Try the model
TEX

Texas 20 at Arkansas 10

ARK
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Razorback Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:57 · Michael Kern punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior−32.9Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 8:36: Bert Auburn 33 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +4.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:39: Ja'Quinden Jackson 1 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick) — ARK win probability +14.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:39: Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — TEX win probability +5.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:48: Matthew Shipley 44 Yd Field Goal — ARK win probability +4.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:05: Matthew Golden 1 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +13.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TEX made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 12:57TEX 4th & 12 at TEX 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:39ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:13TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:21ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:58TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:06TEX 4th & 1 at ARK 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−1.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:15TEX 4th & 8 at ARK 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:17ARK 4th & 13 at TEX 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:51TEX 4th & 16 at ARK 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    76.9%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:46ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:19TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:15ARK 4th & 25 at ARK 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−1.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:36TEX 4th & 11 at ARK 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−6.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:45TEX 4th & 12 at TEX 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−4.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:48ARK 4th & 10 at TEX 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−10.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:15TEX 4th & 2 at ARK 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−1.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:23TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:39ARK Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:05TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5783% → 83%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.6%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
16.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 17 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
16.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 1 yd to the TEX 46Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
17.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-3
17.1%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Brad Spence for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 43Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
17.5%
Michael Kern punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1118% → 18%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
17.6%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the ARK 22Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+6
17.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 6 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
18.0%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
18.0%
Devin Bale punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1882% → 81%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
18.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 1 yd to the TEX 36Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
18.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 7 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-8
18.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TEX 35Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
19.0%
Michael Kern punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4INT
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:2419% → 19%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
19.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 9 yds to the ARK 35Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+1
19.4%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Jahdae Barron return for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:0881% → 82%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
19.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
50
+17
19.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Silas Bolden for 17 yds to the ARK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
19.1%
Jaydon Blue run for 8 yds to the ARK 25Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+5
19.3%
Jaydon Blue run for 5 yds to the ARK 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
19.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ryan Wingo, broken up by Hudson ClarkSimilar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
17.8%
Matthew Golden 20 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4919% → 19%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
18.5%
Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the ARK 22Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+2
18.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the ARK 24Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-1
18.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 23Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
18.6%
Devin Bale punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Silas Bolden at the TEX 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1981% → 81%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
18.6%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
18.7%
Jaydon Blue run for 4 yds to the TEX 41Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-5
18.6%
Quinn Ewers run for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 36Similar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
19.4%
Michael Kern punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:5019% → 20%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
19.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
50
+5
20.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the TEX 45Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
20.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the TEX 41Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
20.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-12
20.9%
Taylen Green sacked by Alfred Collins for a loss of 12 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 22
50
0
20.3%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 22
50
-10
20.0%
Taylen Green sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 10 yards to the ARK 40Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 32
OWN 40
0
19.7%
Devin Bale punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARK 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9FG
12 plays · 27 yds · 3:3781% → 81%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
19.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-1
19.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 46Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+7
19.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Silas Bolden for 7 yds to the ARK 39Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
20.3%
Jerrick Gibson run for 3 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
19.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Matthew Golden, broken up by TJ MetcalfSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-4
19.9%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 6 yds to the ARK 30 Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matthew Golden) to the ARK 40Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+17
20.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 17 yds to the ARK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
19.8%
Jaydon Blue run for 2 yds to the ARK 21Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
19.9%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Gunnar HelmSimilar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
20.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+39
19.3%
Bert Auburn 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:5319% → 19%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 6 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
19.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 10 yds to the ARK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
20.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jordan Anthony for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 1
50
+7
20.6%
Taylen Green run for 7 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
20.8%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the TEX 43Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-10
20.5%
Green, Taylen pass incomplete, PENALTY ARK holding (Hasz, Luke) 10 yards to the ARK47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 20
OWN 47
0
19.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Andreas Paaske, broken up by Jelani McDonaldSimilar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 20
OWN 47
+7
19.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rodney Hill for 7 yds to the TEX 46Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 13
OPP 46
+12
19.1%
Devin Bale punt for 44 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 12 yds to the TEX 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT
14 plays · 45 yds · 5:2281% → 81%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
19.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Gunnar HelmSimilar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+10
19.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 10 yds to the TEX 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
19.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
19.1%
Jaydon Blue run for 4 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+12
19.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 12 yds to the TEX 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
18.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Silas Bolden for 9 yds to the TEX 49Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+5
18.2%
Arkansas Penalty, Defensive Offside (Doneiko Slaughter) to the ARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
18.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 6 yds to the ARK 40Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+2
18.1%
Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the ARK 38Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
18.4%
Jaydon Blue run for 3 yds to the ARK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
18.2%
Jaydon Blue run for 6 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-8
18.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for a loss of 8 yards to the ARK 37Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 12
OPP 37
-4
18.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 41Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 16
OPP 41
0
19.3%
Michael Kern punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0119% → 19%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
19.1%
Taylen Green sacked by Trey Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the ARK 13Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+5
19.0%
Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the ARK 18Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+6
18.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 6 yds to the ARK 24Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
18.6%
Devin Bale punt for 59 yds, downed at the TEX 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2281% → 80%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
19.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 3 yds to the TEX 20Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+4
19.3%
Quinn Ewers run for 4 yds to the TEX 24Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-4
18.4%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Landon Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the TEX 20Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
20.2%
Michael Kern punt for 42 yds , Isaiah Sategna returns for no gain to the ARK 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
20.0%
Taylen Green sacked by Jahdae Barron for a loss of 6 yards to the ARK 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 3:3519% → 17%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
18.8%
Taylen Green run for 2 yds to the ARK 16Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+1
19.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 1 yd to the ARK 17Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+7
18.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 7 yds to the ARK 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
18.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the ARK 24Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-7
18.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for a loss of 7 yards to the ARK 17Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 17
OWN 17
-8
17.8%
Taylen Green sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 8 yards to the ARK 9Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 25
OWN 9
0
17.3%
Devin Bale punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Silas Bolden at the TEX 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:3282% → 86%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
18.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 9
50
+7
18.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 7 yds to the ARK 43Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+30
18.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 30 yds to the ARK 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
17.8%
Jaydon Blue run for 4 yds to the ARK 9Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-1
17.8%
Jaydon Blue run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 10Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 7
OPP 10
-5
19.5%
Texas Penalty, False Start (DJ Campbell) to the ARK 14Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
18.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Gunnar HelmSimilar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+33
14.0%
Bert Auburn 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4917% → 33%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.8%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
16.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
16.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
16.7%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Jordan Anthony, broken up by Jahdae BarronSimilar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+25
16.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 25 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
18.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 6 yds to the TEX 32Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+9
19.3%
Taylen Green run for 9 yds to the TEX 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
19.3%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+12
18.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 12 yds to the TEX 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
18.4%
Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the TEX 5Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+4
18.3%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the TEX 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson 1 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4976% → 74%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
23.8%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 23Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
24.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ryan WingoSimilar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
25.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Silas BoldenSimilar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
26.3%
Michael Kern punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:5128% → 38%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
28.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the ARK 40Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
30.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the ARK 44Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
30.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
32.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 11 yds to the TEX 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
32.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the TEX 37Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+11
33.3%
Taylen Green run for 11 yds to the TEX 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
35.4%
Taylen Green run for a loss of 6 yards to the TEX 32Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 16
OPP 32
+6
33.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 6 yds to the TEX 26Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
33.4%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Ja'Quinden JacksonSimilar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
38.1%
Matthew Shipley 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2868% → 89%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
31.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 20 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
29.2%
Jaydon Blue run for 7 yds to the ARK 48Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+6
28.1%
Jaydon Blue run for 6 yds to the ARK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+28
28.6%
Jaydon Blue run for 28 yds to the ARK 14 Jaydon Blue fumbled, forced by Hudson Clark, recovered by TEXSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
25.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the ARK 12Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+8
24.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Juan Davis for 8 yds to the ARK 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
24.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the ARK 1Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.8%
Matthew Golden 1 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:5813% → 14%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
13.2%
Taylen Green sacked by Barryn Sorrell for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 20Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
12.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 10 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+20
12.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
50
+11
14.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 11 yds to the TEX 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
14.9%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Isaiah SategnaSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+12
14.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to CJ Brown for 12 yds CJ Brown fumbled, forced by Alfred Collins, recovered by TEX Michael TaaffeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22END OF GAME
18 plays · 43 yds · 6:1089% → 96%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
11.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 5 yds to the TEX 32Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+6
10.0%
Jaydon Blue run for 6 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
9.5%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 35Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 13
OWN 35
0
10.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Silas BoldenSimilar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+17
10.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 17 yds to the ARK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
8.9%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the ARK 44Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+6
7.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 6 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
6.6%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the ARK 36Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+1
6.5%
Jaydon Blue run for 1 yd to the ARK 35Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+5
6.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 5 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+3
5.0%
Quinn Ewers run for 3 yds to the ARK 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
3.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 28Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-1
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 29Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 12
OPP 29
-1
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:39
Ja'Quinden Jackson 1 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick)
+14.8
TD · Q4 9:05
Matthew Golden 1 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
-13.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:39
Devin Bale kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com