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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreAUB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:19 · Oscar Chapman punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:56: Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 14:59: Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 25 — UK win probability +4.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:53: Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +15.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 7:53: Jamarion Wilcox run for 1 yd to the UK 26 — UK win probability +6.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:11: Jarquez Hunter run for 45 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +12.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 7 of 7AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 11:28UK 4th & 6 at AUB 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.0% before the snapGo for it56.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call56.9%60% to makePunt56.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:19AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 9, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snapGo for it42.1%−0.227% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.3%average punt
- Q1 6:03UK 4th & 19 at AUB 49, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snapGo for it59.5%−1.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.7%average punt
- Q1 2:20AUB 4th & 13 at AUB 48, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snapGo for it36.7%−0.721% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.4%average punt
- Q2 13:40UK 4th & 15 at UK 15, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snapGo for it61.3%−2.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.7%average punt
- Q2 3:57AUB 4th & 4 at UK 9, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snapGo for it40.3%43% to convertField goalTheir call39.9%−0.489% to makePunt33.4%−6.9average punt
- Q2 2:31UK 4th & 13 at UK 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snapGo for it55.1%−0.720% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.8%average punt
- Q3 7:04UK 4th & 9 at UK 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snapGo for it35.9%−2.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.2%average punt
- Q3 3:41AUB 4th & 15 at UK 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snapGo for it63.4%−2.817% to convertField goalTheir call66.2%58% to makePunt58.6%−7.6average punt
- Q3 2:04UK 4th & 8 at UK 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snapGo for it35.8%−0.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.5%average punt
- Q4 4:39UK 4th & 2 at AUB 2, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.6%48% to convertField goal8.1%−0.594% to makePunt2.9%−5.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 8:24UK Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.7%97% to makeGo for two59.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:56AUB Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.1%97% to makeGo for two41.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:53AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.3%97% to makeGo for two59.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:11AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.3%97% to makeGo for two82.9%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1FG7 plays · 47 yds · 3:3247% → 48%
Q1 14:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
46.6%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Jason Patterson for 15 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
46.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 21 yds to the AUB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+3
47.5%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 3 yds to the AUB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0252% → 51%
Q1 10:37
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
48.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for no gain to the AUB 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD7 plays · 53 yds · 1:4849% → 51%
Q1 9:49
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+34
48.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 34 yds to the AUB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3850% → 49%
UKDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 1:3352% → 52%
Q1 6:52
3RD & 9
OPP 39
-10
52.0%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Keldric Faulk for a loss of 10 yards to the AUB 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 38 yds · 3:3948% → 45%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
51.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 4 yds to the AUB 14Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+25
52.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 25 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
51.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 5 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+7
51.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 7 yds to the UK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
51.6%
Payton Thorne sacked by Jamon Dumas-Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the AUB 43Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 18
OWN 43
+5
54.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 5 yds to the AUB 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 3:2854% → 55%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
53.6%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 8 yds to the UK 17Similar
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
55.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Josh Kattus for 3 yds to the UK 23Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-7
54.8%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Keldric Faulk for a loss of 7 yards to the UK 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8TD7 plays · 53 yds · 2:3244% → 50%
Q2 12:03
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+15
57.7%
(12:03) THORNE, Payton pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LAMBERT-SMITH, KeAndre thrown to the UK15, clock 11:58. PENALTY UK Pass Interference on NICHOLS, Terhyon enforced 15 yards to the UK30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
49.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9INT5 plays · 26 yds · 1:3652% → 53%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
52.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Jamarion Wilcox for 2 yds to the UK 21Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+22
52.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 22 yds to the UK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+3
53.0%
Brock Vandagriff pass intercepted Jay Crawford return for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10FG8 plays · 54 yds · 5:0748% → 53%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
51.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 22 yds to the UK 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
50.7%
Payton Thorne sacked by Keeshawn Silver for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 17Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+8
51.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 8 yds to the UK 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 1:2652% → 51%
Q2 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
52.0%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 12 yds to the UK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+10
54.5%
(03:01) VANDAGRIFF, Brock pass deep to the left incomplete intended for KEY, Dane thrown to the AUB44, clock 02:57. PENALTY AUB Holding on HARRIS, Kaleb enforced 10 yards from the UK40 to the UK50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
50
-3
54.6%
Brock Vandagriff run for a loss of 3 yards to the UK 47 Brock Vandagriff fumbled, recovered by UK Brock Vandagriff B. Vandagriff return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 13
OWN 47
+1
50.9%
Aidan Laros punt for 41 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 1 yd to the AUB 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12END OF HALF12 plays · 66 yds · 2:0951% → 56%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
44.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 9 yds to the UK 38Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+8
44.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 8 yds to the UK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-8
43.4%
Payton Thorne sacked by Deone Walker for a loss of 8 yards to the UK 38Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 18
OPP 38
+7
46.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 7 yds to the UK 31Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+12
45.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 12 yds to the UK 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+3
42.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 3 yds to the UK 14Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-7
44.4%
Payton Thorne sacked by J.J. Weaver for a loss of 7 yards to the UK 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13TD14 plays · 75 yds · 7:0651% → 71%
UKDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4935% → 33%
Q3 7:04
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+16
33.0%
Aidan Laros punt for 53 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 16 yds to the AUB 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15MISSED FG7 plays · 61 yds · 3:1167% → 69%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
28.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Robert Lewis for 11 yds to the UK 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
27.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 4 yds to the UK 20Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-8
27.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete Auburn Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Payton Thorne) to the UK 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3334% → 33%
Q3 3:08
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+15
34.4%
(03:08) WIMSATT, Gavin pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BROWN, Barion thrown to the AUB20, clock 03:02. PENALTY AUB Pass Interference on LEE, Kayin enforced 15 yards to the UK47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD9 plays · 80 yds · 4:4471% → 91%
UKDrive 18DOWNS14 plays · 66 yds · 7:3114% → 7%
Q4 11:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
13.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Khamari Anderson for 14 yds to the UK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-2
11.8%
Gavin Wimsatt sacked by Quientrail Jamison-Travis for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 40Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+20
9.0%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Dane Key for 20 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
7.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Khamari Anderson for no gain to the AUB 2Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-9
6.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass intercepted Kayin Lee return for 9 yds to the AUB 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19END OF GAME16 plays · 81 yds · 4:0695% → 98%
Q4 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
1.7%
ALSTON, Damari rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the UK1 (AFARI JR., Alex), clock 01:48. PENALTY Before the snap, AUB Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UK3 to the UK8. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
1.6%
(01:46) Kneel down by THORNE, Payton at UK9 (team loss of 1), clock 01:41.Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
1.5%
(01:04) Kneel down by THORNE, Payton at UK10 (team loss of 1), clock 01:01.Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
1.6%
(00:32) Kneel down by THORNE, Payton at UK10 (team loss of 0), clock 00:28.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:53
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
-15.9
TD · Q4 12:11
Jarquez Hunter run for 45 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
-12.5
TD · Q2 10:56
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
-6.8