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MSST

Mississippi State 14 at Tennessee 33

TENN
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · (00:04) Kneel down by Tennessee at MSST09 for loss of 4 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:35: Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 73 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +2.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:47: Davon Booth run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +2.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: Defense has -4 timeouts left).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Max Gilbert 38 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +2.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:22: Johnnie Daniels run for 18 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +4.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:31: Dylan Sampson run for 33 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +5.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MSST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 14:18MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:04TENN 4th & 3 at MSST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:44TENN 4th & 6 at MSST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:52MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:32TENN 4th & 1 at MSST 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:26MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:30TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:47MSST 4th & 19 at MSST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:59MSST 4th & 1 at TENN 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:47MSST 4th & 1 at TENN 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:46TENN 4th & 4 at MSST 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:14MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:56TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 37, up 13
    Close callPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:56TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 37, up 13
    Close callPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:59TENN 4th & 12 at MSST 33, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:08MSST 4th & 15 at MSST 33, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:14TENN 4th & 5 at MSST 21, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−1.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:11MSST 4th & 21 at MSST 28, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:07TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 28, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:32MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 27, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:44TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:35TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:47MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:22MSST Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:31TENN Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:274% → 5%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 24Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
95.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Seydou TraoreSimilar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
95.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.Similar
Q1 14:18
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
95.5%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:2696% → 95%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
95.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 8 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+9
95.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 9 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
95.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the MSST 35Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+4
95.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+2
95.1%
Nico Iamaleava run for 2 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+34
95.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 34 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 1:485% → 5%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Johnnie DanielsSimilar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Johnnie DanielsSimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 10 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
95.1%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 36Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
95.1%
Johnnie Daniels run for 7 yds to the MSST 43Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
94.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kelly AkharaiyiSimilar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+28
95.0%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 50 yds , Boo Carter returns for 28 yds to the TENN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4FUMBLE
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:1795% → 95%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the TENN 40Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
95.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
50
+13
95.1%
Nico Iamaleava run for 13 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
94.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 8 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+4
95.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 4 yds to the MSST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
94.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 7 yds to the MSST 18Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+2
94.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the MSST 16Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+4
95.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the MSST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
95.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
95.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the MSST 7 Dylan Sampson fumbled, recovered by MSST Hunter WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5INT
1 play · 3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
94.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 3 yds to the MSST 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1595% → 95%
Q1 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
95.3%
Peyton Lewis run for 3 yds to the MSST 6Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
95.1%
Peyton Lewis run for 3 yds to the MSST 3Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
95.0%
Peyton Lewis run for 2 yds to the MSST 1Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.9%
Peyton Lewis run for no gain to the MSST 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:046% → 6%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
94.1%
PENALTY MSST Delay Of Game . NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
94.0%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 2Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+19
93.9%
Davon Booth run for 19 yds to the MSST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
93.8%
(03:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Van Buren Jr.,Michael pass incomplete short left to Coleman Jr.,Kevin thrown to MSST32 broken up by McMurray,Jalen PENALTY TENN Offside (Eason,Bryson) 5 yards from MSST21 to MSST26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 5
OWN 26
+19
93.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 19 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
93.5%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 44Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+1
93.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 1 yd to the MSST 45Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
93.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Davon BoothSimilar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+3
93.6%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 38 yds , Boo Carter returns for 3 yds to the TENN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5095% → 94%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Mike MatthewsSimilar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
94.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the TENN 21Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
94.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
94.0%
Jackson Ross punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:137% → 7%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
93.2%
Johnnie Daniels run for 11 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
93.0%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 42Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
93.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-10
93.0%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Van Buren Jr.,Michael rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSST50, End Of Play PENALTY MSST Holding (Reese IV,Albert) 10 yards from MSST42 to MSST32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 19
OWN 32
0
93.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Mario CraverSimilar
Q2 13:47
4TH & 19
OWN 32
+5
93.3%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 46 yds , Boo Carter returns for 5 yds to the TENN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
95.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 73 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 7:365% → 8%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 3 yds to the MSST 22Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
94.8%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+19
94.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 19 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
94.4%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 45Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+17
94.5%
Davon Booth run for 17 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
94.1%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the TENN 36Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
94.0%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the TENN 36Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+9
94.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 9 yds to the TENN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+7
94.3%
Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the TENN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
93.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Justin Ball for 4 yds to the TENN 18Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+3
93.8%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the TENN 15Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+7
94.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 7 yds to the TENN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
94.0%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the TENN 5Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Seydou TraoreSimilar
Q2 6:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
94.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 4 yds to the TENN 1Similar
Q2 5:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.4%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12FG
20 plays · 64 yds · 4:4693% → 93%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
93.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the TENN 31Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+11
93.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 11 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
93.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 6 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+1
93.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the TENN 49Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+17
93.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 17 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
93.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+1
93.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the MSST 27Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
93.0%
Nico Iamaleava run for no gain to the MSST 27Similar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+5
92.6%
PENALTY MSST Offside (Mitchell,Nic) 5 yards from MSST27 to MSST22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
93.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the MSST 16Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
93.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the MSST 13Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+1
92.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the MSST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
93.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the MSST 13Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+7
93.4%
Nico Iamaleava run for 7 yds to the MSST 6Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
91.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Dont'e Thornton Jr.Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
92.7%
Max Gilbert 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:286% → 6%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Johnnie DanielsSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.3%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 23Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+23
94.4%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 46 yds , Boo Carter returns for 23 yds to the MSST 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14FG
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:1194% → 96%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
93.9%
Cameron Seldon run for 5 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+21
93.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 21 yds to the MSST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+38
95.7%
Max Gilbert 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:3394% → 94%
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
94.1%
Cameron Seldon run for 2 yds to the TENN 33Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
94.0%
Cameron Seldon run for 2 yds to the TENN 35Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+2
94.0%
Gaston Moore run for 2 yds to the TENN 37Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+7
93.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 43 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 7 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+7
93.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 43 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 7 yds to the MSST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 53 yds · 1:407% → 8%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
93.4%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 12Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+23
93.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 23 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
93.2%
Davon Booth run for 16 yds to the TENN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
92.7%
(11:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Booth,Davon rush middle for 10 yards gain to the TENN39 (Telander,Jeremiah; Carter,Arion) PENALTY MSST Holding (Martinez,Marlon) 10 yards from TENN49 to MSST41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 20
OWN 41
0
93.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Seydou TraoreSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+15
93.8%
Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TENN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
92.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Jayson Jenkins for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 35 Michael Van Buren Jr. fumbled, recovered by MSST Jeremiah Telander , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17FG
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:0594% → 96%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.8%
Gaston Moore pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
93.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the TENN 39Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+15
94.2%
(10:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Moore,Gaston pass incomplete deep left to White,Squirrel thrown to MSST15 PENALTY MSST Pass Interference (Ellington,Corey) 15 yards from TENN39 to MSST46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
94.5%
(10:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Moore,Gaston pass incomplete deep left to McCoy,Bru thrown to MSST00 broken up by Lanier,Brylan PENALTY MSST Pass Interference (Lanier,Brylan) 15 yards from MSST46 to MSST31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.5%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the MSST 31Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-10
94.5%
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun Sampson,Dylan rush right for 7 yards gain to the MSST24 (Washington,Hunter) PENALTY TENN Holding (Lampley,Jackson) 10 yards from MSST31 to MSST41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 20
OPP 41
+11
94.4%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Ethan Davis for 11 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+3
94.3%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 3 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+51
95.6%
Max Gilbert 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:306% → 12%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
93.6%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+43
93.5%
Davon Booth run for 43 yds to the TENN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
92.3%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the TENN 18Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
88.0%
Johnnie Daniels run for 18 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5190% → 97%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.6%
Tennessee Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Yards) to the MSST 35Similar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.0%
Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) to the TENN 25Similar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.0%
Gaston Moore pass incomplete to Dont'e Thornton Jr.Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
89.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 10 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
90.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 8 yds to the TENN 43Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+6
91.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the TENN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
91.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+14
91.1%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 14 yds to the MSST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
96.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 33 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:195% → 5%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Mario CraverSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Mario Craver for 13 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
94.1%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
94.1%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-9
94.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Bryson Eason for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 33Similar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
95.0%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 12 , Boo Carter returns for no gain to the TENN 33 Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (John Slaughter) to the TENN 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21FG
19 plays · 67 yds · 7:2998% → 100%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
98.0%
Peyton Lewis run for 3 yds to the TENN 15Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
98.0%
Gaston Moore pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q3 0:21
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+15
98.4%
(00:26) Shotgun Moore,Gaston pass incomplete deep right to Staes,Holden thrown to TENN45 PENALTY MSST Pass Interference (Woodard,Tyler) 15 yards from TENN15 to TENN30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
98.5%
Peyton Lewis run for 11 yds to the TENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
98.6%
Peyton Lewis run for 1 yd to the TENN 42Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+3
98.6%
Peyton Lewis run for 3 yds to the TENN 45Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+8
98.7%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 8 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
98.7%
Peyton Lewis run for 7 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+3
98.9%
Peyton Lewis run for 3 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.0%
Peyton Lewis run for no gain to the MSST 37Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
99.0%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Bru McCoy for 8 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+3
98.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the MSST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
99.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+2
99.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the MSST 19Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+2
99.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
99.6%
Max Gilbert 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 1:572% → 2%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.0%
Johnnie Daniels run for 8 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
98.0%
Johnnie Daniels run for 6 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
98.0%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 40Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
98.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kelly AkharaiyiSimilar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 9
OWN 40
-12
98.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Omarr Norman-Lott for a loss of 12 yards to the MSST 28Similar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 21
OWN 28
0
98.3%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 47 yds , Boo Carter returns for no gain to the TENN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
99.7%
Gaston Moore run for 1 yd to the TENN 25 Gaston Moore fumbled, recovered by MSST Gabe MooreSimilar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Peyton Lewis run for 3 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+5
99.7%
PENALTY MSST Offside (Anderson,Deonte) 5 yards from TENN28 to TENN33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 1
OWN 33
-5
99.7%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Moore,Gaston pass complete short left to Kitselman,Miles caught at TENN34, for 5 yards to the TENN38 (Keys Jr.,Chris) PENALTY TENN Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Davis,Dayne) 5 yards from TENN33 to TENN28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
99.7%
Peyton Lewis run for no gain to the TENN 28Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
99.7%
Jackson Ross punt for 47 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for no gain to the MSST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:281% → 1%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
98.7%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 26Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
98.7%
Tennessee Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Yards) to the MSST 26Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-4
98.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 22Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+5
98.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Johnnie Daniels for 5 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
98.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete to Kevin Coleman Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
99.8%
Peyton Lewis run for 5 yds to the MSST 22Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+5
99.7%
Cameron Seldon run for 5 yds to the MSST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
99.7%
Cameron Seldon run for 2 yds to the MSST 15Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+10
99.7%
Cameron Seldon run for 10 yds to the MSST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
99.6%
(00:04) Kneel down by Tennessee at MSST09 for loss of 4 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:31
Dylan Sampson run for 33 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q3 6:22
Johnnie Daniels run for 18 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-4.3
TD · Q2 13:35
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 73 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com