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VAN

Vanderbilt 17 at Auburn 7

AUB
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:16 · Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 41 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior+19.5Home team on offense−3.6Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:45: Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 30 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK) — AUB win probability +11.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:22: Moni Jones run for 6 yds to the AUB 15 — VAN win probability +7.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 1:05: Brock Taylor 31 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +6.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:04: Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the AUB 29 — AUB win probability +5.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:18: Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +16.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 11VAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:05AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:32VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:12AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:04VAN 4th & 5 at AUB 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:56AUB 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:22AUB 4th & 3 at VAN 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−0.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:21VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:16AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.6%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:30AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.6%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:20VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:18AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:12VAN 4th & 16 at VAN 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−3.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:01VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:03AUB 4th & 4 at VAN 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.6%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−8.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:22VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.1%−3.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:12VAN 4th & 6 at AUB 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%−3.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:27AUB 4th & 11 at AUB 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−6.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:05VAN 4th & 2 at AUB 13, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%−2.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−16.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:17AUB 4th & 16 at AUB 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−4.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:20AUB 4th & 4 at VAN 34, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−2.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:53VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:50VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:45AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:18VAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:5479% → 78%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
78.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 15 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
78.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
78.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 6 yds to the AUB 46Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-1
78.6%
Jeremiah Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 45Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
78.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2622% → 22%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
78.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 20Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
78.2%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the VAN 20Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
78.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
78.2%
Jesse Mirco punt for 50 yds, downed at the AUB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1078% → 77%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
78.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
77.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-1
77.7%
Payton Thorne sacked by Khordae Sydnor for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 31Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
77.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0223% → 24%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
77.5%
Eli Stowers run for a loss of 4 yards to the VAN 29Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+21
77.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
50
+7
76.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 7 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-5
76.4%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AUB 48Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
76.4%
AJ Newberry run for 3 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
76.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
76.4%
Jesse Mirco punt for 44 yds, downed at the AUB 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:5777% → 76%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
76.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 9 yds to the AUB 10Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 1
OWN 10
+4
76.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+29
76.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 29 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
76.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
76.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+5
76.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 3
50
0
76.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 31 yds, downed at the VAN 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:5424% → 31%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+31
75.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
50
+2
74.4%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+16
73.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 16 yds to the AUB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
73.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
73.3%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+28
68.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to AJ Newberry for 28 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:2770% → 69%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
70.4%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 27 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
71.2%
(00:05) COBB, Jeremiah rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the VANDY35 (LONGWELL, Bryan), clock 00:00. PENALTY AUBURN Holding on MILLER, Izavion enforced 10 yards from the VANDY38 to the VANDY48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 20
OPP 48
-3
70.4%
Payton Thorne sacked by Miles Capers for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 49Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 23
OWN 49
+14
69.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Robert Lewis for 14 yds to the VAN 37Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+6
70.1%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the VAN 31Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
69.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5732% → 32%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
67.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
67.8%
Chase Gillespie run for 5 yds to the VAN 36Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
67.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
67.6%
Jesse Mirco punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:2868% → 75%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
67.6%
Damari Alston run for 5 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
67.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 5 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
67.1%
Damari Alston run for 8 yds to the AUB 38Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+1
68.0%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 39Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
66.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 39Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+2
65.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
66.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
65.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+6
63.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 49Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+21
63.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 21 yds to the VAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
74.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 30 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2330% → 29%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.9%
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 24Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
69.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
70.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+7
71.0%
Jesse Mirco punt for 56 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 7 yds to the AUB 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5472% → 70%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
72.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 4 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
72.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
71.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 35Similar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
70.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 5 yds · 1:5831% → 31%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
68.8%
Moni Jones run for 2 yds to the VAN 9Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+3
68.5%
Moni Jones run for 3 yds to the VAN 12Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+6
68.7%
Moni Jones run for 6 yds to the VAN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
67.3%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the VAN 23Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-15
66.7%
(01:37) PAVIA, Diego pass up the middle complete for 15 yards to STOWERS, Eli caught at the VANDY35 and advanced to the VANDY38 (MAUSI, Dorian), clock 01:30. PENALTY VANDY Face mask on HANSEN, Gunnar enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards from the VANDY23 to the VANDY12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 16
OWN 12
0
67.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 16
OWN 12
0
68.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 16
OWN 12
+5
69.1%
Jesse Mirco punt for 60 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 5 yds to the AUB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3370% → 70%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
70.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 6 yds to the AUB 39Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+9
71.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 9 yds to the AUB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
72.0%
(00:36) QB Keeper THORNE, Payton rush to the left for a gain of 12 yards to the VANDY40, out of bounds, clock 00:31. PENALTY AUBURN Holding on LEW, Connor enforced 10 yards from the AUBURN48 to the AUBURN38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 20
OWN 38
-3
70.1%
Payton Thorne sacked by Aeneas DiCosmo for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5833% → 32%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.8%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
66.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 31Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
66.3%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 30Similar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+17
67.8%
Jesse Mirco punt for 59 yds , Malcolm Simmons returns for 17 yds to the AUB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15MISSED FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:4869% → 69%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
69.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the AUB 36Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+22
70.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 22 yds to the VAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
71.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 10 yds to the VAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
72.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the VAN 27Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-2
72.2%
Jeremiah Cobb run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 29Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+3
70.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Perry Thompson for 3 yds to the VAN 26Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
68.9%
Towns McGough 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 4:4935% → 38%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
64.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
64.9%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the VAN 26Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+10
65.7%
(08:14) PAVIA, Diego pass up the middle incomplete intended for STOWERS, Eli thrown to the VANDY35; QB hurried by FAULK, Keldric, clock 08:09. PENALTY AUBURN Holding on CRAWFORD, Jay enforced 10 yards from the VANDY26 to the VANDY36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
63.1%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the VAN 40Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
61.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
62.5%
(07:23) PAVIA, Diego pass short to the left incomplete intended for HOSKINS, Richie broken up by FAULK, Keldric at the VANDY45, clock 07:20. PENALTY Before the snap, AUBURN Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the VANDY40 to the VANDY45. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
61.1%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the VAN 45Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+5
62.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
50
0
59.7%
AJ Newberry run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
50
0
59.5%
Eli Stowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 10
50
+4
61.0%
AJ Newberry run for 4 yds to the AUB 46Similar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
61.6%
Jesse Mirco punt for 44 yds, downed at the AUB 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4166% → 63%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
65.9%
Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the AUB 3Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 9
OWN 3
-2
65.5%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 1Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 11
OWN 1
0
63.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:27
4TH & 11
OWN 1
+39
62.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 59 yds , Martel Hight returns for 39 yds to the AUB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1744% → 49%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
55.6%
Moni Jones run for 6 yds to the AUB 15Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+2
55.1%
Moni Jones run for 2 yds to the AUB 13Similar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 2
OPP 13
0
56.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+31
50.7%
Brock Taylor 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:4756% → 52%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.0%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
56.2%
Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the AUB 30Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
54.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 12 yds to the AUB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
58.6%
Malcolm Simmons run for a loss of 10 yards to the AUB 32Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 20
OWN 32
0
54.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+4
52.6%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the AUB 36Similar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
51.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20TD
17 plays · 78 yds · 8:5150% → 91%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
49.9%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 26Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
46.6%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+4
46.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
42.1%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the VAN 36Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+8
40.7%
(10:24) PAVIA, Diego pass up the middle incomplete intended for STOWERS, Eli thrown to the VANDY44, clock 10:23. PENALTY AUBURN Pass Interference on WOODEN, Caleb enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the VANDY44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
38.7%
Chase Gillespie run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 4
50
+22
37.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 22 yds to the AUB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
35.0%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Chase Mitchell) to the AUB 33Similar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+6
35.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chase Gillespie for 6 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+8
33.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 8 yds to the AUB 19Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+7
34.3%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the AUB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
30.3%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the AUB 8Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
26.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the AUB 8Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+4
31.4%
(05:18) TAYLOR, Brock field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at AUBURN16], score nullified by penalty, clock 05:14. PENALTY AUBURN Personal Foul on FAULK, Keldric enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the AUBURN8 to the AUBURN4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
27.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
25.5%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the AUB 4Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
9.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21MISSED FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:5511% → 8%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
11.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 17 yds to the AUB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
12.4%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
12.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 4 yds to the AUB 49Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+11
10.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 11 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
9.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 6 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
11.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
9.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+52
8.2%
Towns McGough 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:1893% → 96%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
6.6%
Nate Johnson run for 2 yds to the VAN 36Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+1
5.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the VAN 37Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
5.1%
Nate Johnson run for no gain to the VAN 37Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
3.9%
Jesse Mirco punt for 46 yds, downed at the AUB 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · 16 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
3.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 16 yds Rivaldo Fairweather fumbled, recovered by VAN De'Rickey Wright D. Wright return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:2197% → 97%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
3.0%
(01:36) [NH] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at AUBURN35 (team loss of 2), clock 01:29.Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-1
3.1%
(00:56) Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at AUBURN36 (team loss of 1), clock 00:51.Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 13
OPP 36
-2
3.0%
(00:15) Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at AUBURN38 (team loss of 2), clock 00:11.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:18
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
-16.3
TD · Q2 6:45
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 30 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)
+11.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:22
Moni Jones run for 6 yds to the AUB 15
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com