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MISS

Ole Miss 63 at Arkansas 31

ARK
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:02 · JJ Pegues run for 2 yds to the ARK 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense−2.4Score differential−1.0Pregame prior−20.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:28: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 4 yds for a TD Ole Miss Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dae'Quan Wright) to the ARK 0 (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +3.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:10: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 62 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +5.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:10: Timeout Arkansas, clock 12:10 — ARK win probability +7.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:07: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 66 yds for a TD — MISS win probability +7.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:50: Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — ARK win probability +15.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:10ARK 4th & 18 at ARK 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:02MISS 4th & 1 at ARK 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.2%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:43MISS 4th & 1 at ARK 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:19ARK 4th & 15 at MISS 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:02MISS 4th & 1 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.4%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:18ARK 4th & 20 at ARK 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:44ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:29MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 48, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:18ARK 4th & 14 at MISS 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:34ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 20, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:59MISS 4th & 22 at ARK 49, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:59MISS 4th & 22 at ARK 49, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MISS made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 6:56MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:28MISS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:10MISS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:07MISS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:50ARK Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:05MISS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:00MISS Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:49ARK Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:59MISS Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:48MISS Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 2:22ARK Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:47MISS Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 3:14ARK Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:4325% → 26%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
25.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jordan Anthony for 18 yds to the ARK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
25.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
25.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the ARK 49Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-10
25.9%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Taylen pass complete short right to Armstrong,Andrew caught at MIS41, for 9 yards to the MIS42 (Amos,Trey) PENALTY ARK Holding (Braun,Joshua) 10 yards from ARK49 to ARK39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 14
OWN 39
-4
26.0%
Taylen Green sacked by TJ Dottery for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 35Similar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 18
OWN 35
+6
26.3%
Devin Bale punt for 48 yds , Micah Davis returns for 6 yds to the MISS 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2DOWNS
16 plays · 76 yds · 4:1474% → 72%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
26.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 24 yds to the MISS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
26.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 4 yds to the ARK 49Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+15
26.5%
(11:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Dart,Jaxson pass incomplete deep left to Wright,Dae'Quan thrown to ARK11 PENALTY ARK Pass Interference (Singletary,Jaheim) 15 yards from ARK49 to ARK34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
26.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
26.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+8
26.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the ARK 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
26.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 3 yds to the ARK 16Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
26.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the ARK 13Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 4
OPP 13
-15
27.3%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Dart,Jaxson pass complete short right to Wells Jr.,Antwane caught at ARK00, for 13 yards to the ARK00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:29 PENALTY MIS Pass Interference (Wells Jr.,Antwane) 15 yards from ARK13 to ARK28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 19
OPP 28
+5
27.6%
PENALTY ARK Offside (Jackson,Landon) 5 yards from ARK28 to ARK23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 14
OPP 23
+13
27.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 13 yds to the ARK 10Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
27.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the ARK 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
27.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the ARK 5Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
27.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the ARK 5Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
27.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 4 yds to the ARK 1Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
28.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the ARK 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3928% → 26%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
28.3%
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the ARK 1Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
28.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
25.8%
Princely Umanmielen 0 Yd Fumble Return (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:2626% → 27%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
25.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 20 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
26.5%
PENALTY ARK False Start (Carmona,Fernando) 5 yards from ARK45 to ARK40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+14
26.1%
Taylen Green run for 14 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+14
26.9%
Taylen Green run for 14 yds to the MISS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
26.6%
Malachi Singleton run for 1 yd to the MISS 33Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+5
26.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the MISS 38Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+1
25.7%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 1 yd to the MISS 37Similar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 15
OPP 37
+55
26.8%
Matthew Shipley 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:3971% → 76%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
28.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 16 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
28.0%
(02:51) PENALTY MIS False Start (Buelow,Julius) 5 yards from MIS41 to MIS36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
28.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+5
29.0%
PENALTY ARK Disconcerting Signals (Clark,Hudson) 5 yards from MIS36 to MIS41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
28.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 7 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
28.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 1
50
+2
29.0%
JJ Pegues run for 2 yds to the ARK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
28.3%
(00:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Dart,Jaxson pass incomplete deep middle to Watkins,Jordan thrown to ARK06 PENALTY ARK Pass Interference (Metcalf,TJ) 15 yards from ARK48 to ARK33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
27.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
27.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+23
28.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 23 yds to the ARK 10 for a 1ST down Arkansas Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
27.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the ARK 11Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
28.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 7 yds to the ARK 4Similar
Q2 14:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
24.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 4 yds for a TD Ole Miss Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dae'Quan Wright) to the ARK 0 (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:0125% → 23%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
24.5%
Taylen Green sacked by Zxavian Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 20Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
24.0%
Braylen Russell run for 5 yds to the ARK 15Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+5
23.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 5 yds to the ARK 20Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-5
23.4%
PENALTY ARK Delay Of Game 5 yards from ARK20 to ARK15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
23.4%
Devin Bale punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
18.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 62 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1725% → 25%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
25.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
25.1%
Taylen Green run for no gain to the ARK 28Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
25.1%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
25.0%
Devin Bale punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:2882% → 90%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
18.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+66
10.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 66 yds for a TDSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
10.0%
Davis,Caden kick attempt good (H: Pollock,Charlie, LS: Short,Carter) PENALTY MIS Holding (Harris,Zxavian) 10 yards from ARK03 to ARK13. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:096% → 19%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
6.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 9 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
5.0%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the ARK 33Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
4.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+43
5.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 43 yds to the MISS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
4.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the MISS 22Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+9
4.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 9 yds to the MISS 13Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+5
3.1%
Braylen Russell run for 5 yds to the MISS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
3.6%
Braylen Russell run for 2 yds to the MISS 6Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
18.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:1385% → 85%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
15.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+17
15.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 17 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
14.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MISS 48Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
13.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
14.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
14.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 2:0716% → 14%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.2%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
15.8%
Taylen Green run for 12 yds to the ARK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
15.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 20 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
16.2%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+14
16.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 14 yds to the MISS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
16.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 11 yds to the MISS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-8
17.4%
Taylen Green sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 8 yards to the MISS 31Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 18
OPP 31
+9
16.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 9 yds to the MISS 22Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 9
OPP 22
-5
15.1%
Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+45
13.9%
Matthew Shipley 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 1:0691% → 97%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
9.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 18 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
8.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 9 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+1
7.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
8.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the ARK 42Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-5
8.1%
PENALTY MIS False Start (Scott,Gerquan) 5 yards from ARK42 to ARK47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+27
8.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 27 yds to the ARK 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
7.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 14 yds to the ARK 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
6.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the ARK 3Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
2.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 14 yds to the ARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5296% → 98%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.2%
Domonique Thomas run for 3 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+34
4.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 34 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
3.6%
Domonique Thomas run for 2 yds to the ARK 36Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
3.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+31
3.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 31 yds to the ARK 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
3.2%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Dart,Jaxson pass complete short right to Lee,Cayden caught at ARK06, for 0 yards to the ARK05 (Clark,Hudson) PENALTY MIS Personal Foul (Aka,Josh) 15 yards from ARK05 to ARK20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+9
3.1%
Domonique Thomas run for 9 yds to the ARK 11Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
2.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 11 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:032% → 2%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the ARK 25Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
1.8%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
50
+8
2.0%
Rodney Hill run for 8 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+29
1.8%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Rodney Hill for 29 yds to the MISS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
2.0%
Malachi Singleton run for 13 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:3798% → 99%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
2.3%
Domonique Thomas run for 6 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+9
2.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 9 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+58
2.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 58 yds to the ARK 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
1.7%
Domonique Thomas run for 3 yds to the ARK 3Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the ARK 1Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.2%
JJ Pegues run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:161% → 1%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the ARK 26Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
0.7%
Malachi Singleton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-6
0.7%
Malachi Singleton sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 6 yards to the ARK 20Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
0.7%
Devin Bale punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:3899% → 99%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
1.0%
Domonique Thomas run for 2 yds to the MISS 38Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+62
0.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 62 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:141% → 1%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
0.5%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 19 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
0.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 23 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
0.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the MISS 34Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
0.4%
Malachi Singleton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+26
0.4%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Luke Hasz for 17 yds to the MISS 17 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (Walter Nolen) to the MISS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
0.5%
Rodney Hill run for 6 yds to the MISS 2Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.5%
Rodney Hill run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:0499% → 99%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
0.7%
Domonique Thomas run for 6 yds to the MISS 36Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+12
0.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 12 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
0.6%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Dart,Jaxson pass incomplete deep middle to Wells Jr.,Antwane thrown to ARK00 PENALTY ARK Pass Interference (Slaughter,Doneiko) 15 yards from MIS48 to ARK37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-8
0.6%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Landon Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the ARK 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 18
OPP 45
0
0.6%
Domonique Thomas run for no gain to the ARK 45Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 18
OPP 45
+1
0.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the ARK 44Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 17
OPP 44
-5
0.6%
PENALTY MIS Delay Of Game 5 yards from ARK44 to ARK49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:59
4TH & 22
OPP 49
0
0.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 15Similar
Q4 13:59
4TH & 22
OPP 49
0
0.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
0.2%
Malachi Singleton sacked by Kam Franklin for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 11Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+2
0.2%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 2 yds to the ARK 13Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+69
0.2%
Malachi Singleton run for 69 yds to the MISS 18Similar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
0.2%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 45 yds Isaac TeSlaa fumbled, recovered by ARKSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:29100% → 100%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
0.4%
Domonique Thomas run for 9 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
0.4%
Domonique Thomas run for 1 yd to the MISS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
0.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MISS 36Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
0.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
0.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 8 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
0.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
0.2%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 22 yds to the ARK 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
0.2%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Micah Davis for 13 yds to the ARK 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
0.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the ARK 12Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
0.1%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 12 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
0.1%
Malachi Singleton sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the ARK 17Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+12
0.1%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 12 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
0.0%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 11 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
0.0%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Singleton,Malachi rush left for 60 yards gain to the MIS00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:59 PENALTY ARK Illegal Formation 5 yards from ARK40 to ARK35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+24
0.0%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 24 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.0%
Malachi Singleton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+14
0.0%
Malachi Singleton run for 14 yds to the MISS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
0.0%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Singleton,Malachi pass incomplete short left to Armstrong,Andrew thrown to MIS15 PENALTY MIS Pass Interference (Graves Jr.,Chris) 11 yard from MIS27 to MIS16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
0.0%
Malachi Singleton run for 6 yds to the MISS 22 Malachi Singleton fumbled, recovered by ARK Rashod Dubinion , return for 5 yds to the MISS 22Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 16
OPP 22
+22
0.0%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Luke Hasz for 22 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25END OF GAME
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.1%
Jason Albritton run for 3 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
0.1%
Jason Albritton run for no gain to the MISS 28Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
0.1%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Simmons,Austin pass incomplete deep middle to Davis,Micah thrown to ARK36 PENALTY ARK Pass Interference (Clark,Hudson) 15 yards from MIS28 to MIS43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
0.1%
Jason Albritton run for 1 yd to the MISS 44Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+1
0.1%
Jason Albritton run for 1 yd to the MISS 45Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+3
0.1%
Jason Albritton run for 3 yds to the MISS 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:50
Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q2 10:07
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 66 yds for a TD
-7.5
TD · Q2 12:10
Timeout Arkansas, clock 12:10
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com