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ARK

Arkansas 58 at Mississippi State 25

MSST
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:22 · Taylen Green pass complete to Braylen Russell for 11 yds to the MSST 7 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Home team on offense−34.9Score differential−18.3Pregame prior−8.8Garbage-time factor−6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:09: Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — ARK win probability +3.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:50: Taylen Green pass complete to Jordan Anthony for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — ARK win probability +9.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:16: Taylen Green pass complete to Andreas Paaske for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — ARK win probability +7.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:57: Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Van Buren Jr. pass to Kelly Akharaiyi for Two-Point Conversion) — MSST win probability +11.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 14:04: Matthew Shipley 29 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +3.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 8:50ARK 4th & 6 at MSST 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    64.4%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:30MSST 4th & 1 at ARK 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:09ARK 4th & 1 at MSST 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−0.7
    84% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:41MSST 4th & 3 at ARK 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%−0.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:48MSST 4th & 6 at ARK 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:30MSST 4th & 1 at ARK 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:20ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 10, up 17
    Close callPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:54MSST 4th & 13 at ARK 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:23ARK 4th & 1 at MSST 13, up 21
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%−1.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:22ARK 4th & 2 at MSST 18, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:04ARK 4th & 11 at MSST 11, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−6.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:28MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 30, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:06ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:45MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:09ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:50ARK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:16ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:51ARK Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:40MSST Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:57MSST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    9.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:51ARK Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:50ARK Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2729% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.7%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-6
28.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 23 Michael Van Buren Jr. fumbled, recovered by ARK Landon Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 1:2071% → 71%
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
28.9%
Braylen Russell run for 9 yds to the MSST 14Similar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+6
29.1%
Braylen Russell run for 6 yds to the MSST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
28.8%
Taylen Green run for 8 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2129% → 30%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.0%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 26Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
29.0%
(12:27) VAN BUREN JR., Michael sacked for a loss of 5 yards at the MSU21 (GREGORY, Eric), clock 12:23. PENALTY ARK Personal Foul on GREGORY, Eric enforced 15 yards from the MSU26 to the MSU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
29.3%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
29.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+54
30.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 54 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4FG
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:5570% → 69%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
30.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 30 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
30.1%
Braylen Russell run for 19 yds to the MSST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
30.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 13 yds to the MSST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
30.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
30.5%
Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the MSST 9Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
30.8%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
30.9%
Matthew Shipley 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:2031% → 32%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
30.9%
Johnnie Daniels run for 13 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
31.3%
Johnnie Daniels run for 3 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
31.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 42Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+15
31.8%
(07:28) VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MOSLEY, Jordan broken up by ROBINSON, Marquise at the ARK26, clock 07:23. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on ROBINSON, Marquise enforced 15 yards to the ARK43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
32.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 12 yds to the ARK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
32.8%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
33.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 3 yds to the ARK 26Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+4
32.7%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the ARK 22Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
32.4%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the ARK 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 3:1768% → 71%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+32
32.3%
Taylen Green run for 32 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
31.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 23 yds to the MSST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
31.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 26Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 13
OPP 26
-5
31.8%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 31Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 18
OPP 31
+16
32.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 16 yds to the MSST 15Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
32.2%
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the MSST 14Similar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+14
28.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7MISSED FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 4:2128% → 28%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.3%
Johnnie Daniels run for 5 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+20
28.5%
Davon Booth run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
50
0
29.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 10
50
0
29.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 10
50
+7
28.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 7 yds to the ARK 43Similar
Q1 0:41
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+5
28.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Ricky Johnson for 5 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
29.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 5 yds to the ARK 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+5
29.9%
Chris Parson run for 5 yds to the ARK 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
30.0%
Chris Parson run for 1 yd to the ARK 27Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+4
29.7%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the ARK 23Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-1
29.0%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 24Similar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
28.2%
Kyle Ferrie 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:5471% → 81%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+20
29.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 20 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
28.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andreas Paaske for 11 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
28.1%
Braylen Russell run for 8 yds to the MSST 37Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+10
27.9%
Taylen Green run for 10 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
18.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jordan Anthony for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 51 yds · 6:1223% → 21%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
22.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for no gain to the MSST 46Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
22.2%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 47Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+13
22.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 13 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
22.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Xavier Gayten for 10 yds to the ARK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
22.5%
Xavier Gayten run for 17 yds to the ARK 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
23.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 7 yds to the ARK 6Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+2
23.0%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the ARK 4Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
22.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 2 yds to the ARK 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
23.1%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the ARK 1Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.5%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the ARK 1Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for no gain to the ARK 1Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
21.2%
Chris Parson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0782% → 82%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
17.6%
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the ARK 4Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+6
17.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 6 yds to the ARK 10Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 3
OWN 10
0
17.7%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 3
OWN 10
+15
18.0%
Devin Bale punt for 53 yds , Kevin Coleman Jr. returns for 15 yds to the ARK 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:1621% → 21%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
20.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 15 yds to the ARK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-14
20.8%
Mississippi State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Seydou Traore) to the ARK 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
20.9%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the ARK 13Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
20.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 8
OPP 13
-5
20.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Stephen Dix Jr. and Cameron Ball for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 18Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+36
21.3%
Kyle Ferrie 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:3881% → 93%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
19.3%
(01:54) GREEN, Taylen pass to the left complete for 50 yards to BRODEN, Tyrone caught at the ARK35 and advanced to the MSU25 (BLANTON, Stone), clock 01:42. PENALTY Before the snap, ARK Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ARK25 to the ARK20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
19.5%
Taylen Green run for 11 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
19.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 5 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
18.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
50
+26
17.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 26 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
17.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 11 yds to the MSST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
15.7%
Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (Brylan Lanier) to the MSST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
15.1%
Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the MSST 1Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andreas Paaske for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.3%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14FG
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:3790% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
9.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 7 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+23
9.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 23 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
8.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 23 yds to the MSST 22 Rashod Dubinion fumbled, recovered by ARK for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
8.4%
Taylen Green run for 8 yds to the MSST 14Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
8.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for no gain to the MSST 14Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+1
7.4%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the MSST 13Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+32
6.5%
Matthew Shipley 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 37 yds · 0:468% → 9%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
7.8%
Davon Booth run for 38 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
8.5%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the ARK 33Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-5
8.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 38 Michael Van Buren Jr. fumbled, recovered by ARK Cameron Ball , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:4294% → 98%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+36
5.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 36 yds to the MSST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
5.4%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
4.9%
Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the MSST 22Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+4
4.7%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the MSST 18 Taylen Green fumbled, recovered by ARK Taylen Green T. Green return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+11
4.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Braylen Russell for 11 yds to the MSST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
4.2%
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the MSST 7Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
2.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andreas Paaske for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:112% → 5%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
1.8%
Johnnie Daniels run for 4 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+29
1.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Johnnie Daniels for 29 yds to the ARK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
1.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 8 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+3
1.9%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the ARK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
5.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 31 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
3.7%
Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MSST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:275% → 17%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+31
5.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 31 yds to the ARK 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
16.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Van Buren Jr. pass to Kelly Akharaiyi for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:5389% → 96%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
11.5%
Braylen Russell run for 17 yds to the ARK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
10.5%
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the ARK 42Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+18
10.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 18 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
9.6%
Braylen Russell run for 11 yds to the MSST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
9.1%
Braylen Russell run for 8 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+11
7.7%
Braylen Russell run for 11 yds to the MSST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
7.4%
(00:34) GREEN, Taylen pass short to the left complete for 3 yards to HASZ, Luke caught at the MSU8 and advanced to the MSU7 (ELLINGTON, Corey), clock 00:29. PENALTY ARK Holding enforced 10 yards from the MSU10 to the MSU20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
-2
7.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
0
7.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
+11
7.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 11 yds to the MSST 11Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
4.0%
Matthew Shipley 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21FUMBLE
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:546% → 5%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
6.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 4 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
5.7%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 30Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
5.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for no gain to the MSST 30Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+7
5.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 7 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
5.0%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+18
5.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 18 yds to the ARK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
5.4%
(11:14) VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass deep to the right incomplete intended for AKHARAIYI, Kelly thrown to the ARK5, clock 11:09. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on SINGLETARY, Jaheim enforced 15 yards to the ARK27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
5.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 7 yds to the ARK 20Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+4
5.8%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the ARK 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
5.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 6 yds to the ARK 10Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+1
5.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the ARK 9Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+8
5.3%
Johnnie Daniels run for 8 yds to the ARK 1 Johnnie Daniels fumbled, recovered by ARK Hudson Clark H. Clark return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22TD
6 plays · 99 yds · 3:0998% → 100%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
2.5%
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the ARK 2Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+75
2.5%
Braylen Russell run for 75 yds to the MSST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
2.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 11 yds to the MSST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
2.0%
(07:02) QB Keeper GREEN, Taylen rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the MSU9 (KEYS JR., Chris), clock 06:57. PENALTY Before the snap, ARK Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the MSU12 to the MSU17. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+2
2.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the MSST 15Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+15
0.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 15 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
0.2%
Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (-3 Yards) to the MSST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
0.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 9 yds to the MSST 3Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
0.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 8 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
0.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
0.1%
Xavier Gayten run for 11 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
0.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Ricky Johnson for 4 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-2
0.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Brad Spence and Eric Gregory for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
0.2%
Malachi Singleton run for 9 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+21
0.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 21 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
0.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 30 Rashod Dubinion fumbled, recovered by ARK Rashod Dubinion R. Dubinion return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+5
0.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-2
0.1%
(00:26) Kneel down by SINGLETON, Malachi at MSU27 (team loss of 2), clock 00:18.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:57
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Van Buren Jr. pass to Kelly Akharaiyi for Two-Point Conversion)
+11.7
TD · Q2 10:50
Taylen Green pass complete to Jordan Anthony for 27 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q2 0:16
Taylen Green pass complete to Andreas Paaske for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com