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Louisiana Tech 14 at Arkansas 35

ARK
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:32 · Devin Bale punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Pregame prior+37.7Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:49: Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 11 yds for a TD Louisiana Tech Penalty, Defensive Holding (Blake Thompson) declined (Matthew Shipley KICK) — ARK win probability +4.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:54: Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — ARK win probability +5.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:59: Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 2 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK) — LT win probability +7.1 pts (now 10%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:59: Timeout Arkansas, clock 03:59 — ARK win probability +4.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:58: Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 20 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK) — LT win probability +2.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 10LT made the numbers' call on 11 of 17
  1. Q1 12:31ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:14LT 4th & 6 at LT 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:26LT 4th & 3 at ARK 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:34LT 4th & 25 at ARK 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:28ARK 4th & 20 at ARK 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:44LT 4th & 10 at LT 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:32ARK 4th & 24 at ARK 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:51LT 4th & 6 at LT 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:43LT 4th & 5 at ARK 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%−0.2
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:18ARK 4th & 1 at LT 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    84.1%−1.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:40LT 4th & 8 at LT 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:53ARK 4th & 3 at LT 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−0.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    87.6%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:29LT 4th & 5 at LT 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:04ARK 4th & 15 at LT 38, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    92.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:39LT 4th & 10 at LT 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:58ARK 4th & 12 at LT 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 11:58ARK 4th & 12 at LT 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  18. Q3 10:00LT 4th & 1 at LT 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q3 8:03LT 4th & 16 at LT 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  20. Q3 0:00ARK 4th & 2 at LT 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−4.0
    average punt
  21. Q4 12:07LT 4th & 9 at LT 28, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 10:11LT 4th & 1 at ARK 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 10:11LT 4th & 1 at ARK 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
  24. Q4 9:12ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  25. Q4 1:22LT 4th & 2 at ARK 46, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  26. Q4 0:57LT 4th & 8 at ARK 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  27. Q4 0:57LT 4th & 8 at ARK 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 5:49ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:53ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:54ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:59LT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:14ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:58LT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:01ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0894% → 93%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
93.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 4Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+14
93.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 14 yds to the ARK 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
93.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 9 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 1
OWN 27
-2
93.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 25Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Luke HaszSimilar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
93.4%
Devin Bale punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:117% → 7%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
93.4%
Omiri Wiggins run for 7 yds to the LT 31Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+3
93.3%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 3 yds to the LT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
93.1%
Evan Bullock run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 33Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
93.0%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Solo LewisSimilar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+5
93.0%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 5 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+19
92.9%
Patrick Rea punt for 41 yds , Isaiah Sategna returns for 19 yds to the ARK 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4293% → 93%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
92.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaaSimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
92.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the ARK 24Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-26
92.6%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Jacob Fields return for 26 yds to the ARK 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4MISSED FG
9 plays · -6 yds · 3:438% → 8%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
92.4%
Evan Bullock run for 1 yd to the ARK 18Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+3
92.1%
Amani Givens run for 3 yds to the ARK 15Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+3
92.0%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Amani Givens for 3 yds to the ARK 12Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+7
91.9%
Buck Buchanan run for 7 yds to the ARK 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
91.5%
Jimmy Holiday run for 2 yds to the ARK 3Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
91.3%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Eli FinleySimilar
Q1 6:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
91.4%
PENALTY LaT False Start (Finley,Eli) 5 yards from ARK03 to ARK08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-17
91.2%
run for a loss of 17 yards to the ARK 25Similar
Q1 5:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 25
+43
91.6%
Buck Buchanan 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 1:5991% → 90%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
91.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 23Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+13
91.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 13 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
91.3%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Isaiah SategnaSimilar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
91.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the ARK 36Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-10
90.8%
(04:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Taylen rush left for 15 yards gain to the LaT49 (Zimos,Zach) PENALTY ARK Holding (Blackstock,Keyshawn) 10 yards from ARK36 to ARK26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 20
OWN 26
0
90.6%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jordan AnthonySimilar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+8
90.4%
Devin Bale punt for 45 yds , Tru Edwards returns for 8 yds to the LT 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3710% → 9%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.4%
Jimmy Holiday run for no gain to the LT 37Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
90.3%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Omiri WigginsSimilar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
90.5%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:44
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
90.6%
Patrick Rea punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:0191% → 90%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
90.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
90.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Isaiah SategnaSimilar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-5
90.3%
PENALTY ARK False Start (Armstrong,Andrew) 5 yards from ARK31 to ARK26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 11
OWN 26
-13
90.1%
Taylen Green sacked by David Blay for a loss of 13 yards to the ARK 13Similar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 24
OWN 13
0
89.8%
Devin Bale punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3211% → 11%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
89.3%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the LT 47Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+7
89.0%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 7 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
88.7%
Evan Bullock run for no gain to the ARK 46Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-5
88.8%
PENALTY LaT Delay Of Game 5 yards from ARK46 to LaT49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
89.1%
Patrick Rea punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:4090% → 89%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
89.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the ARK 16Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+11
89.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 11 yds to the ARK 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
89.2%
Rodney Hill run for 7 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+6
89.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 6 yds Andrew Armstrong fumbled, recovered by LT Zach ZimosSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+6
89.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 6 yds Andrew Armstrong fumbled, recovered by LT Zach ZimosSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1513% → 13%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
87.4%
Amani Givens run for 3 yds to the ARK 37Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+2
87.2%
Amani Givens run for 2 yds to the ARK 35Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
86.9%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Omiri WigginsSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
87.4%
Patrick Rea punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:5089% → 92%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
88.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 16 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
88.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the ARK 39Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-10
88.6%
Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ARK 33Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+12
87.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 12 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
88.1%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the ARK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
88.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 5 yds to the LT 48Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+1
88.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the LT 47Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+3
87.8%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+17
87.1%
Taylen Green run for 17 yds to the LT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
88.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 9 yds to the LT 18Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+7
87.8%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 7 yds to the LT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
92.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 11 yds for a TD Louisiana Tech Penalty, Defensive Holding (Blake Thompson) declined (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0110% → 10%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.5%
(05:49) Shotgun Bullock,Evan rush right for 2 yards loss to the LaT23 (Ball,Cameron) PENALTY ARK Face Mask (Ball,Cameron) 15 yards from LaT25 to LaT40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
90.1%
(05:26) Shotgun Wiggins,Omiri rush left for 5 yards gain to the LaT45 (Rose,Keivie) PENALTY LaT Holding (Hale,Bert) 10 yards from LaT40 to LaT30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+8
90.4%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Solo Lewis for 8 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+4
90.2%
Evan Bullock run for 4 yds to the LT 42Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
90.1%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Solo LewisSimilar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+8
90.5%
Patrick Rea punt for 31 yds , Isaiah Sategna returns for 8 yds to the ARK 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:3992% → 94%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.6%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
91.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 17 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
92.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 3 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
92.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
91.5%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Luke HaszSimilar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+41
93.8%
Taylen Green run for 41 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:187% → 6%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Jimmy HolidaySimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Abdul-Fatai IbrahimSimilar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.6%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 5 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
93.6%
Patrick Rea punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 1:1895% → 94%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
95.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 11 yds to the ARK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
95.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 1
50
+5
95.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the LT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.4%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Rashod DubinionSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
95.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 12 yds to the LT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
95.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-5
94.8%
Taylen Green run for a loss of 5 yards to the LT 38Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 15
OPP 38
+13
94.1%
Taylen Green run for 13 yds to the LT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
94.1%
(00:04) Kneel down by Louisiana Tech at LaT24 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:067% → 7%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
93.1%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the LT 20Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-1
93.2%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 19Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
93.3%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Omiri WigginsSimilar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
93.4%
Patrick Rea punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:3294% → 93%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
93.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 13 yds to the LT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
93.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the LT 43Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+2
93.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 2 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
93.7%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 7
OPP 41
-5
93.3%
PENALTY ARK Delay Of Game 5 yards from LaT41 to LaT46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
93.2%
Devin Bale punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 11Similar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
93.2%
Devin Bale punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:497% → 8%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
92.8%
Jimmy Holiday run for 3 yds to the LT 14Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
92.8%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Amani GivensSimilar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+7
92.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jay Wilkerson for 7 yds to the LT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
92.6%
Amani Givens run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 20Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
92.7%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+10
92.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 10 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 1
OWN 30
-3
92.3%
Jimmy Holiday run for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
97.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:393% → 3%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.2%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 13 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.2%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Jimmy HolidaySimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
97.2%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for no gain to the LT 38Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-6
97.4%
Evan Bullock sacked by Brad Spence for a loss of 6 yards to the LT 32Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 16
OWN 32
+26
97.5%
Patrick Rea punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22TD
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:043% → 10%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
97.2%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the ARK 40Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
97.2%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 3 yds to the ARK 37Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+10
97.3%
Marquis Crosby run for 10 yds to the ARK 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
97.0%
Marquis Crosby run for 1 yd to the ARK 26Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+13
97.1%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Bullock,Evan pass intercepted by Johnson,Jayden at ARK00 Johnson,Jayden return 39 yards to the ARK39 (Christman,Hayden) PENALTY ARK Targeting (Geffrard,Ian) 13 yards from ARK26 to ARK13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. The previous play is under automatic review - "".Similar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
97.0%
Jimmy Holiday run for 4 yds to the ARK 9Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+1
97.1%
Jimmy Holiday run for 1 yd to the ARK 8Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+6
97.6%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 6 yds to the ARK 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.5%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 2 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3794% → 100%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 9 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
94.3%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
94.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 18 yds to the LT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
96.1%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the LT 42Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+10
96.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 10 yds to the LT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
96.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 15 yds to the LT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
97.3%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+8
97.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 8 yds to the LT 9Similar
Q3 0:02
3RD & 2
OPP 9
0
97.3%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Maddox LassiterSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+2
97.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the LT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
97.3%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 8Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.5%
Taylen Green run for 8 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24FUMBLE
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:551% → 1%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
98.8%
Marquis Crosby run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 25Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 12
OWN 25
-7
98.9%
Evan Bullock sacked by Landon Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the LT 18Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 19
OWN 18
+10
99.0%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 10 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+26
99.0%
Patrick Rea run for 26 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.9%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Eli FinleySimilar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
98.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Solo Lewis for 9 yds to the ARK 37Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
98.9%
Marquis Crosby run for no gain to the ARK 37Similar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+12
99.0%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 12 yds Tru Edwards fumbled, recovered by ARK Kee'yon StewartSimilar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+12
99.0%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 12 yds Tru Edwards fumbled, recovered by ARK Kee'yon StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the ARK 25Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jordan AnthonySimilar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Devin Bale punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:081% → 4%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.3%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 16 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.2%
(08:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Bullock,Evan pass incomplete deep right to Holiday,Jimmy thrown to ARK25 PENALTY ARK Pass Interference (Stewart,Kee'yon) 15 yards from LaT41 to ARK44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
99.2%
Omiri Wiggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 45Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+11
99.2%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 11 yds to the ARK 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.2%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 5 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+15
99.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 15 yds to the ARK 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.3%
Marquis Crosby run for 1 yd to the ARK 13Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-7
99.3%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-7 Yards) to the ARK 20Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 16
OPP 20
+20
96.4%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 20 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 2:4399% → 100%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
99.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 18 yds to the ARK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
99.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 16 yds to the ARK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
99.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 13 yds to the LT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
99.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 16 yds to the LT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the LT 20Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+7
99.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 7 yds to the LT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 28DOWNS
13 plays · 26 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
99.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 8 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+5
99.8%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 5 yds to the LT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Marquis Crosby for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 6
50
+4
99.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 4 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Marquis Crosby run for 3 yds to the ARK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Marquis CrosbySimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
Evan Bullock run for 2 yds to the ARK 41Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Abdul-Fatai IbrahimSimilar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Evan Bullock pass incomplete to Abdul-Fatai IbrahimSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
99.9%
(00:57) Kneel down by Arkansas at ARK40 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-1
99.9%
(00:27) Kneel down by Arkansas at ARK39 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:59
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 2 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)
-7.1
TD · Q3 9:54
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q2 5:49
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 11 yds for a TD Louisiana Tech Penalty, Defensive Holding (Blake Thompson) declined (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com