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Oklahoma 14 at Ole Miss 26

MISS
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:09 · Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 5 yds to the OU 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Pregame prior+1.0Home team on offense+29.3Score differential+10.0Garbage-time factor+16.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:06: Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 9 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +8.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:34: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 24 yds for a TD (Caden Davis PAT MISSED) — MISS win probability +9.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:24: Jackson Arnold run for 7 yds to the OU 18 — OU win probability +3.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 5:20: JJ Pegues run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +9.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 14:51: Caden Davis 42 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +3.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 8OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 7:17OU 4th & 1 at MISS 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    11.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:10MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 10, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:42MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:05OU 4th & 8 at OU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:29MISS 4th & 3 at OU 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.6%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:44MISS 4th & 1 at OU 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.9%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%−1.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−5.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:23OU 4th & 9 at OU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:21OU 4th & 3 at OU 18, down 2
    Close callPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:59OU 4th & 23 at OU 25, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−3.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:51MISS 4th & 2 at OU 24, up 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%−0.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−6.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:00OU 4th & 3 at OU 32, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:37MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 34, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:35OU 4th & 1 at OU 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:35OU 4th & 21 at MISS 24, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%−1.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:02MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 37, up 12
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:47OU 4th & 11 at OU 39, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:09MISS 4th & 11 at OU 32, up 12
    Close callWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.8%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00OU 4th & 22 at OU 37, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:36MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:18OU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:06OU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:34MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:20MISS Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2491% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
90.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 16 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
90.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 40Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+35
90.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 35 yds to the OU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
90.3%
Oklahoma Penalty, Face mask (3 yards) (Billy Bowman Jr.) to the OU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
90.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the OU 9Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
90.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 74 yds · 5:1310% → 11%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
90.3%
Jackson Arnold run for 8 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+15
90.1%
(12:09) ARNOLD, Jackson pass to the left incomplete intended for THOMPSON, Brenen thrown to the OU40; QB hurried by IVEY, Jared and PERKINS, Suntarine, clock 12:06. PENALTY OM Personal Foul on IVEY, Jared enforced 15 yards from the OU32 to the OU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
90.1%
Jovantae Barnes run for 5 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+20
90.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 20 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
89.8%
Jovantae Barnes run for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 30Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+9
89.7%
Jackson Arnold run for 9 yds to the MISS 21Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+10
89.6%
Jackson Arnold run for 10 yds to the MISS 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
89.3%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the MISS 9Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+6
89.2%
Taylor Tatum run for 6 yds to the MISS 3Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+1
89.3%
Taylor Tatum run for 1 yd to the MISS 2Similar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 1
OPP 2
0
89.3%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0390% → 89%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
89.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the MISS 8Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+2
89.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MISS 10Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 2
OWN 10
0
89.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 2
OWN 10
+6
89.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 56 yds , Peyton Bowen returns for 6 yds to the OU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:4211% → 14%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
89.2%
Jackson Arnold run for 4 yds to the OU 44Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+6
89.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
50
-10
88.7%
(05:05) BARNES, Jovantae rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the OM47 (AMOS, Trey), clock 05:00. PENALTY OU Holding on SEXTON, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the OU50 to the OU40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+7
89.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 7 yds to the OU 47Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+7
88.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 7 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+15
88.5%
(03:33) ARNOLD, Jackson pass deep to the right incomplete intended for JORDAN, Jacob thrown to the OM20; QB hurried by PAUL, Chris, clock 03:26. PENALTY OM Horse Collar Tackle on PAUL, Chris enforced 15 yards from the OM46 to the OM31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
88.1%
(03:24) THOMPSON, Brenen pass deep to the right incomplete intended for RAGINS, Zion thrown to the OM1, clock 03:16. PENALTY OM Face mask on PEGUES, JJ enforced 15 yards from the OM31 to the OM16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
88.1%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
88.0%
Taylor Tatum run for 5 yds to the MISS 11Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
85.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 11 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:3687% → 86%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
86.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
86.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 7 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
86.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
86.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
85.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
85.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 45 yds , Peyton Bowen returns for no gain to the OU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:3214% → 16%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
85.6%
Jovantae Barnes run for 5 yds to the OU 15Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
85.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the OU 18Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+2
85.6%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the OU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
85.0%
Jackson Arnold run for 7 yds to the OU 27Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+13
84.6%
Jovantae Barnes run for 13 yds to the OU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
84.2%
Jovantae Barnes run for 4 yds to the OU 44Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-7
83.9%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 7 yards to the OU 37Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+5
84.6%
Jovantae Barnes run for 5 yds to the OU 42Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+38
84.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 38 yds , Micah Davis returns for no gain to the MISS 15 , returns for no gain to the MISS 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:2485% → 84%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
84.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MISS 16Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+4
84.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the MISS 20Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+28
83.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 28 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
85.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 17 yds to the OU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
85.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 5 yds to the OU 30Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
85.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the OU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
85.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the OU 20Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
84.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the OU 15Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-2
84.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 17Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
84.4%
Caden Davis 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:5416% → 17%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
83.8%
Jackson Arnold run for 6 yds to the OU 31Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
83.0%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+14
82.9%
Taylor Tatum run for 14 yds to the OU 48 Taylor Tatum fumbled, recovered by MISS Chris Paul Jr. C. Paul Jr. return for 0 yds fumbled, recovered by OU return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · -11 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-11
81.8%
Jackson Arnold sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the OU 37 Jackson Arnold fumbled, recovered by MISS Jared Ivey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:1285% → 84%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
84.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the OU 29Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
85.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the OU 29Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+15
84.6%
(04:53) Direct snap to PEGUES, JJ rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the OU30 (CARTER, Lewis;HALTON, Gracen), clock 04:46. PENALTY OU Face mask on STUTSMAN, Danny enforced 15 yards from the OU29 to the OU14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
84.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 7 yds to the OU 7Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-1
84.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 8Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+3
84.2%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the OU 5Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-3
83.8%
Antwane Wells Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11TD
17 plays · 92 yds · 2:2818% → 27%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
82.1%
Jackson Arnold run for 3 yds to the OU 11Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+12
81.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 12 yds to the OU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
81.6%
Jackson Arnold run for 12 yds to the OU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
81.6%
Jovantae Barnes run for 12 yds to the OU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
80.2%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the OU 49Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+19
80.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 19 yds to the MISS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
77.8%
Jackson Arnold run for 4 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+5
77.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 5 yds to the MISS 23Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+5
78.6%
Taylor Tatum run for 5 yds to the MISS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
78.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 14 yds to the MISS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
77.8%
Jovantae Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 5Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
78.9%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Suntarine Perkins for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 9Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
73.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 9 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
74.2%
Kneel down by DART, Jaxson at OM23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3528% → 28%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.8%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the OU 27Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
71.0%
Jackson Arnold run for 4 yds to the OU 31Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
70.7%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (Bauer Sharp) to the OU 26Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
71.4%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+13
72.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 52 yds , Micah Davis returns for 13 yds to the MISS 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:3172% → 82%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
71.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 20 yds to the OU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
73.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the OU 42Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
73.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the OU 36Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
72.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the OU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
74.3%
(11:24) DART, Jaxson pass to the left complete for 14 yards to WATKINS, Jordan caught at the OU20 and advanced to the OU20 (WALKER, Kani), out of bounds, clock 11:18. PENALTY OM Holding on POUNDS, Diego enforced 10 yards from the OU34 to the OU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+13
70.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 13 yds to the OU 31Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+2
73.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the OU 29Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+5
71.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the OU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
81.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 24 yds for a TD (Caden Davis PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0322% → 21%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
77.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 7 yds to the OU 18Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 3
OWN 18
0
77.5%
Taylor Tatum run for no gain to the OU 18Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
78.3%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 3
OWN 18
+56
79.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 56 yds , Micah Davis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:5078% → 90%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
77.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 12 yds to the MISS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
77.9%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Caiden Woullard for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 25Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 14
OWN 25
0
77.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+26
75.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Micah Davis for 26 yds to the OU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
79.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 14 yds to the OU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+34
80.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 34 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.5%
JJ Pegues run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 3:2012% → 11%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.0%
Jovantae Barnes run for 8 yds to the OU 33Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
87.3%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
88.0%
Jovantae Barnes run for 5 yds to the OU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
87.5%
Taylor Tatum run for 2 yds to the OU 40Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-10
87.3%
(03:37) BARNES, Jovantae rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the OU44 (PAUL, Chris), clock 03:32. PENALTY OU Holding on OZAETA, Heath enforced 10 yards from the OU40 to the OU30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 18
OWN 30
-8
88.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for a loss of 8 yards to the OU 22Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 26
OWN 22
+3
89.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 3 yds to the OU 25Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 23
OWN 25
0
89.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18FG
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:0189% → 92%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
88.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MISS 34Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+34
88.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 34 yds to the OU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
90.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 34Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+10
89.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 10 yds to the OU 24Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
89.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+42
92.4%
Caden Davis 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:509% → 7%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jake Roberts for 8 yds to the OU 33Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-3
90.0%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jacob Jordan for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 30Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
91.3%
Jackson Arnold run for 2 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
93.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1695% → 95%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
94.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 26Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+8
94.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
94.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
94.5%
Fraser Masin punt for 64 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:506% → 4%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
94.3%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 8 yds to the OU 10Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+15
94.5%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 15 yds to the OU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.5%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.1%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 4 yds to the OU 29Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
94.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 5 yds to the OU 34Similar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
94.8%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the OU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
94.6%
Taylor Tatum run for 3 yds to the OU 39Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+9
94.6%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 9 yds to the OU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
94.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to J.J. Hester for 19 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
94.2%
Taylor Tatum run for 6 yds to the MISS 27 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Paul Jr.) to the MISS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
94.1%
Bauer Sharp run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 14Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 11
OPP 14
-4
94.8%
Jackson Arnold run for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 18Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 15
OPP 18
-6
95.4%
Jackson Arnold sacked by JJ Pegues for a loss of 6 yards to the MISS 24Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 21
OPP 24
-6
96.1%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 6 yards to the MISS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2996% → 97%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.2%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the MISS 30Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
96.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MISS 33Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+4
96.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the MISS 37Similar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+24
96.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 47 yds , Peyton Bowen returns for 24 yds to the OU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:053% → 2%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.8%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
97.4%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 5 yds to the OU 45Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-6
97.5%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Suntarine Perkins for a loss of 6 yards to the OU 39Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 11
OWN 39
-8
97.8%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Akelo Stone for a loss of 8 yards to the OU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 4 yds · 1:3198% → 98%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
97.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the OU 30Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
97.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for no gain to the OU 30Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-2
98.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 32Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+5
98.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 5 yds to the OU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:062% → 2%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
98.2%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Sam Franklin for 7 yds to the OU 34 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Roughing the Passer on PEGUES, JJ enforced (JJ Pegues) to the OU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
98.1%
Jackson Arnold sacked by Suntarine Perkins for a loss of 3 yards to the OU 46Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 13
OWN 46
-9
98.2%
Jackson Arnold sacked by JJ Pegues for a loss of 9 yards to the OU 37Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 22
OWN 37
0
98.3%
Jackson Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 22
OWN 37
+24
98.3%
Jackson Arnold run for 24 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:34
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 24 yds for a TD (Caden Davis PAT MISSED)
+9.9
TD · Q3 5:20
JJ Pegues run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q2 0:06
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jacob Jordan for 9 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com