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ULM

UL Monroe 14 at Auburn 48

AUB
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:13 · Makenzie Ryan punt for 34 yds, downed at the AUB 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Pregame prior+43.8Home team on offense+1.4Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:44: Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 3 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK) — AUB win probability +2.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:06: Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 30 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK) — AUB win probability +2.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:09: Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Larson KICK) — ULM win probability +3.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:37: Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 22 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK) — AUB win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:16: Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 40 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK) — AUB win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ULM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:28ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:13ULM 4th & 15 at ULM 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:21AUB 4th & 4 at ULM 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:23ULM 4th & 11 at AUB 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:16ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:58ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:58AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 15, up 17
    Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:31ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:18AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 31, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:37AUB 4th & 4 at ULM 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:39ULM 4th & 13 at ULM 22, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:52ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 32, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:34ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 28, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:53ULM 4th & 22 at ULM 27, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:48AUB 4th & 8 at ULM 8, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:57AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:44AUB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:06AUB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:09ULM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:37AUB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:16AUB Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:48AUB Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:08ULM Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:314% → 4%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.4%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
96.3%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 2 yds to the ULM 30Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
96.2%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+9
96.2%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 39 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for 9 yds to the AUB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:2396% → 96%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
96.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 46Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
96.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 49Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+12
96.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 12 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
96.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 8 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+4
96.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 4 yds to the ULM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
95.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
95.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 7 yds to the ULM 20Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+20
96.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 20 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:424% → 4%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for no gain to the ULM 25Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Davon Wells for 6 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
95.7%
UL Monroe Penalty, Delay Of Game (Aidan Armenta) to the ULM 26Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-6
95.7%
Aidan Armenta sacked by Jalen McLeod and Car'Lin Vigers for a loss of 6 yards to the ULM 20Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
95.7%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 34 yds, downed at the AUB 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:4296% → 95%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
95.7%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 47Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
95.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+30
95.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 30 yds to the ULM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
95.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 13 yds to the ULM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
95.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 4 yds to the ULM 6Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
95.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 2 yds to the ULM 4Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
95.4%
Ian Vachon 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:565% → 5%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.4%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Artis Cole for 3 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
95.3%
James Jones run for 6 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
95.1%
James Jones run for 5 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
95.1%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 41Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+19
94.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nate Sullivan Jr. for 19 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
94.6%
James Jones run for 1 yd to the AUB 39Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-2
94.5%
James Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 41Similar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
94.5%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:23
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
94.7%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 40 yds, downed at the AUB 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
16 plays · 99 yds · 7:3295% → 97%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
94.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 5 yds to the AUB 6Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+4
94.5%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the AUB 10Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+3
94.3%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the AUB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
94.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 2 yds to the AUB 15Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+19
94.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 19 yds to the AUB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
94.2%
Damari Alston run for 9 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-1
94.4%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 42Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+13
94.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 13 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
94.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 13 yds to the ULM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
94.4%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the ULM 30Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
94.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+16
94.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 16 yds to the ULM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
94.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
94.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the ULM 12Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+9
93.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 9 yds to the ULM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 3 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 4:444% → 4%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
95.8%
Aidan Armenta run for 3 yds to the ULM 30Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
95.7%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Ahmad Hardy for 3 yds to the ULM 33Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+2
95.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
95.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds to the ULM 38Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
95.6%
James Jones run for no gain to the ULM 38Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
95.7%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
95.8%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 56 yds, downed at the AUB 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5097% → 96%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
96.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
96.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+9
96.4%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the AUB 15Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
96.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 46 yds, downed at the ULM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:175% → 4%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
95.3%
run for a loss of 8 yards to the ULM 31Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 18
OWN 31
-2
95.8%
James Jones run for 13 yds to the ULM 44 UL Monroe Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the ULM 29Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 20
OWN 29
+11
95.8%
Ahmad Hardy run for 11 yds to the ULM 40Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
95.6%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Malcolm Simmons at the AUB 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:1797% → 98%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
96.7%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+8
96.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 8 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
96.8%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the AUB 49Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
96.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+21
95.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 21 yds to the ULM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
98.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 30 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.7%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3598% → 98%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
98.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 5 yards to the AUB 21Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+10
97.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 10 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 4:582% → 5%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
97.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for 4 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+2
97.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the ULM 30Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+9
98.0%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Artis Cole for 9 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
98.2%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd to the ULM 40Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+37
98.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Tyler Griffin for 37 yds to the AUB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
97.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for 20 yds to the AUB 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.0%
Ahmad Hardy run for 2 yds to the AUB 1Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:2397% → 99%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
96.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 4 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
96.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 5 yds to the AUB 39Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+6
96.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
97.0%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 46Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+9
97.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 9 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
97.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 17 yds to the ULM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
97.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
97.1%
Damari Alston run for 6 yds to the ULM 22Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
97.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+22
98.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 22 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:541% → 1%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.6%
James Jones run for 2 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
98.6%
Aidan Armenta sacked by Demarcus Riddick for a loss of 10 yards to the ULM 17Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+5
98.7%
James Jones run for 5 yds to the ULM 22Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
98.7%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Malcolm Simmons at the AUB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:1699% → 100%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
98.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 19 yds to the ULM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the ULM 40Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+40
99.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 40 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
James Jones run for 6 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
James Jones run for 1 yd to the ULM 32Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Aidan Armenta run for 2 yds to the ULM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
99.9%
Walker White run for 6 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Walker White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+7
99.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the ULM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
99.9%
Walker White run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 23 Walker White fumbled, recovered by ULM Carl Glass Jr. C. Glass Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
Ahmad Hardy run for 5 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 5
OWN 28
-16
99.9%
run for a loss of 16 yards to the ULM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Walker White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
99.9%
Walker White pass complete to Camden Brown for 5 yds to the ULM 7Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Damari Alston run for 7 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
James Jones run for 4 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
99.9%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Amir McGruder for 10 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Aidan Armenta pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
99.9%
James Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 38Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 11
OWN 38
-11
99.9%
Aidan Armenta sacked by Quientrail Jamison-Travis and Amaris Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the ULM 27Similar
Q4 8:53
4TH & 22
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Malcolm Simmons at the AUB 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 6:54100% → 100%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
99.9%
Walker White pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 13 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 7 yds to the ULM 44Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+13
99.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 13 yds to the ULM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.9%
Walker White run for 6 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 3 yds to the ULM 22Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
99.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 3 yds to the ULM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the ULM 17Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+8
100.0%
Walker White run for 8 yds to the ULM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
100.0%
Jeremiah Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 10Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
100.0%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the ULM 8Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
100.0%
Walker White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
99.9%
Ian Vachon 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Taven Curry run for 6 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
100.0%
Taven Curry run for 4 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
100.0%
General Booty pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 65 yds for a TD (Max Larson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
100.0%
(00:01) Kneel down by WHITE, Walker at AUBURN31 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:09
Ahmad Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Larson KICK)
-3.1
TD · Q2 7:44
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 3 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK)
+2.7
TD · Q2 0:06
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 30 yds for a TD (Ian Vachon KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com