Try the model
TA&M

Texas A&M 41 at Auburn 43

AUB
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:24 · Oscar Chapman punt for 31 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingOffense timeouts
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 128Home team on offense+6.9Garbage-time factor+2.8Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Time remaining−0.2Offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:57: Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for 73 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +20.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 4:01: Amari Daniels run for 8 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +44.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 0:05: Ian Vachon 29 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +38.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Jahdae Walker 12 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick) — TA&M win probability +19.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Jarquez Hunter 2 Yd Run (Ian Vachon Kick) — AUB win probability +36.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 6:47TA&M 4th & 7 at AUB 36, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.0%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 6:26TA&M 4th & 1 at AUB 11, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−2.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−9.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:07AUB 4th & 15 at AUB 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:14TA&M 4th & 16 at AUB 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    25.8%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 8:07AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 25, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:41AUB 4th & 10 at TA&M 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−9.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:11TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−2.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:06TA&M 4th & 5 at TA&M 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:47TA&M 4th & 10 at AUB 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−3.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−13.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:24AUB 4th & 21 at AUB 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−8.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:58TA&M 4th & 6 at AUB 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−2.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:02AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−1.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:58AUB 4th & 16 at AUB 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:38TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 45, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:41AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.8%−9.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:05AUB 4th & 11 at TA&M 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−17.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−33.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:22AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:05AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:09AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:13TA&M Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:25TA&M Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:57TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:27AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:01TA&M Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:3148% → 51%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
48.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 39Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
48.3%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
48.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
48.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 7
50
+3
48.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the TA&M 47Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+8
48.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the TA&M 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
49.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 6 yds to the TA&M 33Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+31
49.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 31 yds to the TA&M 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
49.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:3350% → 47%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.2%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
50.3%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 12 yds to the TA&M 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
50.4%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the TA&M 40Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
50.5%
Amari Daniels run for 9 yds to the TA&M 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
50.9%
Marcel Reed run for 9 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
51.0%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
51.4%
Terry Bussey run for 2 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
51.7%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+1
51.8%
Marcel Reed run for 1 yd to the AUB 36Similar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+53
52.7%
Randy Bond 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:3753% → 58%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
53.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 37Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+63
58.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 63 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4INT
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:5543% → 41%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.8%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
56.9%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
57.1%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 15 yds to the TA&M 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
57.2%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 41Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
57.7%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 42Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+10
58.3%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 10 yds to the AUB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
58.5%
Marcel Reed run for 8 yds to the AUB 40Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+1
58.5%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Amari Daniels for 1 yd to the AUB 39Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
58.6%
Amari Daniels run for 4 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
58.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 10 yds to the AUB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
59.1%
Marcel Reed pass intercepted Jerrin Thompson return for no gain to the AUB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:5863% → 76%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
62.5%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 13Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+2
63.1%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the AUB 15Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+12
63.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 12 yds to the AUB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
64.1%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AUB 22Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+3
64.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+60
64.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 60 yds to the TA&M 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
75.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 15 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 8:5526% → 29%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.5%
Auburn Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jay Crawford) to the TA&M 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
74.9%
Marcel Reed run for 1 yd to the TA&M 42Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-10
75.8%
(12:11) DANIELS, Amari rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the TAMU48 (ASANTE, Eugene), clock 12:07. PENALTY TAMU Holding on REED-ADAMS, Armaj enforced 10 yards from the TAMU42 to the TAMU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 19
OWN 32
+12
76.8%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for 12 yds to the TA&M 44Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+11
76.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for 11 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
76.5%
Marcel Reed run for 3 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-2
78.3%
Marcel Reed sacked by Philip Blidi for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 44Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+13
79.6%
Marcel Reed run for 13 yds to the AUB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
79.0%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Tre Watson for 11 yds to the AUB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
79.1%
Amari Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 22Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+6
79.4%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 6 yds to the AUB 16Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
80.3%
Marcel Reed run for 5 yds to the AUB 11Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+1
81.0%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the AUB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
81.2%
Jabre Barber run for 3 yds to the AUB 7Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
81.8%
Amari Daniels run for 6 yds to the AUB 1Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.8%
Terry Bussey run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:0474% → 76%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
73.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 9 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
75.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
75.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 34Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 13
OWN 34
-2
76.3%
Payton Thorne sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 32Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 15
OWN 32
0
76.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
75.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 18 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 4 yds · 0:4826% → 25%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
50
+8
73.7%
Marcel Reed run for 8 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+2
71.6%
Amari Daniels run for 2 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
71.8%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (Jahdae Walker) to the AUB 45Similar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 15
OPP 45
0
73.9%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
74.3%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 15
OPP 45
-1
75.0%
Marcel Reed sacked by Demarcus Riddick for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 46Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
75.3%
Tyler White punt for 45 yds, downed at the AUB 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9END OF HALF
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:3381% → 81%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
80.7%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 2Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+6
82.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 8Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+4
81.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 5:2823% → 38%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
76.8%
Amari Daniels run for 6 yds to the TA&M 30Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+6
76.2%
Marcel Reed run for 6 yds to the TA&M 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
76.9%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 37Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
77.5%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jabre Barber for 8 yds to the TA&M 45Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
76.9%
Amari Daniels run for 2 yds to the TA&M 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
77.6%
Marcel Reed pass complete to EJ Smith for 6 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+15
76.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 15 yds to the AUB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
76.7%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 13 yds to the AUB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
76.7%
Amari Daniels run for 5 yds to the AUB 14Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
62.2%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for 14 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1371% → 71%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
70.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
70.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 9 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 25Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 1
OWN 25
-2
71.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 46 yds , Terry Bussey returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12TD
1 play · 73 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
51.0%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for 73 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13MISSED FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:0755% → 56%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
54.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Robert Lewis for 17 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
57.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 15 yds to the TA&M 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
59.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 20 yds to the TA&M 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
60.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the TA&M 20Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-2
60.3%
Damari Alston run for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 22Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+5
58.8%
(05:51) THORNE, Payton pass deep to the left incomplete intended for COLEMAN, Cam thrown to the TAMU2, clock 05:49. PENALTY TAMU Offsides on HOWELL, Cashius enforced 5 yards from the TAMU22 to the TAMU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 5
OPP 17
-5
58.9%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Robert Lewis) to the TA&M 22Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
58.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
55.6%
Ian Vachon 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2849% → 46%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
51.5%
Amari Daniels run for 5 yds to the TA&M 27Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-3
50.2%
Marcel Reed sacked by Dorian Mausi Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the TA&M 24Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
52.5%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+13
54.1%
Tyler White punt for 44 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for 13 yds to the AUB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:3458% → 80%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+44
58.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 44 yds to the TA&M 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
60.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 10 yds to the TA&M 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the TA&M 1Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.0%
QB Keeper THORNE, Payton rush up the middle for no gain to the TAMU1 (REGIS, Albert), clock 02:38. PENALTY TAMU Offsides on KENNEDY, Rylan enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the TAMU1 to the TAMU0 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1928% → 25%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.7%
Marcel Reed run for 7 yds to the TA&M 32Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
69.6%
Amari Daniels run for 2 yds to the TA&M 34Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
72.7%
Amari Daniels run for 7 yds to the TA&M 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
72.1%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
73.0%
Terry Bussey run for 5 yds to the TA&M 46Similar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
72.1%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:06
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
75.1%
Tyler White punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Malcolm Simmons at the AUB 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3881% → 81%
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
81.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 11Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-4
81.2%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted BJ Mayes return for 4 yds to the AUB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2732% → 36%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
68.4%
Marcel Reed run for 1 yd to the AUB 14Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-1
71.5%
Amari Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 15Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
74.6%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
64.0%
Randy Bond 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:2069% → 66%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
69.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 22Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
68.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-8
67.0%
Payton Thorne sacked by Dalton Brooks for a loss of 8 yards to the AUB 14Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
66.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2139% → 35%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
61.3%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Tre Watson for 4 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
61.4%
Amari Daniels run for no gain to the AUB 41Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
62.3%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
65.0%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5173% → 73%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
72.9%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 37Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+3
70.6%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the AUB 40Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+4
70.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
72.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Terry Bussey at the TA&M 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:5732% → 80%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
68.2%
Marcel Reed run for 15 yds to the TA&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-13
66.8%
Texas A&M Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Marcel Reed) to the TA&M 22Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 23
OWN 22
+9
69.3%
Amari Daniels run for 9 yds to the TA&M 31Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+36
70.7%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jabre Barber for 36 yds to the AUB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
60.3%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Terry Bussey for 2 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+9
60.4%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Tre Watson for 9 yds to the AUB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
62.0%
Marcel Reed run for 11 yds to the AUB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
64.5%
Marcel Reed run for 3 yds to the AUB 8Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
20.5%
Amari Daniels run for 8 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:0137% → 32%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
37.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 23Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
36.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 24Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
33.8%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Cam Coleman) to the AUB 19Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
33.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
32.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Terry Bussey at the TA&M 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1579% → 80%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
21.1%
Marcel Reed run for a loss of 7 yards to the TA&M 34 Marcel Reed fumbled, recovered by TA&M Marcel Reed M. Reed return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+4
23.3%
Marcel Reed run for 4 yds to the TA&M 38Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+7
22.0%
Amari Daniels run for 7 yds to the TA&M 45Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
20.0%
Tyler White punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Malcolm Simmons at the AUB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25FG
21 plays · 74 yds · 2:2532% → 62%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
32.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 2 yds to the AUB 17Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+13
31.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 13 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
25.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 5 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-5
27.3%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Jeremiah Wright) to the AUB 30Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
25.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+7
23.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 7 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+23
27.5%
Payton Thorne run for 23 yds to the TA&M 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
36.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the TA&M 36Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
34.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+7
32.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 7 yds to the TA&M 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
38.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 11 yds to the TA&M 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
38.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 11 yds to the TA&M 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
37.8%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Dillon Wade) to the TA&M 12Similar
Q4 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
33.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 4 yds to the TA&M 8Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
37.2%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the TA&M 6Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
29.2%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 11Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
24.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
62.4%
Ian Vachon 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
41.1%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the AUB 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
41.1%
Amari Daniels run for 7 yds to the AUB 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
43.3%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 3 yds to the AUB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
41.1%
Amari Daniels run for 2 yds to the AUB 12Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
22.0%
Jahdae Walker 12 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 66%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
28.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 8 yds to the TA&M 17Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+6
28.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the TA&M 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
28.0%
(00:00) THORNE, Payton pass up the middle incomplete intended for COLEMAN, Cam thrown to the TAMU0. PENALTY TAMU Pass Interference on THOMAS, Jayvon enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the TAMU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
28.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the TA&M 2Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.6%
Jarquez Hunter 2 Yd Run (Ian Vachon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 28FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0066% → 72%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
65.6%
Payton Thorne run for 11 yds to the TA&M 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
65.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-15
65.6%
(00:00) THORNE, Payton pass short up the middle complete for 13 yards to LAMBERT-SMITH, KeAndre caught at the TAMU11 and advanced to the TAMU1 (THOMAS, Jayvon). PENALTY AUBURN Pass Interference on FAIRWEATHER, Rivaldo enforced 15 yards to the TAMU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 25
OPP 29
0
62.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 25
OPP 29
+6
71.7%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the TA&M 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 29FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0029% → 23%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
71.4%
(00:00) DANIELS, Amari rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the AUBURN18 (KEYS, Austin;HARRIS, Kaleb). PENALTY TAMU Holding on CALHOUN, Shane enforced 10 yards from the AUBURN25 to the AUBURN35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+14
77.2%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for 14 yds to the AUB 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
71.4%
Amari Daniels run for no gain to the AUB 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-3
76.7%
Marcel Reed run for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:01
Amari Daniels run for 8 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-44
FG · Q4 0:05
Ian Vachon 29 yd FG GOOD
+38.2
TD · OT 0:00
Jarquez Hunter 2 Yd Run (Ian Vachon Kick)
+36.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com