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ALA

Alabama 42 at LSU 13

LSU
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:36 · Garrett Nussmeier run for 2 yds to the ALA 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense−13.0Score differential−7.7Garbage-time factor−4.6Pregame prior−5.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:49: Jalen Milroe run for 39 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +1.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:06: Justice Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +3.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:35: Jalen Milroe run for 10 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +8.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:05: Jalen Milroe run for 19 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +8.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:50: Jalen Milroe run for 72 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:00LSU 4th & 6 at ALA 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:00LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:54ALA 4th & 13 at LSU 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:26LSU 4th & 15 at ALA 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:37ALA 4th & 1 at LSU 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−2.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:36LSU 4th & 1 at ALA 46, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−4.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:30LSU 4th & 4 at ALA 38, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    22.1%−1.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:04LSU 4th & 25 at LSU 46, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−2.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:46LSU 4th & 5 at ALA 21, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:26ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 23, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:49ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:06ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:35ALA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:05ALA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:50ALA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:07ALA Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:11LSU Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1161% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
38.6%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Kadyn Proctor) to the ALA 20Similar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
38.6%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 21Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+19
39.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 19 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
39.0%
Kendrick Law run for no gain to the ALA 40Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
39.2%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 41Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+10
39.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 10 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
39.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 9 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+1
39.4%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
38.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 39 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:3439% → 40%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
50
0
39.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
50
+45
38.9%
Caden Durham run for 45 yds to the ALA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
39.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Trey'Dez GreenSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
39.2%
Josh Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 6Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
39.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
39.8%
Damian Ramos 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:3860% → 65%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 5 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
39.4%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
39.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the ALA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
39.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 8 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+7
39.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 7 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
39.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+10
39.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 10 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
39.1%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
39.2%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
39.2%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+20
38.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 20 yds to the LSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
38.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
38.6%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+6
39.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 6 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.5%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.9%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:5035% → 34%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
35.2%
Caden Durham run for 7 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+2
35.3%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
34.9%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
35.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 7 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-1
35.3%
Caden Durham run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
34.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+28
33.9%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 42 yds , Ryan Williams returns for 28 yds to the LSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 9 yds · 3:0066% → 67%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
33.6%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
32.4%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+11
32.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 11 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
31.8%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+1
31.4%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 3
OPP 29
-5
32.2%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Danny Lewis Jr.) to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
32.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr.Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 8
OPP 34
-5
33.3%
Alabama Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
33.5%
James Burnip punt for 29 yds, downed at the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:1835% → 34%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+26
35.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 26 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
35.7%
Zavion Thomas run for 12 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
35.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 16 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
35.9%
Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Tim Smith) to the ALA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
36.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Josh WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-10
36.8%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Will Campbell) to the ALA 31Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 20
OPP 31
0
36.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 20
OPP 31
+5
35.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 5 yds to the ALA 26Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 15
OPP 26
+43
34.0%
Damian Ramos 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:3966% → 70%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.7%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
31.9%
Kendrick Law run for 4 yds to the ALA 33Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
31.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
30.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+8
30.4%
Justice Haynes run for 8 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
29.4%
Justice Haynes run for 7 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
28.7%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
28.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
29.9%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the LSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
34.0%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Jihaad Campbell for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 32 Garrett Nussmeier fumbled, forced by Jihaad Campbell, recovered by ALA Tim Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:4072% → 81%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
28.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 22 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
27.3%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
18.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 10 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10END OF HALF
13 plays · 33 yds · 1:4825% → 27%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
24.6%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 19Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+14
24.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 14 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
24.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 8 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+5
26.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 5 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
26.3%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 6 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
26.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 3 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
26.7%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
26.5%
LSU Penalty, False Start (DJ Chester) to the ALA 47Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 15
OPP 47
0
25.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+4
25.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 4 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 11
OPP 43
-6
27.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11INT
16 plays · 71 yds · 5:5123% → 22%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
23.1%
Zavion Thomas run for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
23.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
23.0%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 14 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
24.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
24.0%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+7
23.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 7 yds to the ALA 46Similar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
23.5%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 2 yds to the ALA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
24.0%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Emery Jones Jr.) to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 20
OWN 46
0
21.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 20
OWN 46
+11
20.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 11 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+5
21.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 5 yds to the ALA 38Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+12
21.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 12 yds to the ALA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
22.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 21 yds to the ALA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
22.4%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the ALA 4Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
22.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted, touchback. Deontae Lawson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2584% → 96%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
15.8%
Kendrick Law run for 8 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+8
15.4%
Jam Miller run for 8 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
14.9%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the ALA 38Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
14.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kendrick LawSimilar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+15
14.6%
LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
13.9%
Ryan Williams run for 22 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
13.2%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the LSU 24Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
12.9%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+19
4.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 19 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:436% → 5%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
5.5%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+28
5.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 28 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
5.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
5.4%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the ALA 38Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-11
5.0%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Jihaad Campbell and DaShawn Jones for a loss of 11 yards to the ALA 49Similar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 20
OPP 49
-5
4.6%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 25
OWN 46
0
4.5%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan Williams at the ALA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 2:0297% → 99%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
3.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 12 yds to the ALA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
3.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the ALA 28Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
3.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for no gain to the ALA 28Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+72
0.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 72 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:401% → 0%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
1.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 4 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
0.8%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 5 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
0.7%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the ALA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
0.7%
Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ALA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
0.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 27Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+6
0.7%
Caden Durham run for 6 yds to the ALA 21Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
0.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+1
0.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 1 yd to the ALA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0999% → 100%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
0.6%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the ALA 26Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
0.5%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-5
0.5%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 23Similar
Q4 9:26
4TH & 7
OWN 23
-3
0.4%
James Burnip punt for 62 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
0.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 4 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+1
0.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 1 yd to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+9
0.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted Bray Hubbard return for no gain to the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
10 plays · 47 yds · 5:19100% → 100%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
0.3%
Richard Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+3
0.3%
Richard Young run for 3 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+15
0.3%
LSU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Bradyn Swinson) to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
0.2%
Richard Young run for 6 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+2
0.2%
Richard Young run for 2 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
0.2%
Daniel Hill run for 3 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
0.2%
Daniel Hill run for 1 yd to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+1
0.2%
Ty Simpson run for 1 yd to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+9
0.2%
Richard Young run for 9 yds to the LSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.1%
Richard Young run for 8 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.1%
Kaleb Jackson run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
0.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 10 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
0.1%
Kaleb Jackson run for 2 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+17
0.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 17 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+29
0.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 15 yds to the ALA 27 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Roughing Passer (14 Yards) to the ALA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
0.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 1 yd to the ALA 12Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
0.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
0.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 12 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:05
Jalen Milroe run for 19 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-8.7
TD · Q2 2:35
Jalen Milroe run for 10 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q1 2:06
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com