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MUR

Murray State 6 at Kentucky 48

UK
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreMUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:55 · Tom O'Hara punt for 45 yds, downed at the UK 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior+43.0Home team on offense+6.8Score differential+2.2Blowout margin+0.6Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:00: Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:27: Alex Raynor 32 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:11: Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 19 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:42: Jamarion Wilcox run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MUR made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 9:02MUR 4th & 2 at MUR 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:35MUR 4th & 9 at MUR 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:17MUR 4th & 10 at MUR 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:11UK 4th & 2 at UK 28, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:55MUR 4th & 9 at MUR 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:27UK 4th & 11 at MUR 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:45MUR 4th & 6 at MUR 29, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:30UK 4th & 7 at MUR 7, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:47MUR 4th & 13 at UK 13, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:50MUR 4th & 9 at UK 18, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:02UK 4th & 2 at MUR 22, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:51MUR 4th & 8 at MUR 27, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:34UK 4th & 1 at MUR 40, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:34UK 4th & 1 at MUR 14, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:03MUR 4th & 4 at MUR 45, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:09UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:00UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:11UK Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:42UK Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:02UK Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:34UK Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MURDrive 1INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:531% → 1%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.3%
Jawaun Northington run for 7 yds to the MUR 32Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
99.3%
(14:22) JOHANNSEN, Jayden pass short to the right incomplete intended for HILL, Justice broken up by LOVETT, Jordan at the MSU36, clock 14:19. PENALTY MSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on NEELY, Kade enforced 5 yards from the MSU32 to the MSU27 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
99.3%
Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Keeshawn Silver) to the MUR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.3%
Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MUR 48Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+5
99.2%
Kentucky Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UK 47Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
99.2%
Jayden Johannsen pass intercepted Jordan Lovett return for no gain to the UK 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:5199% → 99%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.2%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the UK 33Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
99.2%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 12 yds to the UK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.1%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the UK 48Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+52
99.2%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 52 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:071% → 1%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Q'Daryius Jennings run for no gain to the MUR 25Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.1%
Q'Daryius Jennings run for a loss of 1 yard to the MUR 24Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
99.1%
Jayden Johannsen pass complete to Justice Hill for 9 yds to the MUR 33Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+12
99.0%
Tom O'Hara punt for 45 yds , Ja'Mori Maclin returns for 12 yds to the UK 45 Murray State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamari Dailey) to the UK 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-34
99.0%
Brock Vandagriff pass intercepted KaVan Reed return for 34 yds to the MUR 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
99.0%
Jayden Johannsen sacked by Tre'vonn Rybka for a loss of 7 yards to the MUR 39Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+4
99.0%
Kywon Morgan run for 4 yds to the MUR 43Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+4
98.9%
Jayden Johannsen pass complete to JK Carter for 4 yds to the MUR 47Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 9
OWN 47
+21
98.9%
Tom O'Hara punt for 47 yds , Quay'sheed Scott returns for 21 yds to the UK 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 5:2199% → 99%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
98.9%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 7 yds to the UK 34Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
98.8%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 4 yds to the UK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
98.8%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd to the UK 39Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
98.8%
Brock Vandagriff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+26
98.7%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 26 yds to the MUR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
98.7%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 8 yds to the MUR 27Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+7
98.7%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 7 yds to the MUR 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
98.7%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Kevon Haigler for a loss of 5 yards to the MUR 25Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 15
OPP 25
0
98.6%
Brock Vandagriff run for no gain to the MUR 25Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+22
98.5%
Brock Vandagriff run for 22 yds to the MUR 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.8%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:421% → 1%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.7%
Jayden Johannsen run for 15 yds to the MUR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
98.6%
(00:23) NORTHINGTON, Jawaun rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the MSU43 (LOVETT, Jordan;BRYANT, Ty), clock 00:00. PENALTY Before the snap, MSU False Start on KOFOWO, Henry enforced 5 yards from the end of the play at the MSU43 to the MSU38. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+2
98.6%
Jawaun Northington run for 2 yds to the MUR 40Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Jayden Johannsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Tom O'Hara punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5599% → 99%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.7%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 2 yds to the UK 22Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-10
98.6%
Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marques Cox) to the UK 13Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 17
OWN 13
0
98.6%
Brock Vandagriff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+10
98.6%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 10 yds to the UK 23Similar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+5
98.5%
Murray State Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UK 28Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
98.5%
Aidan Laros punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Justice Hill at the MUR 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:092% → 2%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
98.4%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Kylan Galbreath for 11 yds to the MUR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
98.4%
Q'Daryius Jennings run for 16 yds to the MUR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.3%
Jim Ogle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
98.3%
Jim Ogle run for 1 yd to the MUR 47Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
98.2%
Jim Ogle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
98.3%
Tom O'Hara punt for 45 yds, downed at the UK 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10FG
14 plays · 78 yds · 4:1998% → 99%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
98.4%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 15 yds to the UK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
98.4%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 2 yds to the UK 25Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+10
98.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 10 yds to the UK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
98.2%
Hardley Gilmore IV run for 9 yds to the UK 44 Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Dingle) to the UK 34Similar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 11
OWN 34
+13
98.2%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 13 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+32
98.3%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 32 yds to the MUR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-9
98.2%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Jayson Coley for a loss of 9 yards to the MUR 30Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 19
OPP 30
+3
98.2%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the MUR 27Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 16
OPP 27
+14
98.1%
VANDAGRIFF, Brock pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for KEY, Dane thrown to the MSU7, clock 06:23. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on WANSLEY, Amari enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the MSU13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
98.2%
Brock Vandagriff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-1
98.2%
Jamarion Wilcox run for a loss of 1 yard to the MUR 14Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
98.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+32
98.5%
Alex Raynor 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 11INT
6 plays · 53 yds · 3:012% → 2%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.4%
Jawaun Northington run for 8 yds to the MUR 33Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+44
98.2%
Jim Ogle pass complete to JK Carter for 44 yds to the UK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
98.0%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Jawaun Northington for 5 yds to the UK 18Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-7
97.9%
Jawaun Northington run for 3 yds to the UK 15 Murray State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UK 25Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+3
98.0%
Q'Daryius Jennings run for 3 yds to the UK 22Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
98.0%
Jim Ogle pass intercepted Jordan Lovett return for no gain to the UK 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD
13 plays · 91 yds · 2:0898% → 99%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
98.4%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 7 yds to the UK 16Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 3
OWN 16
-1
98.3%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 15Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+14
98.2%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 14 yds to the UK 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
98.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 11 yds to the UK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+20
98.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 20 yds to the MUR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
98.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 6 yds to the MUR 34Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+7
98.4%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 7 yds to the MUR 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
98.4%
Brock Vandagriff run for 11 yds to the MUR 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
98.1%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Esteban Guillory for a loss of 3 yards to the MUR 19Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+19
99.2%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 19 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.9%
Q'Daryius Jennings run for 2 yds to the MUR 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1899% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.1%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Josh Kattus for 19 yds to the UK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
99.2%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 12 yds to the MUR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
99.1%
Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (Hardley Gilmore IV) to the MUR 45Similar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 11
OPP 45
+3
99.1%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the MUR 42Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+18
99.1%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Dane Key for 18 yds to the MUR 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
99.1%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 20 yds to the MUR 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:570% → 0%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MUR 26Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Jim Ogle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
99.8%
Jim Ogle pass complete to JK Carter for 3 yds to the MUR 29Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+17
99.8%
Tom O'Hara punt for 44 yds , Ja'Mori Maclin returns for 17 yds to the UK 46 Murray State Penalty, Illegal Formation (Dennard Flowers) to the UK 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
99.8%
Cutter Boley run for 30 yds to the MUR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+15
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Anthony Brown-Stephens for 15 yds to the MUR 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Khamari Anderson for 4 yds to the MUR 2Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.8%
Cutter Boley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.8%
Kentucky Penalty, False Start (Jager Burton) to the MUR 7Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+26
99.9%
Alex Raynor 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 17FG
18 plays · 77 yds · 7:350% → 0%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
99.9%
Jawaun Northington run for 2 yds to the MUR 12Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+8
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Marcus Floyd Jr. for 8 yds to the MUR 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.9%
Jawaun Northington run for 2 yds to the MUR 22Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
Jim Ogle run for 5 yds to the MUR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Jawaun Northington run for 2 yds to the MUR 44Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+14
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass complete to JK Carter for 14 yds to the UK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
Jim Ogle run for 6 yds to the UK 36Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+25
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass complete to JK Carter for 25 yds to the UK 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
99.9%
(03:08) QB Keeper OGLE, Jim rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the UK7 (SMITH, Antwan), out of bounds, clock 03:04. PENALTY MSU Holding on KOFOWO, Henry enforced 10 yards from the UK11 to the UK21 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 20
OPP 21
-5
99.9%
Murray State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UK 26Similar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 25
OPP 26
+7
99.9%
(02:22) OGLE, Jim pass up the middle incomplete intended for FLOYD, JR., Marcus thrown to the UK18, clock 02:18. PENALTY UK Pass Interference on SMITH, Jaden enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the UK19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
99.9%
(01:46) OGLE, Jim pass to the right complete for 9 yards to NORTHINGTON, Jawaun caught at the UK0 and advanced to the UK0, TOUCHDOWN MSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:41 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on DOWNING, Elijah enforced 5 yards from the UK9 to the UK14 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Justice Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
99.9%
Q'Daryius Jennings run for 1 yd to the UK 13Similar
Q3 0:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+32
99.9%
James London 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 18FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:420% → 0%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
99.9%
Q'Daryius Jennings run for 1 yd to the UK 18Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+36
99.9%
James London 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:47100% → 100%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 5 yds to the UK 30Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
99.9%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 10 yds to the UK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Jamarion Wilcox for 3 yds to the UK 43Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+15
99.9%
(12:58) BOLEY, Cutter sacked for a loss of 1 yard at the UK42 (HAIGLER, Kevon;SUGICK, Terion), clock 12:51. PENALTY MSU Personal Foul on COLEY, Jayson enforced 15 yards from the UK43 to the MSU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
99.9%
Anthony Brown-Stephens run for 12 yds to the MUR 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
99.9%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 1 yd to the MUR 29Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-9
99.9%
Cutter Boley sacked by Jayson Coley for a loss of 9 yards to the MUR 38Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+16
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 16 yds to the MUR 22Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+22
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Anthony Brown-Stephens for 22 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Jawaun Northington run for 7 yds to the MUR 32Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
99.9%
Murray State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Dennard Flowers) to the MUR 27Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Jim Ogle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Tom O'Hara punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ja'Mori Maclin at the UK 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:09100% → 100%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Chip Trayanum run for no gain to the UK 28Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+10
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 10 yds to the UK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the UK 43Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+8
99.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 8 yds to the MUR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the MUR 45Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
99.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the MUR 42Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the MUR 40Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+17
99.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 17 yds to the MUR 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Tovani Mizell run for no gain to the MUR 23Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+9
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to David Washington Jr. for 9 yds to the MUR 14Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+14
100.0%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Anthony Brown-Stephens for 14 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 22INT
10 plays · 47 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
100.0%
Jim Ogle pass complete to JK Carter for 14 yds to the MUR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Jim Ogle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Jim Ogle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+6
100.0%
Jim Ogle pass complete to Elijah Downing for 6 yds to the MUR 45Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+26
100.0%
Jim Ogle pass complete to JK Carter for 26 yds to the UK 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
99.9%
Jim Ogle run for 1 yd to the UK 28Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
100.0%
Jim Ogle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
100.0%
Jim Ogle pass intercepted, touchback. Jackson Schulz return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
100.0%
(01:34) [NH] Kneel down by BOLEY, Cutter at UK19 (team loss of 1), clock 01:28.Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
100.0%
(00:57) [NH] Kneel down by BOLEY, Cutter at UK18 (team loss of 1), clock 00:50.Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
100.0%
(00:24) [NH] Kneel down by BOLEY, Cutter at UK18 (team loss of 0), clock 00:16.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:11
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 19 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q3 11:42
Jamarion Wilcox run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 1:00
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com