76.5%
Caden Durham run for 11 yds to the VAN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-6
76.5%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Yilanan Ouattara for a loss of 6 yards to the VAN 14Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+6
76.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 6 yds to the VAN 8Similar
Q1 1:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
76.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 5 yds to the VAN 3Similar
Q1 0:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
75.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:4226% → 28%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
74.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 1 yd to the VAN 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+8
74.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 8 yds to the VAN 12Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+36
73.7%
Diego Pavia run for 36 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
71.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
72.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+5
72.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 5 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
72.4%
Jesse Mirco punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2474% → 73%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
74.0%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
73.8%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
73.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
72.6%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 6:2029% → 32%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
71.2%
Nate Johnson run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
50
+9
70.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 9 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+3
69.6%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
69.4%
Moni Jones run for 3 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
67.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+7
68.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 7 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
66.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+2
66.3%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+1
66.7%
Eli Stowers run for 1 yd to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 4:29
4TH & 2
OPP 20
0
67.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:3172% → 81%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
71.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ka'Morreun Pimpton for 5 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-1
71.9%
Josh Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
70.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
71.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
71.1%
Josh Williams run for 8 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+14
71.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 14 yds to the VAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
72.5%
Josh Williams run for 8 yds to the VAN 37Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+16
72.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 16 yds to the VAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
81.0%
Josh Williams run for 21 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:3021% → 20%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
78.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 13 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
77.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 9 yds to the VAN 47Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
77.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-5
77.9%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Eli Stowers) to the VAN 42Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
79.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
80.2%
Jesse Mirco punt for 49 yds, downed at the LSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
79.3%
(00:03) Kneel down by TEAM at LSU8 (team loss of 1).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 6:3422% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
77.6%
AJ Newberry run for 6 yds to the VAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
77.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 2 yds to the VAN 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+7
77.8%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the VAN 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
77.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
76.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+18
76.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 18 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
74.9%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+7
74.9%
Nate Johnson run for 7 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-5
75.7%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Gunnar Hansen) to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+3
75.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+47
71.4%
Brock Taylor 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:4675% → 87%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
75.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
74.7%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the LSU 24Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+9
73.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
75.4%
Caden Durham run for 5 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+21
77.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 21 yds to the VAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
77.9%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the VAN 40Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+2
77.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 2 yds to the VAN 38Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+2
77.0%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the VAN 36Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+24
75.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 24 yds to the VAN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
87.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 12 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4314% → 12%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 27Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
86.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the VAN 28Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
87.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
88.0%
Jesse Mirco punt for 57 yds, downed at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15FG
15 plays · 74 yds · 6:0887% → 96%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
86.7%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+13
86.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 13 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
88.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 18 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
89.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 7 yds to the VAN 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+6
89.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 6 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
89.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 18 yds to the VAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
89.4%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VAN 26Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+6
89.4%
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the VAN 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
89.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+9
88.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 9 yds to the VAN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
89.4%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the VAN 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
89.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
91.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
95.6%
Damian Ramos 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:546% → 18%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.4%
Nate Johnson run for 3 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
94.2%
Diego Pavia sacked by Shone Washington and Bradyn Swinson for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 26Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
94.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+9
94.6%
Jesse Mirco run for 9 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
94.1%
AJ Newberry run for 10 yds to the VAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
94.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+39
94.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 39 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
92.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 9 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+6
92.9%
AJ Newberry run for 6 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.8%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17END OF GAME
15 plays · 66 yds · 5:4791% → 98%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
90.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 21 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
92.1%
Caden Durham run for 6 yds to the VAN 48Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
92.2%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the VAN 45Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
91.8%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the VAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
92.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 10 yds to the VAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
95.9%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the VAN 31Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+5
95.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 5 yds to the VAN 26Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+5
95.5%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Disconcerting Signals on TAYLOR, CJ enforced (CJ Taylor) to the VAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
95.8%
Josh Williams run for 8 yds to the VAN 13Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+6
95.8%
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the VAN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
96.7%
(01:14) [SG] Kneel down by TEAM at VANDY8 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
98.3%
[SG] Kneel down by TEAM at VANDY9 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:32
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 12 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+11.6
TD · Q4 5:47
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
-11.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:47
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 21 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST down
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com