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MASS

Massachusetts 20 at Mississippi State 45

MSST
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.4MSST 98.9%Jacob Lurie 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 35 · Q4 12:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:05 · Jacob Lurie 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior+10.0Home team on offense+28.8Score differential+21.3Garbage-time factor+7.6Blowout margin+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:27: Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +3.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 9:05: Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 19 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +3.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:56: Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +6.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:11: Johnnie Daniels run for 36 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +6.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:25: Davon Booth run for 30 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:59MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:34MSST 4th & 19 at MSST 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:13MASS 4th & 7 at MSST 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:21MASS 4th & 9 at MSST 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:37MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:06MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:28MASS 4th & 10 at MSST 38, down 18
    Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:05MASS 4th & 8 at MSST 17, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:17MSST 4th & 6 at MASS 6, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:39MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 42, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:23MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:27MSST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:05MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:56MSST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:11MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:25MSST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:51MSST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:17MASS Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0190% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.8%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 25Similar
Q1 14:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
89.6%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 6:3210% → 14%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
89.6%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 13 yds to the MASS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
89.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Sterling Galban for 5 yds to the MASS 42Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
89.2%
Jalen John run for 1 yd to the MASS 43Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+6
89.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to T.Y. Harding for 6 yds to the MASS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
88.8%
CJ Hester run for 6 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+2
88.5%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 2 yds to the MSST 43Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+5
88.3%
CJ Hester run for 5 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
88.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+20
88.1%
Brandon Campbell run for 20 yds to the MSST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
87.8%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 3 yds to the MSST 15Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+3
87.5%
Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds to the MSST 12Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+9
87.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Brandon Campbell for 9 yds to the MSST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.7%
Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:4186% → 85%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
86.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 5 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-5
86.0%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 22Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-3
85.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 19Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 13
OWN 19
-6
85.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Jalen Stewart and Louce Julien for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 13Similar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 19
OWN 13
+7
84.9%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 38 yds , T.Y. Harding returns for 7 yds to the MSST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 4:1416% → 19%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
84.5%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 9 yds to the MSST 35Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
83.9%
Jalen John run for 3 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
83.5%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 12 yds to the MSST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
83.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jaelyn Lay for 10 yds to the MSST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
82.5%
Jackson Paradis run for 1 yd to the MSST 9Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
81.9%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 2 yds to the MSST 7Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
81.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
81.5%
Jacob Lurie 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 1:3881% → 85%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
81.3%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 42Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+14
80.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 14 yds to the MASS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
81.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
80.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+15
80.5%
Massachusetts Penalty, Roughing the Passer on CRAIG, Derrieon enforced (Derrieon Craig) to the MASS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
81.1%
(14:42) VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass deep to the right incomplete intended for COLEMAN JR., Kevin thrown to the UMASS0, clock 14:39. PENALTY UMASS Pass Interference on CAMERON JR., Jerrod enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the UMASS4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6INT
7 plays · 37 yds · 3:0617% → 19%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.2%
(14:27) PHOMMACHANH, Taisun pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LADSON JR., Frank thrown to the MSU47, clock 14:22. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on LANIER, Brylan enforced 15 yards to the UMASS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
82.6%
CJ Hester run for 8 yds to the MASS 48Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
82.1%
CJ Hester run for 4 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
81.7%
CJ Hester run for 4 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
81.4%
Brandon Campbell run for 4 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+2
81.0%
Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
80.6%
Taisun Phommachanh pass intercepted Brylan Lanier return for no gain to the MSST 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 97 yds · 2:1182% → 85%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+35
81.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for 35 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
82.2%
(10:51) VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass deep to the right intercepted by STEWART, Jalen at the UMASS45 broken up by EDWARDS, RJ. Stewart return for 0 yards to the UMASS45, End of Play, clock 10:44. PENALTY UMASS Roughing the Passer on BECKWITH, Aaron enforced 15 yards from the MSU38 to the UMASS47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
82.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 12 yds to the MASS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
83.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 7 yds to the MASS 28Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+1
82.9%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the MASS 27Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+8
82.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 8 yds to the MASS 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
85.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 19 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:4416% → 17%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
83.9%
Brandon Campbell run for 12 yds to the MASS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
83.3%
Brandon Campbell run for 4 yds to the MASS 41Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
82.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
83.0%
Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Nic Mitchell) to the MASS 46Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+7
82.7%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 7 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
82.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
82.2%
CJ Hester run for 1 yd to the MSST 46Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
82.3%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
83.2%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:1984% → 90%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
83.6%
Kevin Coleman Jr. run for a loss of 8 yards to the MSST 12Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+15
83.2%
Massachusetts Penalty, Personal Foul (Lake Ellis) to the MASS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
84.7%
Xavier Gayten run for a loss of 3 yards to the MASS 48Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+7
83.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 7 yds to the MASS 41Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+6
84.1%
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the MASS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
84.5%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MASS 30Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
84.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 4 yds to the MASS 26Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+8
83.8%
Davon Booth run for 8 yds to the MASS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
84.3%
(02:23) VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass to the left incomplete intended for BURNSIDE, Braylon thrown to the UMASS4, clock 02:22. PENALTY UMASS Offsides enforced 5 yards from the UMASS18 to the UMASS13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 5
OPP 13
0
84.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+11
84.3%
Davon Booth run for 11 yds to the MASS 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:1911% → 11%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
88.8%
Jalen John run for a loss of 3 yards to the MASS 22Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
88.6%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jalen John for 6 yds to the MASS 28Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
88.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+1
89.0%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 37 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 1 yd to the MSST 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:2989% → 89%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+26
88.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 26 yds to the MASS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
89.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Jalen Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the MASS 43Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+8
90.5%
Johnnie Daniels run for 8 yds to the MASS 35Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-8
90.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Kofi Asare for a loss of 8 yards to the MASS 43Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
88.7%
Massachusetts Penalty, False Start (Jakobie Keeney-James) to the MASS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5211% → 11%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
88.8%
Ahmad Haston run for 3 yds to the MASS 23Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
88.8%
Ahmad Haston run for 9 yds to the MASS 32Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
88.6%
CJ Hester run for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 31Similar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
89.1%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 37 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for no gain to the MSST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:4789% → 96%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
89.3%
Massachusetts Penalty, Personal Foul (Aaron Beckwith) to the MASS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
90.0%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MASS 43Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-1
90.0%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 44Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+8
89.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for 8 yds to the MASS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
95.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for 36 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 5:436% → 5%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
AJ Hairston pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Jalen John run for no gain to the MASS 25Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.8%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Owen Anderson for 11 yds to the MASS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
94.3%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 10 yds to the MASS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
94.3%
AJ Hairston run for 3 yds to the MASS 49Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
94.2%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 6 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+7
94.1%
Jalen John run for 7 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.5%
AJ Hairston pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
94.5%
Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-5
94.5%
AJ Hairston sacked by Kai McClendon and Deonte Anderson for a loss of 5 yards to the MSST 38Similar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
95.1%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:5896% → 99%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
96.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 4 yds to the MSST 24Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+12
96.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 12 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
96.4%
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+17
96.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 17 yds to the MASS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
96.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
96.7%
(03:36) VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass to the right incomplete intended for BOOTH, Davon thrown to the UMASS30, clock 03:32. PENALTY UMASS Pass Interference on TURNER, Myles enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the UMASS30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.3%
Davon Booth run for 30 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 6:201% → 1%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.0%
Ahmad Haston pass complete to Jalen John for 13 yds to the MASS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.0%
Ahmad Haston run for no gain to the MASS 38Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.0%
Ahmad Haston run for 7 yds to the MASS 45Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+6
99.1%
Ahmad Haston pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 6 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.1%
Jalen John run for 1 yd to the MSST 48Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+15
99.2%
Mississippi State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Isaac Smith) to the MSST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
99.1%
Jalen John run for 8 yds to the MSST 22Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+3
99.1%
Jackson Paradis run for 3 yds to the MSST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
99.1%
Jackson Paradis run for 1 yd to the MSST 18Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+1
99.2%
Ahmad Haston pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 1 yd to the MSST 17Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
99.3%
Ahmad Haston pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
98.9%
Jacob Lurie 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 1:4899% → 100%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
98.9%
(12:05) VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass up the middle complete for 7 yards to COLEMAN JR., Kevin caught at the MSU32 and advanced to the MSU32 (MCGILL, Jeremiah), clock 12:00. PENALTY MSU Personal Foul on JACKSON, Jacoby enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the MSU25 to the MSU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+55
98.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 55 yds to the MASS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
99.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 17 yds to the MASS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
99.0%
(11:04) VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass to the left incomplete intended for BURNSIDE, Braylon thrown to the UMASS7, clock 11:02. PENALTY UMASS Pass Interference on ELLIS, Lake enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the UMASS10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.0%
Johnnie Daniels run for 4 yds to the MASS 6Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
99.6%
Kyle Ferrie 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:380% → 0%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.6%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Sterling Galban for 9 yds to the MASS 34Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.6%
Brandon Campbell run for 4 yds to the MASS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
99.6%
AJ Hairston sacked by Ty Cooper for a loss of 3 yards to the MASS 35Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+7
99.6%
Brandon Campbell run for 7 yds to the MASS 42Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
99.7%
AJ Hairston pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+10
99.7%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 46 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 10 yds to the MSST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:35100% → 100%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
99.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Sanfrisco Magee for 6 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+72
99.9%
Xavier Gayten run for 72 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:340% → 0%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
CJ Hester run for 7 yds to the MASS 32Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
CJ Hester run for 5 yds to the MASS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Ahmad Haston pass complete to T.Y. Harding for 5 yds to the MASS 42Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
CJ Hester run for 3 yds to the MASS 45Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-2
99.9%
CJ Hester run for a loss of 2 yards to the MASS 43Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+5
99.9%
(03:24) KOLODZIEY, CJ punt 39 yards to the MSU18, fair catch by WALLEY, Jaden, clock 03:18. PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UMASS43 to the UMASS48 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
AJ Hairston run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 8
50
+6
99.9%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Sterling Galban for 6 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+17
99.9%
CJ Hester run for 17 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.9%
AJ Hairston pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
99.9%
(01:51) HAIRSTON, AJ pass deep to the left incomplete intended for GIBSON, Jacquon thrown to the MSU5, clock 01:49. PENALTY MSU Offsides on CLARK, Corey enforced 5 yards from the MSU27 to the MSU22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+5
99.9%
CJ Hester run for 5 yds to the MSST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
99.9%
AJ Hairston pass complete to CJ Hester for 16 yds to the MSST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
99.8%
AJ Hairston run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 4Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.7%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 4 yds for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
99.8%
(00:13) [NHSG] Kneel down by PARSON, Chris at MSU11 (team loss of 2), clock 00:03.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:56
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+6
TD · Q3 11:11
Johnnie Daniels run for 36 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+6
TD · Q2 14:27
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com