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MER

Mercer 7 at Alabama 52

ALA
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMER aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMER score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:59 · John McConnell punt for 47 yds, downed at the ALA 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior+3.6Home team on offense+35.7Score differential+32.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.2Blowout margin+19.0Garbage-time factor+7.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:08: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:37: Robbie Ouzts 44 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick) — ALA win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:45: Zabien Brown 68 Yd Fumble Return (Graham Nicholson Kick) — ALA win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MER has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:58: Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Kendall Harris for 31 yds for a TD (Reice Griffith KICK) — MER win probability +1.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: MER has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:33: Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MER made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:42MER 4th & 1 at MER 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:15ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:52MER 4th & 21 at MER 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:10ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 32, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:55ALA 4th & 7 at MER 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:10MER 4th & 4 at MER 31, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:07ALA 4th & 10 at MER 49, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:29MER 4th & 5 at MER 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:30ALA 4th & 1 at MER 41, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:26MER 4th & 7 at MER 39, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:09ALA 4th & 3 at MER 40, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:59MER 4th & 9 at MER 26, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MER made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:48ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:08ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:37ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:45ALA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:58MER Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:33ALA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:54ALA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:36ALA Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MERDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:451% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.0%
Dwayne Mcgee run for 2 yds to the MER 27Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
99.0%
Alabama Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on RUSSAW, Qua enforced (Qua Russaw) to the MER 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
99.0%
(14:00) MCGEE, Dwayne rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the MER47 (CAMPBELL, Jihaad), clock 13:55. PENALTY Before the snap, MER Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the MER43 to the MER38. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+1
98.9%
Dwayne Mcgee run for 1 yd to the MER 39Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+5
98.9%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Dwayne Mcgee for 5 yds to the MER 44Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+15
98.8%
(12:18) NEWBAUER, Whitt pass to the left incomplete intended for WROBLE, Parker thrown to the ALA41, clock 12:15. PENALTY ALA Pass Interference on SMITH, DeVonta enforced 15 yards to the ALA41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
98.8%
CJ Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 48 CJ Miller fumbled, recovered by ALA Damon Payne Jr. D. Payne Jr. return for 6 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:0299% → 99%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
98.8%
Jam Miller run for 11 yds to the MER 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
98.8%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the MER 36Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+7
98.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 7 yds to the MER 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
98.8%
Ryan Williams run for 29 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:191% → 1%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.8%
Dwayne Mcgee run for 2 yds to the MER 27Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
98.7%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Kelin Parsons for 6 yds to the MER 33Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
98.7%
Dwayne Mcgee run for 1 yd to the MER 34Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
98.6%
John McConnell punt for 51 yds, downed at the ALA 15Similar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
98.6%
(08:29) MILROE, Jalen pass short up the middle incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Ryan broken up by DOWLING, Isaac at the ALA20, clock 08:22. PENALTY MER Roughing the Passer on DOWLING, Isaac enforced 15 yards from the ALA15 to the ALA30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:1499% → 99%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
98.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 16 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.6%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
98.6%
Justice Haynes run for 6 yds to the MER 48Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+7
98.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 7 yds to the MER 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
98.5%
(06:28) HAYNES, Justice rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the MER42 (BLISS, Tommy), clock 06:29. PENALTY ALA Holding on PROCTOR, Kadyn enforced 10 yards from the MER41 to the ALA49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+17
98.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 17 yds to the MER 34Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+8
98.5%
Justice Haynes run for 8 yds to the MER 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
98.4%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the MER 25Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+11
98.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 11 yds to the MER 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
98.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 14 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 5INT
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:472% → 2%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.5%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Kelin Parsons for 1 yd to the MER 26Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
98.5%
CJ Miller run for 19 yds to the MER 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
98.4%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Adjatay Dabbs for 18 yds to the ALA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
98.3%
Mercer Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALA 42Similar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+3
98.3%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Parker Wroble for 3 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+5
98.2%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Adjatay Dabbs for 5 yds to the ALA 34Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
98.1%
Whitt Newbauer pass intercepted Qua Russaw return for no gain to the ALA 32Similar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
98.4%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 27Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+11
98.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 11 yds to the ALA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 2:2398% → 99%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+3
98.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 3 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+2
98.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
98.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 11 yds to the MER 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
98.3%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the MER 44Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+44
99.1%
Robbie Ouzts 44 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 7FUMBLE RETURN TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 3:521% → 1%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.9%
Dwayne Mcgee run for a loss of 2 yards to the MER 23Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
98.9%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Tyrell Coard for 9 yds to the MER 32Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
98.9%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Parker Wroble for 4 yds to the MER 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
98.8%
Dwayne Mcgee run for 6 yds to the MER 42Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
98.8%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Kendall Harris for 1 yd to the MER 43Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+68
99.3%
Zabien Brown 68 Yd Fumble Return (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:531% → 0%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.4%
CJ Miller run for 2 yds to the MER 27Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
99.4%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Kelin Parsons for 12 yds to the MER 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.5%
CJ Miller run for 8 yds to the MER 47Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
99.4%
CJ Miller run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
50
+1
99.5%
Dwayne Mcgee run for 1 yd to the ALA 49Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
99.5%
Whitt Newbauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-12
99.5%
Whitt Newbauer sacked by Jihaad Campbell for a loss of 12 yards to the MER 39Similar
Q2 4:52
4TH & 21
OWN 39
+7
99.6%
John McConnell punt for 42 yds , Ryan Williams returns for 7 yds to the ALA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:32100% → 100%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
99.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 6 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
99.5%
James Burnip punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 10TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 2:050% → 2%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
99.6%
CJ Miller run for 6 yds to the ALA 46Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+11
99.4%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Kelin Parsons for 11 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
99.5%
CJ Miller run for 4 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
98.3%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Kendall Harris for 31 yds for a TD (Reice Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11FG
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:0299% → 99%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
99.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 45 yds to the MER 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.1%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the MER 27Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
99.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
99.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
99.1%
Graham Nicholson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:441% → 1%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.7%
Tyrell Coard run for 1 yd to the MER 26Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
98.7%
Tyrell Coard run for 3 yds to the MER 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:2099% → 100%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
99.0%
Jam Miller run for 13 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.0%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 47Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+5
99.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 5 yds to the MER 48Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+4
99.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the MER 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
99.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 23 yds to the MER 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
99.0%
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the MER 17Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+14
99.0%
Justice Haynes run for 14 yds to the MER 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.0%
HAYNES, Justice rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the MER1 (O'NEAL, Carmelo), clock 11:34. PENALTY Before the snap, MER Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the MER3 to the MER1. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.0%
Jam Miller run for no gainSimilar
Q3 10:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
99.0%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the MER 3Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Kelin Parsons for 7 yds to the MER 32Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
99.8%
Tyrell Coard run for a loss of 1 yard to the MER 31Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Whitt Newbauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+8
99.8%
John McConnell punt for 43 yds , Jaylen Mbakwe returns for 8 yds to the ALA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 35 yds · 4:49100% → 100%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
99.8%
Kendrick Law run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 13Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+15
99.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Caleb Odom for 15 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Caleb Odom for 5 yds to the ALA 33Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-6
99.8%
Kendrick Law run for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 27Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+13
99.8%
Ty Simpson run for 13 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.9%
Richard Young run for 4 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
99.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 5 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Richard Young run for 2 yds to the MER 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
99.8%
James Burnip punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.8%
CJ Miller run for 3 yds to the MER 23Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Kelin Parsons for 2 yds to the MER 25Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Whitt Newbauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
99.9%
John McConnell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Mbakwe at the ALA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:28100% → 100%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.9%
Richard Young run for 9 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
50
-5
99.9%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Caleb Odom) to the ALA 45Similar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Richard Young run for 8 yds to the MER 47Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Richard Young run for no gain to the MER 47Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+5
99.9%
(00:01) SIMPSON, Ty pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SCOTT, Rico thrown to the MER24, clock 00:00. PENALTY MER Offsides on DUDLEY, Brayden enforced 5 yards from the MER47 to the MER42 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
99.9%
Ty Simpson run for 1 yd to the MER 41Similar
Q4 14:30
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
99.9%
Richard Young run for 2 yds to the MER 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
99.9%
Alabama Penalty, Illegal Substitution (-5 Yards) to the MER 44Similar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 15
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+43
99.9%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 43 yds to the MER 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Richard Young run for 1 yd for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Micah Bell run for 11 yds to the MER 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Micah Bell run for 3 yds to the MER 39Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Whitt Newbauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Whitt Newbauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
99.9%
John McConnell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Mbakwe at the ALA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
16 plays · 79 yds · 7:43100% → 100%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
99.9%
Daniel Hill run for 3 yds to the ALA 24Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
99.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Rico Scott for 6 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Daniel Hill run for 2 yds to the ALA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
99.9%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Bubba Hampton for 6 yds to the ALA 38Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Kevin Riley run for 5 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
100.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jay Lindsey for 5 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+5
100.0%
Kevin Riley run for 5 yds to the MER 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
100.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Kevin Riley for 1 yd to the MER 46Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+6
100.0%
Daniel Hill run for 6 yds to the MER 40Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+5
100.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Ty Lockwood for 5 yds to the MER 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
100.0%
Daniel Hill run for 2 yds to the MER 33Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
100.0%
Austin Mack pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+8
100.0%
Austin Mack pass complete to Kevin Riley for 8 yds to the MER 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
100.0%
Kevin Riley run for a loss of 6 yards to the MER 31Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+31
100.0%
Austin Mack pass complete to Rico Scott for 31 yds for a TD (Reid Schuback KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Micah Bell run for no gain to the MER 25Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Micah Bell run for 1 yd to the MER 26Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Whitt Newbauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
John McConnell punt for 47 yds, downed at the ALA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
100.0%
JR Gardner run for 2 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
100.0%
Michael Lorino III run for 3 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
100.0%
JR Gardner run for 3 yds to the ALA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:58
Whitt Newbauer pass complete to Kendall Harris for 31 yds for a TD (Reice Griffith KICK)
-1.2
TD · Q2 12:37
Robbie Ouzts 44 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)
+0.8
TD · Q3 10:33
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com