Try the model
LSU

LSU 23 at Texas A&M 38

TA&M
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Kyle Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:53 · Damian Ramos 48 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Home team on offense−1.9Pregame prior+5.1Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:10: Marcel Reed run for 8 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +21.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 1:00: Marcel Reed run for 8 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +16.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:07: Marcel Reed run for 4 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +13.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:57: Garrett Nussmeier run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — LSU win probability +17.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:09: Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +10.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 7LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 14:06LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:40TA&M 4th & 13 at LSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    56.6%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:15LSU 4th & 6 at TA&M 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:53LSU 4th & 13 at TA&M 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:52TA&M 4th & 21 at TA&M 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:01TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:46LSU 4th & 10 at TA&M 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:57TA&M 4th & 3 at LSU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.2%−0.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:54TA&M 4th & 16 at TA&M 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−2.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:18LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:47TA&M 4th & 5 at TA&M 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:53LSU 4th & 7 at TA&M 29, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.4%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−9.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:44TA&M 4th & 9 at LSU 9, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−3.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:54LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 35, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 3:51LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:07TA&M Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:55LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:10TA&M Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:00TA&M Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:07TA&M Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:57LSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.0 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.6%−1.0
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:09TA&M Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5442% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
57.6%
Caden Durham run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
57.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
57.7%
Peyton Todd punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TA&M 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2658% → 58%
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
57.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd to the TA&M 39Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+22
57.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for 7 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Paris Shand) to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
58.0%
Conner Weigman sacked by Greg Penn III for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+3
57.9%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 13
OPP 42
0
57.9%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Noah ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
57.7%
Tyler White punt for 35 yds, downed at the LSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3FG
11 plays · 87 yds · 5:2542% → 43%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
57.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 6 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+10
57.7%
Caden Durham run for 10 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+40
57.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 40 yds to the TA&M 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
57.2%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the TA&M 37Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
57.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+8
57.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 8 yds to the TA&M 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
56.8%
Josh Williams run for 13 yds to the TA&M 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
56.6%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the TA&M 7Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
56.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 1 yd to the TA&M 6Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
56.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Trey'Dez GreenSimilar
Q1 6:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
56.8%
Damian Ramos 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:5457% → 56%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.9%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Cyrus AllenSimilar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
56.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the TA&M 25Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-4
56.0%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Le'Veon Moss for 11 yds Le'Veon Moss fumbled, forced by Sage Ryan, recovered by LSU Jardin Gilbert for a 1ST down Texas A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Dealyn Evans) to the TA&M 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:3044% → 48%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
55.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
55.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 8 yds to the TA&M 13Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+11
56.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 11 yds to the TA&M 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
51.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 2 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4453% → 58%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
53.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
50
0
52.6%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Le'Veon MossSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
50
+2
52.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+11
51.4%
Amari Daniels run for 11 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
51.7%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jabre Barber for 14 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
52.1%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
52.1%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+13
51.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jabre Barber for 13 yds to the LSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
58.3%
Le'Veon Moss run for 7 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7MISSED FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 4:0745% → 44%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
55.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
55.5%
Caden Durham run for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
56.1%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Garrett Nussmeier) to the LSU 15Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+33
56.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 33 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
54.1%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the TA&M 49Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
53.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+21
53.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 21 yds to the TA&M 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
52.9%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the TA&M 26Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-5
52.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Will Campbell) to the TA&M 31Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 13
OPP 31
0
53.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 13
OPP 31
0
54.2%
Caden Durham run for no gain to the TA&M 31Similar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+48
55.7%
Damian Ramos 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 5:0156% → 52%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
55.6%
Amari Daniels run for 5 yds to the TA&M 36Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
56.9%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the TA&M 39Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+2
56.2%
Amari Daniels run for 2 yds to the TA&M 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
56.6%
Conner Weigman run for 4 yds to the TA&M 45Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+8
56.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for 8 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
56.1%
Conner Weigman sacked by Bradyn Swinson for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 13
50
-9
54.3%
EJ Smith run for 1 yd to the TA&M 49 Texas A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kolinu'u Faaiu) to the TA&M 41Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 22
OWN 41
0
53.6%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to EJ SmithSimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 22
OWN 41
-5
52.6%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (TJ Shanahan) to the TA&M 36Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 27
OWN 36
+6
52.2%
EJ Smith run for 6 yds to the TA&M 42Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 21
OWN 42
0
51.6%
Tyler White punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 90 yds · 0:5747% → 57%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
52.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+15
52.9%
Durham, Caden rush for loss of 3 yards to the LSU7, PENALTY TA&M face mask (Thomas, Jayvon) 15 yards to the LSU25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+76
43.0%
Aaron Anderson 76 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:5542% → 40%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.4%
Conner Weigman run for 4 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
42.4%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Noah ThomasSimilar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
41.5%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (Ar'maj Reed-Adams) to the TA&M 24Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
40.7%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Jahdae WalkerSimilar
Q2 4:01
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
40.1%
Tyler White punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:1558% → 60%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
42.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 15 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+30
40.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 30 yds to the TA&M 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
39.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
39.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Caden DurhamSimilar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
39.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
40.4%
Damian Ramos 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:4942% → 40%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
41.9%
Amari Daniels run for 4 yds to the TA&M 36Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
42.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amari Daniels for 5 yds to the TA&M 41Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+10
42.0%
Amari Daniels run for 10 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
43.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 6 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
41.4%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Le'Veon MossSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+1
41.1%
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
39.7%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Le'Veon MossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5163% → 63%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
37.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
37.4%
Josh Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 12
OWN 40
-1
37.5%
Caden Durham run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0638% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.1%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Jahdae WalkerSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
37.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Le'Veon Moss for 15 yds to the TA&M 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
39.0%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Jahdae WalkerSimilar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
38.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd to the TA&M 41Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-7
37.2%
Conner Weigman sacked by Zy Alexander for a loss of 7 yards to the TA&M 34Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
34.3%
Tyler White punt for 52 yds, downed at the LSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3663% → 63%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
36.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 17 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
35.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
35.9%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
35.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
36.8%
Peyton Todd punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TA&M 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3136% → 33%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-6
35.5%
Conner Weigman sacked by Jay'viar Suggs for a loss of 6 yards to the TA&M 22Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 16
OWN 22
+11
34.4%
Amari Daniels run for 11 yds to the TA&M 33Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
33.8%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Cyrus AllenSimilar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
32.9%
Tyler White punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3065% → 65%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
35.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Emery Jones Jr.) to the LSU 8Similar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+7
35.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 7 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+6
34.8%
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 2
OWN 21
-27
34.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted BJ Mayes return for 27 yds to the LSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18TD
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q3 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
55.8%
Marcel Reed run for 8 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19FUMBLE
13 plays · 35 yds · 3:1752% → 54%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
47.8%
Caden Durham run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
48.9%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass incomplete to Lacy, Kyren, PENALTY TA&M pass interference (Lee III, Will) 12 yards to the LSU37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
46.2%
Texas A&M Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Shemar Turner) to the TA&M 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
44.1%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the TA&M 47Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
43.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+15
44.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 15 yds to the TA&M 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
42.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
42.4%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
43.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 7
OPP 29
-11
45.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the TA&M 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LSU Damian RamosSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:5354% → 74%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
53.9%
Marcel Reed run for 4 yds to the TA&M 44Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+17
54.3%
Le'Veon Moss run for 17 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
55.2%
Jabre Barber run for 6 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+20
57.7%
Marcel Reed run for 20 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
57.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd to the LSU 12Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
57.7%
Amari Daniels run for 4 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
74.4%
Marcel Reed run for 8 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1330% → 30%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
70.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted BJ Mayes return for 2 yds to the LSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:4076% → 89%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
75.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Le'Veon Moss for 16 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-8
76.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for 7 yds to the LSU 3 Texas A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Jahdae Walker) to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 0
OPP 18
+4
77.7%
Marcel Reed run for 4 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+10
76.0%
Amari Daniels run for 10 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.1%
Marcel Reed run for 4 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:0513% → 30%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
87.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Emery Jones Jr.) to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
87.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Shelton Sampson Jr.Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+11
87.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 11 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+14
87.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 14 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
86.0%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+21
87.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 21 yds to the TA&M 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+33
86.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 33 yds to the TA&M 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.8%
Caden Durham run for no gain to the TA&M 3Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
87.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 2 yds to the TA&M 1Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 0
OPP 1
0
87.3%
Nussmeier, Garrett rush for no gain to the TA&M1, PENALTY TA&M offside (Williams, Scooby) 0 yards to the TA&M1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.9%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4878% → 95%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+54
78.2%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for 54 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
82.9%
Marcel Reed run for 12 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
84.2%
Marcel Reed run for 6 yds to the LSU 3Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:386% → 6%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
93.8%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Nic Scourton and DJ Hicks for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+7
94.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 7 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.7%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 12 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted Taurean York return for no gain to the LSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:4796% → 98%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
95.6%
Terry Bussey run for 9 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+28
95.9%
Amari Daniels run for 28 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.0%
Amari Daniels run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-5
96.9%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (TJ Shanahan) to the LSU 6Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
96.7%
Marcel Reed run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 10Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
96.7%
Terry Bussey run for 1 yd to the LSU 9Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
98.0%
Randy Bond 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:501% → 1%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 15 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 4 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-9
99.1%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Rylan Kennedy for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:1999% → 99%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 11
OPP 36
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 37Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 12
OPP 37
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:10
Marcel Reed run for 8 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
+21
TD · Q4 9:57
Garrett Nussmeier run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-17.5
TD · Q3 1:00
Marcel Reed run for 8 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
+16.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com