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TEX

Texas 27 at Vanderbilt 24

VAN
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of GameTD+11.2VAN 22.3%Diego Pavia pass complete to JuniorSherrill for 3 yds for a TD (BrockTaylor KICK)AWAY 24 - HOME 17 · Q3 3:11
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:11 · Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 3 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior−16.3Home team on offense−8.2Garbage-time factor−4.2Score differential−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:04: Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 25 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +3.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Brock Taylor 54 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +3.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:11: Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 3 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +11.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:57: Bert Auburn 23 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +3.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:46: Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +32.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 2:58VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:31TEX 4th & 19 at VAN 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:54VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:38TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:27VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:54TEX 4th & 15 at VAN 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:23VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:11VAN 4th & 3 at TEX 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:22TEX 4th & 18 at TEX 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−3.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:58VAN 4th & 6 at TEX 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:15TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:13VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.6%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:57TEX 4th & 5 at VAN 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−4.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:40VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:37TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:13TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:04TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:11VAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:46VAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:5090% → 89%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
10.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the TEX 11Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+5
10.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 5 yds to the TEX 16Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+2
10.8%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the TEX 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
11.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 7 yds to the TEX 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:5111% → 14%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
11.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 9 yds to the TEX 22Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+2
11.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the TEX 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
12.1%
AJ Newberry run for 4 yds to the TEX 16Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-2
12.4%
Eli Stowers run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 18Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
13.7%
Diego Pavia run for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0387% → 86%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
13.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for a loss of 6 yards to the TEX 19Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+14
13.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 14 yds to the TEX 33Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+18
14.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 18 yds to the VAN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
14.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the VAN 46Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+31
14.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 31 yds to the VAN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
14.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 3 yds to the VAN 12Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+6
14.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 6 yds to the VAN 6Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
15.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 3 yds to the VAN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
13.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 3 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:3915% → 15%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.5%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
15.0%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the VAN 33Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
15.3%
AJ Newberry run for 1 yd to the VAN 34Similar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
15.4%
(03:19) SHERRILL, Junior rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the VANDY43 (BARRON, Jahdae), clock 03:13. PENALTY Before the snap, VANDY Illegal Formation on SKINNER JR., Quincy enforced 5 yards from the VANDY34 to the VANDY29. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+24
15.4%
Jesse Mirco punt for 44 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 24 yds to the VAN 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:3585% → 87%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
15.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Amari Niblack for 20 yds to the VAN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
14.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ryan Wingo for no gain to the VAN 29Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
15.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Amari Niblack for 2 yds to the VAN 27Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+27
13.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6INT
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:5414% → 16%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
14.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 15 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
14.6%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the VAN 47Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+6
15.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for 6 yds to the TEX 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
15.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 15 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:5386% → 84%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
14.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 10 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
14.1%
Quinn Ewers run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 1
50
+6
14.1%
Jaydon Blue run for 6 yds to the VAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
14.2%
Texas Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 16
50
+16
14.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 16 yds to the VAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
14.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 4 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-10
14.4%
Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kelvin Banks Jr.) to the VAN 36Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+3
14.6%
Jaydon Blue run for 3 yds to the VAN 33Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 9
OPP 33
-10
14.9%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Nicholas Rinaldi for a loss of 10 yards to the VAN 43Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 19
OPP 43
0
16.3%
Michael Kern punt for 42 yds, downed at the VAN 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3216% → 15%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
16.0%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the VAN 5Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+1
15.7%
Moni Jones run for 1 yd to the VAN 6Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
15.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 5
OWN 6
-2
15.3%
Jesse Mirco punt for 51 yds , Silas Bolden returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:4785% → 89%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
14.8%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 40Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+4
15.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the TEX 44Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+24
15.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 24 yds to the VAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
14.8%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 7 yds to the VAN 25Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+25
10.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 25 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10FUMBLE
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:5812% → 12%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
11.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 7 yds to the VAN 32Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
12.2%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Offensive Holding (Junior Sherrill) to the VAN 31Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
12.2%
Nate Johnson run for 11 yds to the VAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
12.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the VAN 43Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
12.7%
Nate Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+12
12.2%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Eli Stowers for 12 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
12.3%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the TEX 44Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
12.4%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the TEX 44Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+1
12.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the TEX 43 Sedrick Alexander fumbled, recovered by TEX Trey Moore T. Moore return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:2090% → 89%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
10.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
10.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 6 yds to the TEX 49Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-7
10.3%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Randon Fontenette for a loss of 7 yards to the TEX 42Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
11.1%
Michael Kern punt for 23 yds to VAN 35, out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:3212% → 14%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
11.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 5 yds to the VAN 40Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+13
12.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 13 yds to the TEX 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
11.0%
(00:17) PAVIA, Diego pass to the left complete for 9 yards to SKINNER JR., Quincy caught at the TEXAS39 and advanced to the TEXAS38, End of Play, clock 00:15. PENALTY TEXAS Holding on MUHAMMAD, Malik enforced 10 yards from the TEXAS47 to the TEXAS37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
10.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
10.8%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the TEX 36Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+54
14.2%
Brock Taylor 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2414% → 14%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
14.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 24Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-1
14.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 23Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
14.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
13.7%
Jesse Mirco punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Silas Bolden at the TEX 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:2585% → 90%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
14.6%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 10 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
14.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
50
-5
13.9%
Texas Penalty, False Start (DJ Campbell) to the TEX 45Similar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+9
14.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 9 yds to the VAN 46Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-1
13.9%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 47Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+20
13.6%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 20 yds to the VAN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
12.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 4 yds to the VAN 23Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+6
12.9%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 6 yds to the VAN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
12.8%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Miles Capers and Randon Fontenette for a loss of 5 yards to the VAN 22Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 15
OPP 22
0
12.6%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 15
OPP 22
0
13.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 15
OPP 22
+40
10.0%
Bert Auburn 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2311% → 10%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
10.6%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the VAN 24Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+2
10.1%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the VAN 26Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
10.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+19
10.0%
Jesse Mirco punt for 60 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 19 yds to the TEX 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:4491% → 92%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
9.3%
Jaydon Blue run for 4 yds to the TEX 37Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+7
8.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Silas Bolden for 7 yds to the TEX 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
8.2%
Quinn Ewers pass intercepted Miles Capers return for no gain to the TEX 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:1212% → 22%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
11.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
11.5%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the TEX 35Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
11.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+15
11.0%
(05:30) PAVIA, Diego pass deep to the right incomplete intended for FOUONJI, Loic thrown to the TEXAS13, clock 05:27. PENALTY TEXAS Pass Interference on MUHAMMAD, Malik enforced 15 yards to the TEXAS20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
12.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 12 yds to the TEX 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
11.4%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the TEX 5Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
11.4%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the TEX 3Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
11.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 3 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 13 yds · 4:4682% → 82%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
17.7%
Jaydon Blue run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 24Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
18.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 5 yds to the TEX 29Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
18.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 6 yds to the TEX 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
17.2%
Jaydon Blue run for 6 yds to the TEX 41Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
16.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 5 yds to the TEX 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
16.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the TEX 49Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
16.1%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Offsides (Nicholas Rinaldi) to the VAN 46Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
15.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd to the VAN 45Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-10
14.4%
(14:25) WISNER, Quintrevion rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the VANDY36 (LONGWELL, Bryan;PATTERSON, Langston), clock 14:20. PENALTY TEXAS Holding on MOORE, Trey enforced 10 yards from the VANDY45 to the TEXAS45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-7
15.6%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Khordae Sydnor for a loss of 7 yards to the TEX 38Similar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 18
OWN 38
+15
18.2%
Michael Kern punt for 40 yds , Martel Hight returns for 15 yds to the VAN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:1121% → 20%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
21.0%
Sedrick Alexander run for 6 yds to the VAN 43Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
23.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
23.6%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the VAN 48Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+3
23.5%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the TEX 49Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
22.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for no gain to the TEX 49Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
20.1%
Jesse Mirco punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Silas Bolden at the TEX 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:3784% → 83%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
15.8%
Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kelvin Banks Jr.) to the TEX 18Similar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 19
OWN 18
0
16.6%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 19
OWN 18
0
16.9%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 19
OWN 18
+24
17.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Silas Bolden for 24 yds to the TEX 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
14.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd to the TEX 43Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
14.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
15.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
17.1%
Michael Kern punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:0720% → 10%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
20.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 4 yds to the VAN 21Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+6
20.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 6 yds to the VAN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
19.2%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the VAN 32Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
19.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
18.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 3 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 2
OWN 35
-6
17.4%
Diego Pavia pass intercepted Liona Lefau return for 6 yds to the VAN 29Similar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
9.9%
(05:03) BLUE, Jaydon rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the VANDY22 (PATTERSON, Langston), clock 04:58. PENALTY TEXAS Holding on HELM, Gunnar enforced 10 yards from the VANDY29 to the VANDY39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5890% → 96%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 20
OPP 39
-3
10.3%
Jaydon Blue run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 42Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 23
OPP 42
+14
10.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 14 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+23
9.8%
Jaydon Blue run for 23 yds to the VAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
8.2%
Jaydon Blue run for no gain to the VAN 5Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
7.6%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
7.9%
Jaydon Blue run for no gain to the VAN 5Similar
Q4 1:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
3.9%
Bert Auburn 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:094% → 38%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 3 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
4.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 9 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
4.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 19 yds to the TEX 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
4.5%
(01:18) PAVIA, Diego pass deep to the right intercepted by BLACK, Kobe at the TEXAS28 intended for SKINNER JR., Quincy. Black return for 72 yards to the VANDY0, TOUCHDOWN TEXAS, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:14 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY TEXAS Targeting on BROUGHTON, Vernon enforced 15 yards from the TEXAS44 to the TEXAS29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
5.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
5.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+21
4.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 21 yds to the TEX 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
5.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
38.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3294% → 95%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
5.9%
(00:45) [NH] Kneel down by EWERS, Quinn at VANDY48 (team loss of 1), clock 00:38.Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-1
5.4%
(00:13) [NH] Kneel down by EWERS, Quinn at VANDY49 (team loss of 1), clock 00:01.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:46
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+32.4
TD · Q3 3:11
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 3 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+11.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com